Maholm

[JohnU]

Reds have signed the lefty with an invitation to spring training.
Numbers aren't gaudy which is why he's out there.
I can see this guy being a 6th or 7th starter initially but is probably higher than that.
Not a bad signing if he can still get people out.
Won't strike anybody out. We save that for our closer.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I saw a couple different guys last year- he looked like a very control dependent guy- worries me in GABP. They need a LHSP- I keep getting ill watching them overlook Chapman for dog food.

 

[JohnU]

As a 5th starter, (if he makes the rotation, which seems a fair assessment) ... he only needs to get lucky half the time.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I liked the rotation better when Leake was the 5th guy. Now he's maybe #2. Reminds me a bit of days of Harang and Arroyo. There are about 4 possibles and usually lucky to get 1 pleasant surprise out of that number of long shots. We have to hope Bailey comes back strong and they're close enough not to dump Cueto halfway into the year, or this rotation might look like the days of Jimmy Haines.

 

[JohnU]

Some guy named Desclafani that they got in the Latos deal seems to be penciled in as a No. 4 or 5, with Cingrani. I do not think Cingrani can get people out in the big leagues.
That also leaves Holmberg and maybe Daniel Corcino. Any of those guys is an OK switchoff for Simon overall, though anybody who can have a half-season like Simon did will have to go some. All I can hope for Cueto is that he pitches like he's worth $200 million.
Bailey will be all right, I think.
Leake won't be any different.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Desciafani, Corcino, Holmberg, Cingrani...might wind up having to choose the 2 (or 3 if Bailey is out) of the least bad choices for the rotation. At this point, they all look like last choice, 5th starter iffy guys to me, at this stage...trouble if you need more than 1 to suddenly be Latos, Simon, Leake, Arroyo type pitchers....who by the way ARE they guys being replaced in this revolving door rotation.

Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake and Simon (who basically replaced Arroyo) didn't sound as good to me as Chapman instead of Simon, but the Reds seemed to be happy enough with it to trade Broxton for a bowl of cereal and destine Chapman to the bullpen... now suddenly that rotation is less Simon and Latos for good, and Bailey is a questionmark. That's 60% of a damned fine rotation that had some trouble getting enough offense to win pitching as well as they did...now, the offense hasn't changed much, but that rotation sure has. It's an obvious issue, unless a few of these new guys can suddenly be on someone's must start list.

Hard to imagine if Desciafani & Holmberg were expected to be answers in 2015, why the teams that traded them didn't keep them. I suspect they thought Latos and Simon were better near term answers and didn't mind paying more for that assumption. Teams do make mistakes. I just hope the mistake wasn't the Reds. Actually, I imagine the Reds know what they're getting, and they don't expect 2015 talent replacement for those traded guys, they expect payroll relief. BUT- It still doesn't sound like it was enough to sign Cueto for market rate, and Byrd's salary isn't less than they were already paying Ludwick. They gained back some Broxton salary, but without doing the math, it appears all that might not even be enough to address the contractual raises of Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Chapman, Bailey, Mesoraco... even young guys like Frazier and Cozart and Hamilton and an arbitration or two will cost more going forward.

If the Reds want to truly contend, they have to get full value for the long contract guys, and hope the non-free agent eligible cheap guys play well enough to deserve bigger dollars later too. If either of those doesn't happen, it's going to be less than the fans want to see.

 

[JohnU]

I think Holmberg fit into their plans for 2015. I can't see how Desclafani emerged from being a trivia question in Miami to a rotation guy within 10 minutes of the trade announcement. I agree, I'd like this more if Leake were closer to a No. 2 guy than a No. 5 guy.
Maholm does make Cingrani more likely to be in the bullpen, despite the pablum Price is selling ... Cingrani is not a rotation pitcher. He could have been.
Could be, the Reds are not done dealing yet. And the Iglesias kid is apparently the real deal.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Holmberg and DeSclafani have both been traded twice since being drafted. Two other teams didn't think they were keepers, but the Reds' coveted them both. I'm not buying it.

Maholm is coming off August surgery to repair a torn ACL and pitched ineffectively out of the bull pen prior to the injury. He's a soft tosser that was never all that to begin with.

Cingrani stunk up the league before getting demoted and immediately went on the DL and hasn't pitched since. So now he's somehow improved while sitting on the couch.

Combine that with Bailey's late season surgery and Cueto's propensity to be hurt every other season and this team is going to probably use 10 different starting pitchers this year.

The 2015 pitching staff may perform more like the 2011 staff before it's all said and done.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Iglesias played about half a year in Detroit- I saw a few games- I don't think he's better than Cozart defensively, but he's decent. He isn't going to hit a ton, but might be easy to do better than Cozart, who seems to have somehow gotten worse every year at the plate. If nothing else, maybe he gives some other insurance around the infield. I like him better than some of the old utility guys the last few years.

 

[Redsfan1507]

We both said Iglesias , but I assume you meant Suarez ? SS they got from Detroit for Simon- that's who I was referring to.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You might have been referring to Iglesias the pitcher ?? I know nothing about this guy. Thought he was a single A player.

 

[JohnU]

I realize the front office's job is to sell the team to the fans. I would imagine that, as a business, winning is more of a personal thing than a business event.

OK, the obvious stated ... one would assume that the front office and the dugout staff know what they have. The problem is, they can't share that with the fans so as to screw up the first point about it being a business. Nobody would buy a ticket to know that Rudy, Tootie, Huey, Dewey and Hines were the starting pitchers.

Price is probably hoping he gets lucky and finds a Simon-like pitcher from this scrap heap.

I am thinking Bailey will be all right, though. No reason ... just I think he will be.

Cueto will still be the 2nd-best righthander in the division.

Maybe Manny Parra will surprise us.

 

[JohnU]

We both said Iglesias , but I assume you meant Suarez ? SS they got from Detroit for Simon- that's who I was referring to.

Iglesias is the Cuban pitcher they signed last fall. Evidently he is on the 25-man roster.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think they let Parra walk didn't they ? If so, he probably will suprise us...pitching like Snady Koufax against us for someone else.

The payroll probably dictates they have to reach for a rotation- Corcino looked impressive at times last year. I don't have enough knowledge to judge on DeSclafani, but a team noted for spotting cheap young pitching like the Rays dumping him makes me skeptical of him. Holmberg is a lefty, and that helps, but I think he needs to become Tom Browning or at least a lefty Leake to survive. If you have a real fastball, it makes other pitches weapons, but without one, everyone can just stay back and pound. I think Hiolmberg falls into that category.

Cingrani had good minor league stats, but anyone can see the difference- they swing at that collarbone high fastball a lot more there- and from what I saw, that's about all he has. MLB hitters became content to lay off and make him throw it in the zone, and of course, high pitch counts and predictable fastballs often equal runs. Everyone seemed to believe Chapman was a one pitch pitcher limited to a bullpen role because of that...but Cingrani escaped notice of that ? Hmmm...neither was correct assessment IMO-

Chapman may have the best fastball in MLB history, and a very good slider, and armed with those 2 weapons, his third pitch could be underhand, and he would get along just fine as a SP. Cueto-Bailey-Leake-Chapman and whoever they found for #5 would be more impressive than two 5.00 ERA's in the rotation combining for 25-30 losses and Chapman waiting on 40 save chances a year. Personally, I'd reach for a closer and start Chapman. They'd sell out every 5th start anyway.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Ah.... I do remember Iglasias now. He's a skinny little guy with a big arm. Good thing about Cubans is, not much of a scouting report on them, at least at first.

What about Sean Marshall ? Is he going to pitch or be the next Reds recipient of the biggest salary year in his career while on the DL ? Seems like the Reds have one of those every year. He's not a closer, but if he bounced back it would really help not relying on Parra as much.

I suppose Parra IS still on the roster, as is J.J. Hoover, which truly amazes me. That guy was absolutely horrible last year.

 

[JohnU]

Hoover just could not command the pitch he needed to get hitters out. He has bullpen stuff.
If the Reds did anything right, it was to not go out and try to buy a bullpen.
Still, with that hideous offense, a bullpen is the only way to have a chance.
For free, I can still be optimistic. When Kansas City wins, all fans have a chance.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

They couldn't afford to go out and buy another bull pen, they still owe on the one they bought a couple years ago.

Parra at $3.5M and Marshall at $6.5M, is it just me or is that a lot for a couple loogys?

Hoover is still MLB minimum, and that might be over paying a bit. When he was with Atlanta the scouting report was he lacked an out pitch. Much hasn't changed unless you consider the out in "that ones out of here" pitch he serves up on a much too often occasion.

 

[JohnU]

I don't know what a Loogy ought to cost but the idea of building these premium bullpens is a lot of hogwash. If a guy is in the majors and can't get 3 people out, he ought to not be in the majors.

 

[Redsfan1507]

IMO, current bullpen market value is FAR more about their agents and the MLBPA contract structure than their physical worth to a team.

I understand the LOOGY concept...especially in a day where no one hits a curveball well. I don't think their opportunities to win or save a game in that situation are frequent enough to warrant spending $10M a year on them though.

By definition, a short reliever is a guy that's not good or durable enough to be a starting pitcher, or a closer. The best of the worst pitchers on the team are now called "set up" men. They are often preceded by a "7th inning specialist"...as if the term had significance to strategy (it doesn't-unless you believe fans don[t notice sub-par talent after singing "Take me out to the ballgame") or a LOOGY or two.

At the risk of sounding unfairly critical, I find it odd the Reds frequent use of the LOOGY. They are sent in to get one or maybe two lefty hitters out. This assumes use of the curveball, because without break on the ball moving away from his wheelhouse, a hitter is as likely to hit a straight fastball as well tossed from either arm.

I've watched a lot of Manny Parra and Sean Marshall.....the chances of them walking THE guy they are "specialized" in getting out, is already significant....then, (especially Marshall) they throw FASTBALLS to the lefty instead of curveballs....and often when those two questionable sabotage tactics result in the lefty hitter on base- the Reds often reward them by leaving them in to face a righty hitter or two...of which Marshall's pitch of choice is the CURVEBALL. It looks like these guys sometimes try to make up for lack of talent by being stupid.

Hoover might be a blown arm in waiting. For a guy with legs as big as his, he sure doesn't use them much. He has a plus speed, wild fastball and a breaking pitch that alternately stays up, and/or bounces two feet short, too much. He's usually behind in the count, and misses so badly so often, he doesn't get many chases out of the zone. I don't believe the Reds reluctance to send him down helped his confidence any. This guy needs to throw a lot more quality strikes- because he's not fooling anyone.

Sam LeCure is a hardworking guy that lives on control. Must be pretty brave too, considering the stuff he can't bring to the mound. Jumbo Diaz suprised everyone- he looked effective and has a couple of power pitches that serve a closer well. Can he stay in condition and repeat ? Lets hope so. Chapman, is of course unhittable. He would be equally unhittable as a starter, IMO, just for 5 times the amount of outs per appearance, but the Reds seem to be content not using him in the rotation....or the post season, apparently.

The rest of the pen is a mystery to me.

I think the idea, is to not need these guys that much....

If the Reds hit, played defense and pitched better before the 7th inning, the bullpen last year would have looked better. If they don't do those things any better this year, I don't think the middle bullpen is going to take us to the playoffs on their backs, no matter how good they are. In a perfect world, I think the bullpen should be filled with young power arms blocked by better pitchers at higher value assignments on the team, and veteran or two with a trick the league hasn't caught up to yet. Unfortunately, most pens are full of nail biters, last chancers and cluelessly wild, one trick ponies.

 

[JohnU]

Personally, I would urge/encourage/demand that starting pitchers throw 150 pitches (not 100) with some exceptions. That gets the starter through the 7th inning most games. Naturally, there are conditions on that relating to the need to pinch hit with a team that averages fewer runs a game than the league average ERA.
But to make that 150 useful, these guys need to learn to throw strikes and see that their opponent's BA doesn't go from .180 in the first 3 innings to .340 in the next 2 innings.

Alleging the best pitchers on the team are the starters, it stands to reason that replacing a starter with a "middle reliever" is a downgrade. I suppose stats geeks will come up with an argument for this; I honestly don't care. I do know that 7 innings of Cueto is better than 6 innings of Cueto and 2 innings of some guys who are lucky to be on a big-league roster.
All pursuing the same objective -- get the ball to Chapman.
It's great theater but it's worth a 76-win season.