Mr. Negative comments on ADP RB's

[averagejoe]

Looking at the 2014 RB rankings, only 15 RB had 150 points or better. It may be an indication of how valuable - and how limited - a decent RB could be this season.

Needless to say, Mr. Negative is very pessimistic. Here are his comments on today's (7/19) ADP rankings:

1. Adrian Peterson > Will probably tear something, or beat a puppy. ASPCA will protest.
   
2. Jamaal Charles > seriously hurts himself every 4th season. It's the 4th season.
   
3. Eddie Lacy > offense is so good they run out the clock with James Stark while Lacy sits.
   
4. LeVeon Bell > 3-game suspension will give him some time to find some Mary Jane.
   
5. Marshawn Lynch > He's a 29-year old beast that averages 295 carries... scary.
   
6. Arian Foster > Another 29-year old that averages 304 carries... on a rebuilding offense.
   
7. CJ Anderson > in the last 12 years, the Broncos have had 10 different leading rushers.
   
8. LeSean McCoy > finished ranked 13th in a hi-powered Philly offense - now on putrid Bills.
   
9. Matt Forte > will be 30, and only had 3 games with more than 20 carries.
   
10. DeMarco Murray > only 1 season where he played all 16 games - last year. Look elsewhere.
    
11. Jeremy Hill > Gio still figures into his touches.
    
12. Justin Forsett > will be 30, so the Ravens drafted rookie Buck Allen.
    
13. Melvin Gordon > Awesome, wonderful, the next Trent Richardson.
    
14. Frank Gore > at 32, always seems to be defy the odds. Optimism is a terrible thing.
    
15. Alfred Morris > yards per game has gone down each season.
    
16. Mark Ingram > too many mouths to feed in this offense.
    
17. Lamar Miller > no garuantees.
    
18. Latavius Murray > so good the Raiders aren't sure how to use him.
    
19. Joseph Randle > McFadden to challenge? Must say a lot about Randle's security.
    
20. Carlos Hyde > never really got a chance to prove himself, small sample size of work.

 

[wilwhite]

From your list, Lacy and Hill look the guys to have. Your complaints about them are things that were true last year as well.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Looking at the 2014 RB rankings, only 15 RB had 150 points or better. It may be an indication of how valuable - and how limited - a decent RB could be this season.

Needless to say, Mr. Negative is very pessimistic. Here are his comments on today's (7/19) ADP rankings:

1. Adrian Peterson > Will probably tear something, or beat a puppy. ASPCA will protest.
   
2. Jamaal Charles > seriously hurts himself every 4th season. It's the 4th season.
   
3. Eddie Lacy > offense is so good they run out the clock with James Stark while Lacy sits.
   
4. LeVeon Bell > 3-game suspension will give him some time to find some Mary Jane.
   
5. Marshawn Lynch > He's a 29-year old beast that averages 295 carries... scary.
   
6. Arian Foster > Another 29-year old that averages 304 carries... on a rebuilding offense.
   
7. CJ Anderson > in the last 12 years, the Broncos have had 10 different leading rushers.
   
8. LeSean McCoy > finished ranked 13th in a hi-powered Philly offense - now on putrid Bills.
   
9. Matt Forte > will be 30, and only had 3 games with more than 20 carries.
   
10. DeMarco Murray > only 1 season where he played all 16 games - last year. Look elsewhere.
    
11. Jeremy Hill > Gio still figures into his touches.
    
12. Justin Forsett > will be 30, so the Ravens drafted rookie Buck Allen.
    
13. Melvin Gordon > Awesome, wonderful, the next Trent Richardson.
    
14. Frank Gore > at 32, always seems to be defy the odds. Optimism is a terrible thing.
    
15. Alfred Morris > yards per game has gone down each season.
    
16. Mark Ingram > too many mouths to feed in this offense.
    
17. Lamar Miller > no garuantees.
    
18. Latavius Murray > so good the Raiders aren't sure how to use him.
    
19. Joseph Randle > McFadden to challenge? Must say a lot about Randle's security.
    
20. Carlos Hyde > never really got a chance to prove himself, small sample size of work.

Lot of truth here, but you know you got to go with one of them.

 

[wilwhite]

Lot of truth here, but you know you got to go with one of them.

Or... go QB/TE/WR/WR and then 7 RBs. The way RBs pan out each year that wouldn't be nuts at all.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Or... go QB/TE/WR/WR and then 7 RBs. The way RBs pan out each year that wouldn't be nuts at all.

Each his own, I rather throw the dice on a RB early. Tell me has anyone one in either the A league or B league ever won using your formula? Would you actually have the guts to do this, if you were still in the leagues or you just being the devil advocate?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Or... go QB/TE/WR/WR and then 7 RBs. The way RBs pan out each year that wouldn't be nuts at all.

love the strategy... But this is not the season to try it... You will likely not get Gronk with a round 2, and Graham is not worth a round 2...

 

[broncosmitty]

I can remember a few games when Chicago didn't bother even trying to run the ball. Two of them were against Detroit....

John Fox won't do that. But just like Ponce DeLeon, he hasn't found The Fountain of Youth yet. I love Forte, but I'm cautious with him this year. (Picking 10th in my money league, wouldn't pass on him if he's there at 15. But he won't be. Cuz I might not be able to resist if he's there at 10.)

10 out of 12 surprised me for Denver. Not sure what I thought it'd be, but not that high. I don't think I could even name them in order. (Is Olandis Gary involved? Davis can't be, is he? I bet he is...)I'm avoiding that team like the plague anyway, for various reason. Most of them pertain to that ever elusive Fountain of Youth, or more importantly, Brock Osweilser.

 

[broncosmitty]

Completely agree with Mr. negative on Gordon.

Only Gordon is more likable, as a dude. Not optimistic at all for him as a pro RB.

 

[leftypower]

Maybe I'm sadistic but I'm just happy to have two on our dynasty team that made the list. .... at least they are worth mention. .....

 

[averagejoe]

10 out of 12 surprised me for Denver. Not sure what I thought it'd be, but not that high. I don't think I could even name them in order. (Is Olandis Gary involved? Davis can't be, is he? I bet he is...)I'm avoiding that team like the plague anyway, for various reason. Most of them pertain to that ever elusive Fountain of Youth, or more importantly, Brock Osweilser.

Actually, that was a surprising stat to me too. In the last 12 years, the only 2 to repeat were McGahee and Moreno. (I did count Moreno twice since he did have a break in between.) Noteworthy that Anderson led the team last year - so a true pessimist could say it's unlikely that he do it again.

The rest: Portis (03), Droughns (04), Mike Anderson (05), Tatum Bell (06), Selvin Young (07), Hillis (08), Moreno (09-10), McGahee (11-12), Moreno (13), CJ Anderson (14)


Some stats can be misleading too. If you just focus on "rushing" for instance since we know that most backs can be heavily involved in the passing game.

 

[SteelersPride]

Or... go QB/TE/WR/WR and then 7 RBs. The way RBs pan out each year that wouldn't be nuts at all.

you mean like my dynasty roster @wilwhite

 

[broncosmitty]

Maybe I'm sadistic but I'm just happy to have two on our dynasty team that made the list. .... at least they are worth mention. .....

So much for being happy I only had one one Mr. negatives radar, at #20 no less. Ughhh....

 

[broncosmitty]

Actually, that was a surprising stat to me too. In the last 12 years, the only 2 to repeat were McGahee and Moreno. (I did count Moreno twice since he did have a break in between.) Noteworthy that Anderson led the team last year - so a true pessimist could say it's unlikely that he do it again.

The rest: Portis (03), Droughns (04), Mike Anderson (05), Tatum Bell (06), Selvin Young (07), Hillis (08), Moreno (09-10), McGahee (11-12), Moreno (13), CJ Anderson (14)


Some stats can be misleading too. If you just focus on "rushing" for instance since we know that most backs can be heavily involved in the passing game.

Whefffff, Selvin Young, no way would I have I got that one. Even if I used a LifeLine.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

I will be one of those hoarding RBs in the middle rounds this year. My top two RBs are Lacy and Bell, and I'm not even sure about them. Lacy was a team killer last year until mid year, when you most likely were already out of the playoffs. Bell was used and abused - something that drags the YPC down the following year.

I like the WR/WR strategy this year, plenty of QBs late and you can load up on RBs in the middle rounds.

 

[TREFF]

I will be one of those hoarding RBs in the middle rounds this year. My top two RBs are Lacy and Bell, and I'm not even sure about them. Lacy was a team killer last year until mid year, when you most likely were already out of the playoffs. Bell was used and abused - something that drags the YPC down the following year.

I like the WR/WR strategy this year, plenty of QBs late and you can load up on RBs in the middle rounds.

Must be fun to play in leagues where there are RB's to hoard in the middle rounds, I've never found one

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

This rookie class at RB is one to buy in on, so yes, I will be the one hoarding the Coleman/Abdullah/DukeJ trifecta in the middle rounds, along with some bang for the ADP vets. I am pushing in my chips on WR vets in the early stage and then picking my spots carefully when it comes to QB/TE. I will not go chasing RBs early (this is my anthem this year). I typically draft 6 RBs (15 spots), so I figure to grab 3 vets. Just depends where I sprinkle them in around my rookie targets.

 

[TREFF]

This rookie class at RB is one to buy in on, so yes, I will be the one hoarding the Coleman/Abdullah/DukeJ trifecta in the middle rounds, along with some bang for the ADP vets. I am pushing in my chips on WR vets in the early stage and then picking my spots carefully when it comes to QB/TE. I will not go chasing RBs early (this is my anthem this year). I typically draft 6 RBs (15 spots), so I figure to grab 3 vets. Just depends where I sprinkle them in around my rookie targets.

That'd be nice, good luck. I know any of my leagues that'll never happen though as two of those guys will be gone by the end of the fourth. Hopen it pans out for you though

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

That'd be nice, good luck. I know any of my leagues that'll never happen though as two of those guys will be gone by the end of the fourth. Hopen it pans out for you though

Wow, you've got multiple leagues that will draft multiple rookies (Coleman/Abdullah/DukeJ) by the end of the fourth? Are they keeper leagues? I can't fathom two of Coleman/Abdullah/DukeJ warranting top 40-48 picks. If that's the case, I'd be drafting an additional vet RB2 that I thought I no shot at drafting in round 5 (Ellington/Miller/Morris/Blount/Randle/LMurray/Gore/Ingram/Spiller/Hyde/Gio - just to name a few I like). I'd be fine with that.

 

[TREFF]

Not necessarily rookies. .just RB's...they fly off the board and your looking at crumbs by round 5-6..not just the one we're all in, MBBRL, but also a couple other money leagues. Thes a few gems still to be had, but by and large if you want a RB who is at the minimum the lead guy in a committee, you'd better get him early

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

A typical draft I see is about 50% RB through the first 4 rounds, roughly 24 in a 12 man league. After that, the drafts usually turn more WR-centric, leveling out the picks to roughly 1RB:1WR by round six. Most of the ADP's I look at also follow this trend, whether people are subconsciously following the handy ADP on the web site or just naturally filling out their squad. I find that the group of rookies that starts with Yeldon and ends with Abdullah fall in the range immediately after the 24 top RBs get plucked, usually starting in round 5. I spend my mocks filling in one RB vet followed by Coleman and Abdullah, and later Duke. I would change my approach for a non-ppr league a tad, probably take a RB1 - and not put much effort into getting all 3 of those rookies. I've been touting this rookie RB class since February and I will put my money (dues) where my mouth is.