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ESPN Insider - How Vegas ranks top 25 CFB teams
Week 10 of the college football season is here, which brings the 10th edition of my weekly Vegas college football power rankings. I have nine sets of power ratings, and I will supply the one set that is closest to what Las Vegas uses. For comparison's sake, I also provide the ratings from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, ESPN's FPI ratings and my average game grades from philsteele.com. These game grades take into account this year's stats (passing and rushing yards, offensive and defensive points and the strength of opponent played).
Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's top 25:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (rating 144.5)
Alabama is a clear No. 1 in all four sets of power ratings and is coming off a bye, so there is no change. The Tide still have a three-point margin on Ohio State.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (rating 141.3)
The Buckeyes needed a late comeback to beat Penn State at home and were favored by 6.5 points. Normally that would result in a drop in the ratings, but they held Penn State to a season low in yards and gained more yards than any other Penn State foe this season. They also remain No. 2 at Westgate and FPI.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (rating 141.2)
Penn State led Ohio State in Columbus in the fourth quarter and lost by only one point but were outgained 529-283 with season worsts on offense and defense. They remain No. 3 in my ratings and No. 3 at FPI and Westgate.
4. Clemson Tigers (rating 138.3)
All of the power ratings had the Tigers at No. 4 last week, and they led 24-3 before giving up a "meaningless" touchdown at the end to "only" win by 14. Clemson was expected to win by two scores, keeping its power rating the same. The Tigers moved down to No. 6 in FPI, however.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (rating 138.0)
Georgia was favored by 14 last week but beat down Florida 42-7, so the Bulldogs climb in the ratings and jump past Oklahoma. They are No. 5 in FPI and No. 6 in my average game grades, while Westgate has them at No. 7.
6. Oklahoma Sooners (rating 135.6)
For the second straight week, Oklahoma won by the margin forecasted by the ratings, so it remained at 135.6. The Sooners are No. 5 at Westgate, and my average game grade ratings have them at No. 7. FPI has them at No. 8.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (rating 134.5)
Oklahoma State was favored by 7.5 on the road over West Virginia and led 50-31 late in the contest. A Mountaineers touchdown cut the margin to 11, so the rating didn't move up all that much, but it was enough to move the Cowboys up to No. 7. Westgate has them at No. 6, my average game grades have them at No. 4 and FPI has them at No. 10.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (rating 134.4)
The Irish were favored by 7 last week, but my Vegas power ratings actually had them favored by 10.9. They got an impressive 35-14 win over NC State and moved past a slipping Wisconsin. Westgate has them at No. 9, my game grades have them at No. 5 and FPI has them at No. 4.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (rating 133.8)
Wisconsin had a 134.2 rating last week and beat Illinois 24-10, but the Badgers drop because they were favored by 28. They are No. 8 at Westgate, No. 7 in FPI and only No. 15 in my average game grades.
10. Auburn Tigers (rating 133.7)
The Tigers were No. 8 at Westgate last week, but even coming off a bye they were passed up and are now No. 11 there. FPI and my average game grades have them at No. 9.
11. Washington Huskies (rating 132.6)
The Huskies were favored by 17.5 last week and won by 21, so they move up a couple of decimal points. Washington is No. 10 at Westgate and No. 7 at FPI.
12. TCU Horned Frogs (rating 132.2)
The Frogs lost at Iowa State last week and drop out of the top 10 -- but they did not drop far. They are also No. 12 at Westgate and rank No. 10 in FPI and No. 12 in my game grades.
13. Virginia Tech Hokies (rating 130.3)
Virginia Tech was supposed to win by 17.5 and won by 21, so it moves up slightly in the ratings. The Hokies are No. 13 at Westgate and No. 13 in FPI.
14. USC Trojans (rating 130.2)
Westgate had it right, as it had the Trojans at No. 18 last week, and my Vegas ratings only had them at No. 23. USC was a 3-point favorite and won in the desert at Arizona State by a final score of 48-17. Westgate has the Trojans at No. 15, and FPI and my game grades have them 17th.
15. Michigan Wolverines (rating 127.4)
Michigan was expected to win by 23 last week and won by 21, with a missed field goal. It moves up a couple of decimal points with the emergence of Brandon Peters at quarterback. Westgate has the Wolverines at No. 14, and FPI has them only at No. 24.
Week 10 of the college football season is here, which brings the 10th edition of my weekly Vegas college football power rankings. I have nine sets of power ratings, and I will supply the one set that is closest to what Las Vegas uses. For comparison's sake, I also provide the ratings from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, ESPN's FPI ratings and my average game grades from philsteele.com. These game grades take into account this year's stats (passing and rushing yards, offensive and defensive points and the strength of opponent played).
Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's top 25:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (rating 144.5)
Alabama is a clear No. 1 in all four sets of power ratings and is coming off a bye, so there is no change. The Tide still have a three-point margin on Ohio State.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (rating 141.3)
The Buckeyes needed a late comeback to beat Penn State at home and were favored by 6.5 points. Normally that would result in a drop in the ratings, but they held Penn State to a season low in yards and gained more yards than any other Penn State foe this season. They also remain No. 2 at Westgate and FPI.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (rating 141.2)
Penn State led Ohio State in Columbus in the fourth quarter and lost by only one point but were outgained 529-283 with season worsts on offense and defense. They remain No. 3 in my ratings and No. 3 at FPI and Westgate.
4. Clemson Tigers (rating 138.3)
All of the power ratings had the Tigers at No. 4 last week, and they led 24-3 before giving up a "meaningless" touchdown at the end to "only" win by 14. Clemson was expected to win by two scores, keeping its power rating the same. The Tigers moved down to No. 6 in FPI, however.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (rating 138.0)
Georgia was favored by 14 last week but beat down Florida 42-7, so the Bulldogs climb in the ratings and jump past Oklahoma. They are No. 5 in FPI and No. 6 in my average game grades, while Westgate has them at No. 7.
6. Oklahoma Sooners (rating 135.6)
For the second straight week, Oklahoma won by the margin forecasted by the ratings, so it remained at 135.6. The Sooners are No. 5 at Westgate, and my average game grade ratings have them at No. 7. FPI has them at No. 8.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (rating 134.5)
Oklahoma State was favored by 7.5 on the road over West Virginia and led 50-31 late in the contest. A Mountaineers touchdown cut the margin to 11, so the rating didn't move up all that much, but it was enough to move the Cowboys up to No. 7. Westgate has them at No. 6, my average game grades have them at No. 4 and FPI has them at No. 10.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (rating 134.4)
The Irish were favored by 7 last week, but my Vegas power ratings actually had them favored by 10.9. They got an impressive 35-14 win over NC State and moved past a slipping Wisconsin. Westgate has them at No. 9, my game grades have them at No. 5 and FPI has them at No. 4.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (rating 133.8)
Wisconsin had a 134.2 rating last week and beat Illinois 24-10, but the Badgers drop because they were favored by 28. They are No. 8 at Westgate, No. 7 in FPI and only No. 15 in my average game grades.
10. Auburn Tigers (rating 133.7)
The Tigers were No. 8 at Westgate last week, but even coming off a bye they were passed up and are now No. 11 there. FPI and my average game grades have them at No. 9.
11. Washington Huskies (rating 132.6)
The Huskies were favored by 17.5 last week and won by 21, so they move up a couple of decimal points. Washington is No. 10 at Westgate and No. 7 at FPI.
12. TCU Horned Frogs (rating 132.2)
The Frogs lost at Iowa State last week and drop out of the top 10 -- but they did not drop far. They are also No. 12 at Westgate and rank No. 10 in FPI and No. 12 in my game grades.
13. Virginia Tech Hokies (rating 130.3)
Virginia Tech was supposed to win by 17.5 and won by 21, so it moves up slightly in the ratings. The Hokies are No. 13 at Westgate and No. 13 in FPI.
14. USC Trojans (rating 130.2)
Westgate had it right, as it had the Trojans at No. 18 last week, and my Vegas ratings only had them at No. 23. USC was a 3-point favorite and won in the desert at Arizona State by a final score of 48-17. Westgate has the Trojans at No. 15, and FPI and my game grades have them 17th.
15. Michigan Wolverines (rating 127.4)
Michigan was expected to win by 23 last week and won by 21, with a missed field goal. It moves up a couple of decimal points with the emergence of Brandon Peters at quarterback. Westgate has the Wolverines at No. 14, and FPI has them only at No. 24.
