Is Giannis overlooked/taken for granted?

[msgkings322]

The NBA thread is too long, sometimes I want specific discussions in their own thread LOL

My favorite economics + other stuff blogger (Scott Sumner) is a big Bucks fan so some bias here, but he makes really good points that Giannis should be MVP this year (even though he has very little buzz, people think he got 2 so he's done, time to move on to others)

Here are his comments, he makes a good case (and I'll post a good rebuttal comment too, mainly that in Jokic vs Giannis, offense matters more than defense (this can be applied to Jokic vs Embiid too)

Comments added below

 

[msgkings322]

Ajit, Certainly Jokic and Giannis are the only two reasonable choices, and it’s close. But most straw polls I’ve seen don’t have Giannis even near the top.


I’d say that this year Giannis and Jokic are close in terms of offense. Even if Jokic were slightly ahead, Giannis as far, far better on defense. He can guard all 5 positions. People recall his 50 points in the championship game, but the Bucks likely don’t win that without his 5 blocks.


BTW, Giannis has already won two MVPs, and this year he’s playing much better than either of those years. He’s very likely now to become the first NBA player ever to average over 30 on more than 60% shooting. That’s really hard to do!


Also, Jokic tends to mostly play with Denver’s top players (their starting 5 is excellent.) Giannis plays lots of minutes with mediocre reserves. When he plays with starters, the Bucks have the league’s best net rating.


Lineups Advanced | Stats | NBA.com


I’m told there’s voter bias for two reasons. Voters don’t like his perceived role in getting the coach fired, and they find his style of play to be less aesthetically pleasing than other superstars.

 

[logic]

I don’t buy either of those reasons. I think it is because the Bucks are forgotten. The Celtics have run away with the conference, so they haven’t been in consideration for the top seed and besides their championship run they have ‘disappointed’ in the playoffs.

Oh, and @buckalis

 

[msgkings322]

Rebuttal from a poster there:

@SS


Apologies for the long post.


I will admit that I know the NFL, especially at the finer micro levels far more than the NBA. But here are my retorts:


I actually think Doncic is the MVP of the league and if anything the voter bias works against him – his team is currently in the 5th seed. He is perceived to have a superstar sidekick and thus gets dinged. If anything, he has been a slightly less efficient version of Jokic but on a much higher usage rate mostly because the team can’t do anything without him. That’s true not only because for most of the season the team around him was injured(including Kyrie), but comparatively speaking – its likely the weakest roster 3-10 than any other team besides maybe Phoenix that prides itself as a real contender.


As for Giannis and Jokic. I would argue a few things philosophically here. I understand the simple argument. Jokic offense > Giannis Offense, but Giannis Defense >>>>>> Jokic Defense; therefore Giannis Offense + Defense > Jokic Offense + Defense. But here I think this equation misses a few things:


Offense is more important than defense even if literally half the game is played on defense. And Jokic’s offense isn’t entirely captured in the numbers imo. Jokic’s unicorn offensive ability is really about being a hub on offense with a minuscule turnover rate. On top of the fact that his presence turns a lot of non-threatening offensive players into threats. Even one dimensional offensive threats are amplified by Jokic. So in that regard, I don’t think Jokic’s impact on offense can be so easily captured.


I would also submit that both players are non-traditional in the sense that they both need slightly optimized roster construction to function. You mentioned Giannis guarding 1-5, but one must take into account Giannis is such a non threat as a shooter and requires floor space to operate in traffic. He can handle the ball, but its not his best attribute and frankly there is a reason the Bucs lean heavy on guards who can play make and shoot.


All that to say, I think both players are very similar but in the opposite direction and its the fact that offense is more important than defense that tips Jokic to me over Giannis.

 

[msgkings322]

Rebuttal to the rebuttal:

Ajit, I think if you watched all 82 Bucks games like I do you might have a different view. You said:


“He can handle the ball, but its not his best attribute”


I think it is. The NBA is full of 7 footers who can dunk. Why aren’t they getting 30 points on 61% shooting? Because they lack the skill to get to the rim. There’s never been a 7 footer who can handle the ball like Giannis; that’s why he gets to the rim. He’s like a 7-foot Westbrook. And that causes defenses to collapse into a “wall” which leaves mediocre players like Beasley wide open, allowing them to have career years.


He’s become an excellent passer, especially when moving at a high speed. This year I’ve seen him make some great passes that literally no one else can make. That’s not to deny that Jokic and Luka make more great passes, but some of Giannis’s passes have an insanely high level of difficulty.


To be clear, I think Jokic deserved the MVP in each of the past three (not two) years. But this year Giannis has risen to another level, and I’d give him the nod.


On Luka, I may be biased because the Bucks swept them, and Giannis looked better in the two games. Admittedly that’s not a statistically significant sample. And Luka’s defense sucks.


Yes, Giannis needs spacing. But in today’s NBA almost everyone is a capable 3 point shooter, including all the Bucks other starters and reserves. He’s been hurt by management incompetence, such as trading away Donte DiVincenzo for Serge Ibaka’s corpse, and horrific drafting for a decade. The Bucks have less young talent than any other team in the league. He might have several titles by now if Bucks guards had not forgotten how to shoot in the playoffs.


Even though Bucks teams have not been loaded with superstars, they have significantly more wins than any other team since 2018-19:


NBA Team With Most Wins Since 2019 | StatMuse


That’s due to Giannis. And the MVP is a regular season award.

 

[msgkings322]

I don’t buy either of those reasons. I think it is because the Bucks are forgotten. The Celtics have run away with the conference, so they haven’t been in consideration for the top seed and besides their championship run they have ‘disappointed’ in the playoffs.

Oh, and @buckalis

I added more of the discussion, thought it was interesting and detailed, with sidebars about Luka too

Sumner notes playoffs shouldn't matter for the MVP (even though we all know they kind of do...sometimes)

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I don't see how you add Lillard and then expect Giannis to get MVP buzz when the team has been pretty meh relative to expectations.

 

[msgkings322]

I don't see how you add Lillard and then expect Giannis to get MVP buzz when the team has been pretty meh relative to expectations.

Then why does Luka have so much buzz (with the better sidekick Kyrie and worse record)?

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Then why does Luka have so much buzz (with the better sidekick Kyrie and worse record)?

So now Luka has a better supporting cast than the Bucks?

 

[msgkings322]

So now Luka has a better supporting cast than the Bucks?

No, just responding to your comment about Lillard. Luka's team has a significantly worse record and like Jokic his game is all offense. He's even less of a defender than Jokic.

Just thought it was interesting, it's all Jokic vs Embiid vs Luka vs SGA and meanwhile Giannis is having maybe his best season ever

 

[Stakesarehigh]

No, just responding to your comment about Lillard. Luka's team has a significantly worse record and like Jokic his game is all offense. He's even less of a defender than Jokic.

Just thought it was interesting, it's all Jokic vs Embiid vs Luka vs SGA and meanwhile Giannis is having maybe his best season ever

2 games?

Lol

 

[tlance]

Ajit, Certainly Jokic and Giannis are the only two reasonable choices, and it’s close. But most straw polls I’ve seen don’t have Giannis even near the top.


I’d say that this year Giannis and Jokic are close in terms of offense. Even if Jokic were slightly ahead, Giannis as far, far better on defense. He can guard all 5 positions. People recall his 50 points in the championship game, but the Bucks likely don’t win that without his 5 blocks.


BTW, Giannis has already won two MVPs, and this year he’s playing much better than either of those years. He’s very likely now to become the first NBA player ever to average over 30 on more than 60% shooting. That’s really hard to do!


Also, Jokic tends to mostly play with Denver’s top players (their starting 5 is excellent.) Giannis plays lots of minutes with mediocre reserves. When he plays with starters, the Bucks have the league’s best net rating.


Lineups Advanced | Stats | NBA.com


I’m told there’s voter bias for two reasons. Voters don’t like his perceived role in getting the coach fired, and they find his style of play to be less aesthetically pleasing than other superstars.

I think Giannis has had an MVP worthy season statistically.

However, the Bucks have underachieved in the eyes of most which is why he isn’t getting the MVP love.

Also telling media that the Bucks are “Dame’s team” isn’t helping his case even though we all know otherwise.

 

[shopson67]

He takes too long at the FT line, automatic disqualification.

 

[thunderc]

Dangerous waters starting new threads, are you also a Nuggets fan?

 

[msgkings322]

Dangerous waters starting new threads, are you also a Nuggets fan?

Depends. What’s their record?

 

[thunderc]

Depends. What’s their record?

Well you could kind of claim to be a built not bought guy lol

 

[wildturkey]

The Bucks are underachieving and got a coach fired. No one is winning MVP in that situation regardless of stats

 

[Duffman]

The Bucks were the #1 seed last year, in the off-season they went out and added a 8 time NBA All-Star to play with Giannis and will end up worse than last season.

Them still being the 2 seed doesn’t mean anything.

 

[fightinfunbags]

The Bucks were the #1 seed last year, in the off-season they went out and added a 8 time NBA All-Star to play with Giannis and will end up worse than last season.

Them still being the 2 seed doesn’t mean anything.

And Giannis can’t VORP and RAPTOR like Jokic can. If you can’t win the spreadsheets you can’t be MVP.

 

[Duffman]

And Giannis can’t VORP and RAPTOR like Jokic can. If you can’t win the spreadsheets you can’t be MVP.