Fantasy projections

[JohnU]

Seems bizarre that they could actually say a player is going to get 399 at-bats, instead of rounding it off to an even 400 ... but fantasy geeks pride themselves on proving they can get real numbers. So much for that.

This is still sort of interesting. I think they are a little high on a couple of guys,


REDS RAZZBALL RATINGS

 

[Redsfan1507]

Fantasy projections are usually a combo of stat averages and wild ass guesses.

I doubt Mesoraco gets 399 AB as a catcher only. That would mean about 110 games on a repaired hip. Votto's less than 500 AB is logical if he walks 175 times, also likely in this lineup. If Hamilton can hit .250, it would be a minor miracle.

If Suarez barely gets 400 AB at 3b, this team is in worse trouble even than I expect. If Peraza gets 200 AB, I'd expect more than 12 SB. Desclafani is the only pitcher I expect to last 200 innings, but I'd bet on a 4.00 plus ERA.

I may be wrong, but I think the Reds are stuck with BP's contract, and if Cozart keeps his job, Peraza is the best youngster with the least opportunity for PT in current Reds camp. He may be the leadoff hitter we wished Billy was. Jay Bruce, IMO can and will probably be moved, even though there is no real replacement to hit 30 HR regardless of equally poor BA, but it would dump another substantial salary.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Also...I'd bet Votto hits over .300. I think that's a lock.

 

[JohnU]

Obviously they can't factor in injuries or even players who are playing hurt, which BP tends to do quite a lot.
I never put much stock in catchers' BA, though they can sometimes get into a groove. Mesoraco's problem is that he isn't supplemental offense in this lineup; he's a key part of it. That's too much pressure on a guy whose job is something else.

My other thoughts will be on the spring training thread, so as to not spread it out too much.