Following the bouncing ball

[JohnU]

Padres deal setup man Benoit to the Mariners.
Benoit was expected to be their closer after they lose Kimbrell.
Do they go after Chapman?

 

[chico ruiz]

it strikes me that most of the recent posts on this board underscore, with a red magic marker, why it is so vital for a smaller market organization to emphasize, and continually develop, it's farm system. i like to reference excerpts from the following article (below) because it highlights how a contemporary mlb club should operate. i think i'm in the 'ballpark' on this. i'm not suggesting the reds copy this approach, because it's based in relationships, and club hierarchies vary across the league. i am suggesting that the reds should have something similar in place. a work in progress that was implemented a decade ago based on incremental changes at the turn of the century. it wasn't just sky rocketing salaries. there were obvious trends beginning that even some keen and diligently observant fans were recognizing. some of it came about with less steroids use. some of it was analytics driven. some of it was medical science driven. some of it was gm's & manager's willingness, informed by these trends, to take chances and experiment as the mlb pendulum began to swing (slowly, but surely) backwards in terms of what was happening on the field. the proof of the red's dysfunctionality is zero mlb ready position players in the reds organization. i think we could all understand, if it were just a year or two. but, this has been a long drought.

they provide data to each big league coach before every series in addition to doing larger research and development projects for the draft, player development and prospective acquisitions. Interestingly enough, analytics exec x says they don't work independently from scouts and coaches. instead, they use an integrative process that includes scouting reports, performance data from pitch f/x technology, medical reports and more. analytics exec x says they have developed some unique models that are proprietary. "some of the best ideas we've had [for data gathering and analysis], have come out of conversations with our scouts who have been doing this for 50 years and will probably forget more things about baseball than I'll ever know, or with our coaching staff - talking through situations, saying, ‘hey, this is what we're seeing as we're doing this kind of modeling on the data, does this make sense to you? does this look right? what are we not thinking about?' and that's really where a lot of our great ideas come from - in the interplay between the things the coaches know that we don't, and the types of things we can do from our backgrounds that can help them process the data better," analytics exec x says he talks to the director of professional scouting, three to four times a day throughout the season, in addition to speaking with the director of scouting, heading into the draft. "one thing that we say to ourselves as our department is, ‘nothing should be a black box, right?'" analytics exec x continued. "it shouldn't be, ‘hey, we have this information and then we put it through this machine that you should know nothing about, and then out pops the answer.' that's not the way it works. we should be able to explain every step of the way, ‘this is what we're doing. this is the kind of information we're using. and here, logically, in just regular baseball terms, is why we think this makes sense.' "at the end of the day, the onus is on us to try to explain to anybody that we're presenting to, in regular baseball terms, what we're doing and why we think it's added value and that's our aim. it's a fun process."

i don't see any of this with the reds, and again, it's about relationships; from ownership, to front office, and ultimately to the field staff. all unified, all working off the same agenda, with the crucial ability to debate an issue and be on different sides, but when they come out of the room they're unified. there must be a tangible working connection between the executive division, the field staff, and everything in-between. it's been difficult to see that with the reds since jocketty came on board. from the outside looking in, it appeared -and, i assume, continues to be- a much more authoritarian system. i have no idea what dick williams has actually been doing the last 8 years and how it will change the decision making process for the reds. will he be afforded means to work independently, and does he have the chops to transition the reds to a modern smallish market mlb organization? can he hire and then delegate various responsibilities to developmental staffers referenced in the above article?

here's an excerpt (below) from a espn article written this year. it is a unbiased report, with no axes to grind. it's a summary of all 30 mlb franchise's use and application of analytics. it has become an inextricable element of mlb that administrators ignore or insufficiently use at their peril, and ultimately the what trots onto the field.

the reds have made a relatively small investment in analytics. their operation is run by sam grossman, a former math major at northwestern with a background in actuarial work who was recently promoted to senior director of analytics. grossman oversees development of the reds' baseball information system, builds databases for use in the amateur draft and generally infuses the reds' front office with analytically minded concepts -- that is, thinking about players in terms of runs, wins and dollars. grossman's promotion and the hiring of a new developer are a start, but overall the reds remain a front office with a traditional composition. that's because of walt jocketty. after losing a power struggle in st. louis with jeff luhnow, now the mastermind of the houston astros' massive foray into analytics, jocketty brought his more old-school approach to cincinnati, becoming gm in 2008. while jocketty, whose background is in scouting and player development, is not entirely antagonistic towards analytics, his vision for the constitution of a baseball front office is fundamentally different from luhnow's.

it is almost 2016, and the reds have nothing that remotely resembles this type of essential modern mlb strategy. the above quotes also, in a nutshell, explain why it's not luck with respect to acquiring and developing prospects. it's relentless searching, coupled with hard work. not only that, but these guys have fun doing it. it's a recipe for success. they (the entire scouting, analytic, and development staff) get to see the fruits of their labor with the fielding of a consistently competitive team. there is no doubt that teams have been targeting contact, speed, and defense. of particular interest to me is, they were not dissuaded by the tired, old, worn-out, damn near pre-historic requisite that corner outfielders need to be 30 / 90 types. i'll leave how pitching relates to this for another post.

 

[JohnU]

There are a couple of ways to look at this from a front office standpoint. The more complex one is the scenario you pose, Chico. It's not as sexy and requires a complex connection of dots that the average fan (being me) isn't inclined to want to pursue beyond the academic discussion. We all know how the process ought to work in modern baseball. We aren't always sure exactly how to get from Point A to Point B without going through the alphabet.

The less complex one is the one that's easy to sell and one the Reds FO has sold for a number of years. That being, these guys will have a bounce-back year, the Reds will contend, make the playoffs and win the gosh-darned World Series and we will all drink Burger on Fountain Square.

It was easy to believe Bruce was going to hit his stride and it was easy to believe Hamilton would become the Speed Racer we all wanted. Or that Mesoraco could go 30/110 ... and that Votto really did have MVP numbers. Had all that worked, we'd have held Cueto and ... the story is HEA.

The FO is still going to sell that second scenario because it's all they have. It's all that can possibly work. The Ryan LaMarres and Ivan DeJesusueseseseesssss will just be plugged in for another year of the same thing.

Bruce might have that bounceback and Hamilton might learn to bunt. We get Homer back, right? Mesoraco is healthy, right? Sean Marshall ... dang gonna miss that guy because it means one less excuse.

It could happen.

Right?

I mean ... possibly.

Kinda.

Cross our fingers.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I noted several years ago, that baseball might re-prioritize speed if PED's were really on the decline. I'm pessimistic they will ever disappear, only be better hidden. I do believe the downstream impact of PED's has already helped (with free agency) forever change the game economically. All things evolve, and if you live long enough, usually come back around again. Much like wars, there is tragedy in using outdated tactics against newer technology. Many managers of the PED era have still been professing swinging hard, but are more frequently forced to recognize a run is a run, no matter how it's made.

I think the Reds promotion of Dick Williams is part of their evolution, but I have to wonder how much of that movie we've already seen. His family have been long time Reds ownership group members. I don't know enough about him to speak to his merits for the job, but i do recognize change although inevidible, is only ever wished for by the disappointed. The bottom line is, this team does have a more limited payroll than many, and isn't neccessarily relying on a strength by having to develop annual championship caliber farm talent. They've been only recently successful finding pitching, but haven't found many hitters that play the OF, the second most common commodity among positions.

I too, believe the farm is the life blood of a baseball organization, but an cautioned by the realization that all farms have good and bad yields. The Reds have been doing something wrong with their outfielders, for a long time. Maybe they've just been teaching or reaching in the PED strategy, or maybe- they got left behind for avoiding roiding ? Dunno, but the average Joe can see Hamilton needs to hit fewer flyballs. Bunting more would help, but he has to re-tool his swing to hit more line drives to be a real factor...in sure they are working on that-to what result, time will tell. To be honest, I hope for .240's. he's never going to walk much- too fast and too many K's behind him normally.

Frazier and Cozart age-wise, got to MLB too late to look at being values for the next 3-4 years. Fraziers position make his shelf life longer than middle infielders, who usually only last about as long as NFL running backs. Phillips is way over that trend, but time isnt on his side. Mesoraco needs another position to get more AB's, but with the Reds typical procrastination, he too may be too expensive to platoon in a few years.

The young pitching staff will take some lumps next year, especially after Chapman is gone, but it's the offense that lost most games last year. Jay Bruce does just enough, just a little too late, to keep people hoping. He's being paid pretty well to be a factor only about 6 hot weeks a year,IMO....and because the Reds haven't produced many hitting OF in the last 3 decades, everyone seems to settle for Bruce..in hoping that if LF has to again be a compromise, it's with displaced position players like Suarez, Mesoraco, or a minor league slugging 1b....and if there is a good thing about being budget strapped, the Reds may be forced to forego their recent penchant for signing their next $9M past prime LF.


The Reds have a lot of work to do. I'm not so sure they really know what to work on, much less how to do it. They've been largely a team waiting...and continue to be. The farm...I'm reminded the Astros traded for much of their latest crop of youngsters, and suffered the cellar for decades...for a short lived ( if they cant continue to bring up talent) contender. Ditto KC and the Mets-although the Mets have squandered more money than most.

I'm not optimistic about next season, but I did renew my tickets. Not sure the wisdom in that. I may wear a mask or grocery bag over my head some. I don't believe in the Marlins way- where fans botch but don't pay- or the long time Cubs way- where fans shown up for a century knowing they are going to lose...I'm looking for a compromise that says Im a paying customer, that isn't very happy.

 

[JohnU]

First off, the Reds needed to trade Chapman at the deadline to a contender. That team would have gotten AC for the playoff run. Whoever didn't make that move on the Reds end needed to be fired. It cost the Reds a lot of value. It wasn't like keeping AC was going to make the 98 losses go away. Partly, there are reasons why trades work or don't work and a lot of it is evaluating opportunity and market value. Chapman is worth a lot LESS now to a team that will get him for one year as opposed to a playoff run and a full year.

Cincy can deal from a position of strength in terms of pitching depth, but the quality of that depth compares to other similar franchises in what way? Depends ... but most teams that are emerging have identified the pitching they need and are looking for Mike Leake-type guys who the Reds currently don't have.

Apparently the thinking is that Mesoraco will catch again, but we gotta wonder if he can do it 120 games a year. I'd say ... not ... but we still have 159 contenders to play left field.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Chapman has been mishandled in several ways. It's often overlooked because he's a great closer, but the decision keeping him out of the rotation altered so many other moves. Jocketty's a tweaker- a short term move and win now guy...that had Mr. Laid Back managing his timeline that expired about when the starting rotations contracts expired.

Votto and Bruce and Bailey and Latos and Mesoraco- Excused as unforeseen bad breaks, but some of those should have been avoided by better planning that didnt involve embarrasing miscues with a dozen other players. It's time for a change, but it's always painfully slow coming - a quarter century is about the duration for small market teams to revive these days. It's been that long since the '90 Reds, so in thinking we missed the last Series boat, and are left to swim until another comes along. I might not live that long.

I often wonder about players like Votto-as trapped by that $250M lifer contract as the Reds...would he have given up $100M of that if it meant the Reds could have added another player or two that would have resulted in a Reds WS appearance ? He'll, he could have deferred half that to get paid until he's 80...IMO, It's just too much money- unless your paying for a cancer cure or rebuilding the ozone yourself.

Personally, I just want to see a team I'm not ashamed to root for- they don't have to win the pennant every year, but the cellar makes a statement I don't have affinity for. At best, it means we effed up and are trying to recover...but they never reduce the price, do they ? Not that I want to pay less for a bad team as a long term, but there should be some reprocussions for the Reds decision makers that effed up....and I want to see the few high dollar Reds playing every day, with the same ENTHUSIASM they had before they got the big contract...smiling, being humble, not whining about the team not adding winning players they helped to not afford. I'd like to see the rookies and pitchers and Billy Hamilton be able to get a bunt down USUALLY, instead of occasionally.

Is that too much to ask for ?

 

[Redsfan1507]

A few points to Chico's (great) post:

I am an old school guy-from an on field fundamentals perspective- meaning I believe the foundation formula for manufacturing and preventing runs is a rote learning prerequisite that should be confirmed or taught before other (individual player) preferences are considered. this is contrary to the more "sensitive" modern prima-donna player...Who in the Reds organization, are largely left to methods that often prioritize praise for random success. It produces too many low contact, .260 minor league hitters who hit less in MLB. M

On the other hand, to ignore technology is a fatal mistake. The on field results are indisputable in regard to defensive shifts, hitter and pitchers tendencies, etc. "Advance scouts" used to just chart pitches and keep a scorebook. That still applies, but it has to be turned into computer data, with software that can aid more than just a software developer or statistician- it has to be able to be interpreted into analytics AND translated into the guys making the moves on the field. Managers that ignore that info should be fired. The Nats can hire them.

As a hitter, knowing a curveball is coming is only an advantage if you can hit it....so I want both- to know it's coming and how to hit it. Not many Computer experts can teach weight shift and staying inside the ball.

So, I absolutely agree a large team, with diverse skills working to a common plan is essential. The software developers need input from baseball purists and vice versa, so the data is both valuable for strategy, and effective to results on the field.

The bottom line is, scouting ametuers is always going to be a crapshoot because there just isnt any kind of a level baseline among them. Developing them is just as hard. Just as the Reds are behind in metrics analysis, they are embarrassingly poor at preparing players for logical MLB roles.

The real root cause of any problem is almost always management. Top down, the best hire the brightest, and get them to work together to a common goal. The failures simply don't know what others dont know, and are always compromised. Billy Beane has an advantage there- he knows both sides of baseball. If he had a payroll, look out.

 

[JohnU]

And let's be honest about it. This team is depending on a half-dozen pitchers all going from 0 to 65 in the matter of one calendar winter. Remember, it took Homer Bailey 3 or 4 years before he developed a brain, one that allows him to be a just-over-.500 pitcher who has 2 no-hitters.

We can't be sure that Lamb, Moscot, Lorenzen, Iglesias, Finnegan, Holmberg, Howie, Cizbuck, Albonzo, Louie, Huey, Dewey and Wutzsface will be able to get the side out in a league that strangely tries to get better each year for reasons that totally escape me.

The F.O. is also depending on the return to the projected talents of Cozart and Mesoraco, neither of whom are automatically going to get better.

They are also selling the ticket that Hamilton will indeed -- this year -- learn to bunt the ball so that he can join the 110-plus stolen base club.

They figure Votto will still be a top-3 guy in the MVP race because, after all, he was THIS YEAR, right?

And Bruce will snap out of it. I mean, he's due, right?

Frazier will win the HR derby again, which is always good when a team is trying to end a 12-game losing streak.

Given the fact that people actually listen to Donald Trump tell lies, it's no wonder an entire fan base can be deceived.

I vote for the under-65 for wins this year in Cincy.

Price might have a better excuse this time since he got rid of the dumbass who coached third base.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds are pretty idle for a team that is listening to offers on the entire roster. The "Winter Meetings" are next week and most off seasons are slow leading into them, but it really wouldn't surprise me if the Reds don't make any significant deals. IMO, They seem to be expecting a big return for players that are short on team control years and or trending in the wrong direction. The Winter Meetings may not yield the return they are seeking, but injuries leading into Opening Day often make contenders pull the trigger on deals they otherwise wouldn't.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see Brayan Pena floated on down the Ohio River and made a right turn at the Mississippi River and has docked in St. Louis for 2 yrs/$5M.

 

[JohnU]

Reds should have traded Pena at the deadline.
Backup catchers are gold for contenders. They'd have at least gotten a spare left fielder, and lord knows, we could always use a spare left fielder.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'd like to think if the Reds had a worthwhile trade offer for Pena in July they'd traded him. I was surprised he wasn't traded.

With the Cards signing him for 2 yrs/$5M, you'd think they might have showed some interest with the lack of production Tony Cruz provided the last few seasons when Molina was down. With the Reds finishing 36 games behind the Cards I don't think the "trading within your own division" taboo applies.

WLW had new GM Dick Williams on as a guest on the "Hot Stove" show. He mention the Reds' analytical team was looking for options to fill LF. Hope it's not the same team that came up with Jason Marquis and Kevin Gregg last year.

 

[JohnU]

Looking for OPTIONS in left field?
They have had 9 years to find a fucking left fielder, a guy who should first be able to hit.
They keep shoving this "if we fix left field, we'll be OK" bullshit at the fans who can clearly look at the fact that the Reds currently have Tucker Barnhart behind the plate and Devin Mesoraco on the "where does he fit?" list.

The bullpen will soon have Lorenzen and a couple of other guys not named Chapman.
But I am sure we will get 2 more lefthanded pitching prospects from the Angels or somebody.

 

[JohnU]

Chapman to the Royals for ... Alex Gordon?