Prospects for peace?

[JohnU]

They didn't even name the guys we got for Chapman.

The most sinful numbers in baseball history, akin to leaving Babe Ruth on the bench:

He posted a 1.63 ERA with 116 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings and 33 saves for the Reds, and has compiled 546 strikeouts in


319 career innings.

 

[JohnU]

Looking at the Reds transactions otherwise, it's clear they jettisoned a lot of mediocre or low-grade players in the past couple of months including about 90 percent of the bullpen.

Gone: Chappy, Parra, Marshall, Mattheus, Axlegrease, Lecure, Villarreal, Badenworse, Balester.

It does mean the pitching staff will be quite interesting this year since we don't really know if this Kiddie Korps rotation can get past the 4th inning.

Gotta believe they are figuring on Lorenzen, Cingrani, Finnegan and probably Jumbo Dumbo in the pen. Hopefully we won't spend a ton of dough on a closer, which would be quite counterproductive.

Hoover to close? Contreras didn't impress me.

Rotation still appears to be the same guys we saw, though I would still wager Arroyo ends up in Goodyear. Bailey will apparently assume the ace role when he is ready. So Desclafani, Iglesias, Lamb, maybe Arroyo till June, and after that ... Moscot or Stephenson (or both) ...

I don't see much change in the position players with the lone exception in (ahem) LEFT FUCKING FIELD.

Duvall and Suarez appear to the be go-to guys in LF. Yorman or Myman Rodriguez could be an option.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Any chance Urias is in the mix? Doubtful I suppose....

 

[JohnU]

I read a couple of columns discussing the LA prospect reservoir and it's hard to tell. The Reds claim to want somebody who is 'near to' or 'is' MLB-ready ... and I'd assume somebody they can control for 5 years. The guys the Dodgers have are probably not the guys they are willing to deal since they only get AC as a year rental.

Chappy just doesn't have the value he would have had as a starter, but even the Reds were too stupid 6 years ago to understand that.

I think they might end up with a top pitching prospect and a B-grade guy, which is probably OK since AC wasn't doing anything for the Reds except sell jerseys in the pro shop.

It's not what we get FOR him, it's what we didn't get FROM him.

 

[Redsfan1507]

We will have to wait and see, but Chapman has been undervalued about as much as the Reds could have made him without an injury- he is a lame duck FA, a 1 year rental in all probability, and of course he is a closer without a single start- IF those metrics were as a SP over 50 starts, he would be in the elite SP category looking for a quarter billion next fall, instead of half that. They might have not needed to make several of the deals done, redone and undone since he came up....And, he might be worth keeping, or at worst, get more in trade...Of course, IF is every back seat drivers fav word.

This team missed the (hardware) boat, and are reduced to swimming back to the (MLB relevance ) shore....if they don't drown or get eaten by sharks before then.


Pisses me off.

 

[JohnU]

The deal with the LA deal smells a little strange, it seems. I wondered why LA would want another ace closer but apparently the trade is taking on some new dimensions, not that anybody expected to get their news from this forum.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

A MLB investigation into domestic violence doesn't help his value.

Hard to believe in today's 24/7 media world that the domestic violence story wasn't in the news earlier. With no charges being filed due to lack of cooperation I guess it slid under the radar.

 

[JohnU]

Manfred can suspend Chapman which isn't good for the Reds in any case.

 

[Redsfan1507]

We don't know Manfred yet, just that he's Bud Selig's handpicked choice. Makes me all warm and fuzzy.

Dusty put his 2 cents (overvalued) in today on the Chapman news...and said that "minorities get accused quicker"....then babbled incoherently for 10 minutes about what a great guy Chapman is, and that he would like to have him (again). No doubt, AC was easier for Dusty to "manage" than Mr. Papelbon will be.

Reyes, Puig are also under similar scrutiny currently, as was Castro last year (who didn't "abuse" anyone, he
"just " plied a teammates 16 year old sister with liquor)...maybe these are just "cultural" misunderstandings ? Maybe Dusty is right, and we should just ignore minority shennanigans. That seems to be a popular opinion in D.C. these days.

Chapman wasn't charged, so I'm doubting there is much to it, legally...but it does delay a deal, that technically, might offer potential buyers time to fill the void elsewhere. MLB has to spin concern and due diligence, kinda like the PED thing, but I'm doubting MLB will allow it to keep a major media market from gaining an ace.

Personally, since the Reds can't imagine him as a starter, and aren't likely to need a closer too much with a 90 loss team next year, the might as well trade him before his value disappears completely. I'm sure whoever the Reds get for Chapman will make the Tony Perez for Woody Fryman trade look better.

 

[Redsfan1507]

See what the Braves got for Shelby Miller-who had a great ERA, but might have set a MLB record for consecutive starts without a win, on a team that arguably was better than our Reds:

Dansby Swanson is the highly regarded shortstop the Diamondbacks drafted first overall last June out of Vanderbilt. He's the first No. 1 overall pick to be traded while still in the minors since Adrian Gonzalez.

Ender Inciarte, 25, hit .303/.338/.408 with 27 doubles and 21 stolen bases last season to go along with very good defense at all three outfield spots. The Braves do need a center fielder, too, so this move immediately impacts the big-league roster.

Aaron Blair, 23, was ranked as the 40th-best prospect in baseball by Baseball America last spring. A 6-foot-5 right-handed pitcher, Blair had a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 160 1/3 innings across both Double-A and Triple-A last season. So he's close to big-league ready.

That sounds like a ton for Miller, so it makes sense now that reports are indicating Gabe Speier is going to Arizona as well. The 20-year-old southpaw has now been traded three times this year. He went from Boston to Detroit in the Yoenis Cespedes deal and then went to Atlanta for Cameron Maybin. Now he's with Arizona. In Class A last season, Speier had a 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 44 relief innings.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What the Padres got for Kimbrel-

Arguably an equal to Chapman as a closer:

The key to the deal was undoubtedly outfielder Manuel Margot, who immediately becomes the Padres' top prospect. No. 25 on the overall Top 100, Margot is a terrific all-around athlete who reached Double-A in 2015 at age 20.

Margot's plus speed (a 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale) really stands out on both sides of the ball. He stole 39 bases in 2015, giving him 132 steals in 342 career games since he signed for $800,000 out of the Dominican Republic in July 2011. Margot's wheels give him plenty of range in center field, where he will undoubtedly stay long-term.

Shortstop Javier Guerra becomes San Diego's No. 3 prospect. Signed a year after Margot out of Panama, the infielder -- ranked No. 76 on the Top 100 -- made his full-season debut in 2015 and was a South Atlantic League All-Star.

Left-hander Logan Allen becomes the first player traded under the "Trea Turner rule." Last year, Turner became the very widely known player to be named in Preller's deal with the Nationals and Rays last winter, but he had to stay with the Padres until midseason since draftees weren't allowed to be dealt until a year following the Draft. The rule was changed so that a draftee could be included in a deal after the conclusion of the World Series.

Allen, the Red Sox's eighth-round pick last June, who got $725,000 to sign out of IMG Academy, showed improved velocity during the spring of his senior season and has the potential to have four Major League average or better offerings to go along with a good feel for pitching.

Carlos Asuaje slots in at No. 19.

The 2013 draftee out of Nova Southeastern had a huge first full season in 2014, but he wasn't quite as effective with the bat when he moved to Double-A in 2015. Asuaje does have an incredibly advanced eye at the plate and controls the strike zone well while showing more pop than one would expect from a 5-foot-9 infielder.

While Asuaje has seen time at multiple positions, he was playing second base exclusively in the Arizona Fall League at the time of the trade, and was performing well there, hitting .316 over 14 games.


...and the Reds for Chapman ? We'll see.

 

[JohnU]

Presumably the Dodgers are still the team he's going to, unless the brass at LaLa Central got cold feet.
I honestly don't see why they want Chapman with Jansen as their closer. Having either of these guys as a setup shows the brain-dead logic of how managers operate.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Shelby Miller deal is in the same vein as the Mat Latos deal. At least the Dbacks got a low level prospect kicker, but still a lot to give up for a #2 SP that didn't pitch as well the second half of 2015. Add that with the Cards evaluation he was trending the wrong way when they dealt him, it's potentially a terrible deal for Arizona.

If I were picking between Kimbrel and Chapman based strictly on performance, it's Chapman. The area where Kimbrel would have more trade value is in team control and knowing the cost associated with it. Kimbrel is under contract through the 2018 season with a annual salary that is less than what Chapman would be projected to cost over the same time period.

I see a later report where Dusty Baker changed his tune about the alleged domestic violence story. Amazing how many ignorant people change their opinion when their continued employment reguires them to.

 

[JohnU]

What I heard from Baker's rambling press conference was telling in a couple of ways.

First, why did anything think he should be commenting on a domestic abuse case? If he knew what was going on, the lawyers would tell him that a press conference was bad form.

But what Baker DID say that slipped between the lines was about the violence not always being about the woman, that sometimes the man is the victim. Why would Baker bring that up? I think he knows something.

That there were no charges filed is irrelevant. Most minorities in any city choose to leave the 'man' out of it, regardless of financial status. Still, I got no insight on that either.

The handgun issue is confusing.

Manfred, if he suspends AC, will be punishing the Reds for something they had no control over, being as this is a case where the team needs to unload talent ahead of losing it to free agency. I can see 30 games for suspension, which would be about 6 innings of work for Chappy.

Baker, meanwhile, needs to say, "this is not my area of expertise, so I will not go on record about it."

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree with everything you said John with the exception of Dusty knowing anything about the incident in question. I think he was just trying to defend a former player when he should have simply stated he didn't know anything about the incident.

WLWT has reported the prosecutors in Florida are revisiting the case to determine if charges are warranted.

If Chapman is suspended the days may not count toward MLB service time and he might not be a free agent in 2017. It would have to be more than a month suspension to leave him short of 6 years service time by the end of 2016.

 

[JohnU]

I understand the part about service time. As well, I don't think I know enough about the domestic violence matter to interpret it beyond what I heard. Seems like the reporter was off-base in asking about it, and Dusty was a doofus for playing into it.

Either way, the Reds could get another year out of AC, but they still won't make him a starter with a rotation that can't get the ball to the bullpen anyway.

Sigh.

 

[JohnU]

The Parrots dealing Neil Walker to the mets for Niese is an interesting move.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Pirates are being forced to make some tough decisions due to budget constraints. Non-tendering Pedro Alvarez and trading Walker were the early choices Neal Huntington has made. Between Josh Harrison and Jung Ho Kang I guess Huntington feels he has 3rd and 2nd covered at a lower cost and could fill another void while saving a few million in acquiring a back of the rotation guy like Jon Niese.

Interested to see if Huntington can keep the Pirates winning as he shuffles the roster to stay on budget.

 

[JohnU]

The Alvarez decision is interesting because it suggests teams are losing patience with bad fielding low percentage hitters who strike out a lot. That does include Jay Bruce, whose outfield play is not as good as the Reds media pretends it is.
Bruce will hang around but I wonder what his trade value really is.
The Parrots and the Mets both dealing from a position of strength, so neither is really treading water on that Walker-Niese trade.

 

[JohnU]

It appears the Cubs are trying to mix in some established talent. I don't think Heyward is the pennant maker but he sure doesn't hurt.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree with John's assessment of Jay Bruce. Earlier this season I had two Pirates' fans sitting behind me at GABP and when Bruce came to bat one of them said to the other that Jay Bruce was the Reds' version of Pedro Alvarez.

I see Alvarez being signed by some AL team where he can DH. I think someone will be interested in Bruce, but he won't bring the return the Reds are expecting. Admittedly the Reds were underwhelmed by the trade offers they recieved. I think the Reds over value their own players and often overpay for acquisitions, but waiting for the market to settle may increase some of the value for Bruce and Co. as the free agent market thins or injuries occur during ST and early season.

The Reds always seem to make their deals after the Winter Meetings, I guess this year is no different with the WM coming and going already.

But hey, they did draft OF Jake Cave in the rule 5 draft. Add him to the other seven dwarfs competing for the position. Maybe they should try kissing some frogs instead.