Inherited Runner Rating

[calsnowskier]

i have looked for, and have been unable to find, a good IR stat. The Giants bully this year has been HORRIBLE at stranding their inherited runners, and I wanted a better way of demonstrating this, so I started playing with some ideas.

I wanted to basically compare the situation the pitcher inherits vs the situation he leaves, but ONLY in regards to the runners that are not his. His own runners are basically accounted for in WHIP and ERA. The current stats (IR, IRS and IR%) are all just too rudimentary and does not really tell you anything. In these stats, a runner on 1st with 2 outs is statistically the exact same as a runner on 3rd with no outs.

So I this is where I am right now. I have assigned a point total to each situation. A man on 1st in 1 point, a man on 2nd is 2 points and a man on 3rd is 3 points. Then, multiply the total points by the number outs remaining in the inning. For example, a man on 1st with 2 outs is a 1-point situation. A man on 3rd with no outs is a 9-point situation. Bases loaded, 1 out is a 12-point situation. A players rating would be his "left points" divided by his "entered points". If a pitcher enters the game with a runner on 1st, no outs, then gives up a walk and is taken out, he has a rating of 6/3 for the game. His runner on 1st does not factor into this stat.

The "hole" in this rating is allowing runners to score. Based on the points I have assigned to each base at this point, a scored run would only be worth 4 points. Is that enough? And how would the outs multiplier work in that situation? It just doesn't feel right.

I know a bunch of you like creating your own stats. Any ideas on this one? My "requirements" are that I am looking for a rate-state instead of a counting stat, and I want to factor in more than just if the runner scored or not.

Ideas?

 

[calsnowskier]

Nothing?

 

[navamind]

There are inherited runner stats on BB-Ref, though I didn't really know about them until I saw your post.

Mariano Rivera Pitching Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

You can find it by going to a player's page and going to the "Finders & Advanced Stats" tab. From there, go to advanced stats.

 

[navamind]

Here's how the Giants compare to the rest of the NL:

2017 National League Relief Pitching | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Good post

I always thought it was the best measurement of a relief pitcher, especially non closers

"So and So's ERA is 0.69"

never mind that So and So empties the bases he inherited every time he pitches

 

[calsnowskier]

There are inherited runner stats on BB-Ref, though I didn't really know about them until I saw your post.

Mariano Rivera Pitching Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

You can find it by going to a player's page and going to the "Finders & Advanced Stats" tab. From there, go to advanced stats.

All they have is IR, IRS and IR%. I am looking for something deeper since the established stats treat a runner on 3rd with no outs the exact same as a runner on 1st with 2 outs.

 

[calsnowskier]

Good post

I always thought it was the best measurement of a relief pitcher, especially non closers

"So and So's ERA is 0.69"

never mind that So and So empties the bases he inherited every time he pitches

So any ideas on my post? I am not a huge fan of the point system I spelled out, but at least it quantifies the situation upon entering and leaving.

 

[navamind]

I wanted to basically compare the situation the pitcher inherits vs the situation he leaves, but ONLY in regards to the runners that are not his. His own runners are basically accounted for in WHIP and ERA. The current stats (IR, IRS and IR%) are all just too rudimentary and does not really tell you anything. In these stats, a runner on 1st with 2 outs is statistically the exact same as a runner on 3rd with no outs.

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Relievers » Win Probability Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

LI | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

Leverage Index (LI)

Hopefully these help.