Expectations this year?

[iknowftbll]

Chiefs fans,

What are your thoughts on the Chiefs chances this year? I realize there is a lot to still happen before the season, but this is "Optimism Season" right now. The Chiefs had the best defense in the AFC West last year, but their offense was pedestrian at best. Maclin is a solid upgrade over Bowe, and the team could address the WR position in the draft. Ultimately I think the biggest hindrance to the offense is Andy Reid, though. He has one of the best RBs in the league at his disposal, at ran him just 10 times in games last year. If that doesn't change, I don't see the Chiefs being much more than a bubble team, with an early playoff exit again if they do get in.

But that's my take. I'm here to get yours. Reading the comments on Arrowhead Addict, a lot of Chiefs fans are expecting an 11-5 season. I definitely think that's within reach for this team, but I still don't see them equal to or better than the Broncos.

Your thoughts?

 

[Black Adam]

Chiefs fans,

What are your thoughts on the Chiefs chances this year? I realize there is a lot to still happen before the season, but this is "Optimism Season" right now. The Chiefs had the best defense in the AFC West last year, but their offense was pedestrian at best. Maclin is a solid upgrade over Bowe, and the team could address the WR position in the draft. Ultimately I think the biggest hindrance to the offense is Andy Reid, though. He has one of the best RBs in the league at his disposal, at ran him just 10 times in games last year. If that doesn't change, I don't see the Chiefs being much more than a bubble team, with an early playoff exit again if they do get in.

But that's my take. I'm here to get yours. Reading the comments on Arrowhead Addict, a lot of Chiefs fans are expecting an 11-5 season. I definitely think that's within reach for this team, but I still don't see them equal to or better than the Broncos.

Your thoughts?

short answer/thought. depends on what Andy reid's gonna do with the draft/FA. o-line was a definite need as is receiver. imo the talent was there for the most part with the notable exception of those 2 positions mostly. i won't predict 11-5, but they WERE good enough to thump both the teams that went to the Super bowl last season. so i guess i DO expect the Chiefs to be better than they were last season...

 

[Black Adam]

Agree Charles definitely needs more touches though...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I would probably say the expectations are a playoff berth- so 10-6/11-5 doesn't seem crazy. Certainly skepticism they'll win the division just for the obvious fact the Broncos, and Peyton Manning, are in the division. It doesn't seem outlandish to predict a WC berth given results from last year despite some really obvious deficiencies from the OL, WR's, and ILB's. The schedule now isn't so much a dealbreaker that many people thought last year. I'll probably make a less ethereal prediction after the draft when I have a better idea of who's playing where.

Going to be a very interesting year. I usually like to give three years for a FO to turn around a team. So, I am willing to continue the wait and see approach. Very excited with the results so far, however; figured it'd take much longer to dig out of the of the hole they dug for themselves in the Pioli era.

As of right now, I'd say the expectation in year 3 for this team probably goes a lot like this

• Challenge for the division
• Make the playoffs
• At least 2nd in the division

As of right now, I don't see any reason to not rubber stamp the standings from last year in division. Not going to make my own prediction until after the draft, but I definitely believe the expectation is playoffs this year.

1. Denver
2. KC
3. SD
4. Oak

 

[MHSL82]

2013: I thought they could contend to make the playoffs, wasn't sure.
2014: Contend to win a WC round depending on who they faced.
2015: Contend for the AFC West, but still an underdog.
2016: Contend for AFC West, toss-up, maybe even favorites.
Eventually: Contend for AFCC, Super Bowl. I do see this team getting better and sustaining success with Dorsey and Reid.

 

[iknowftbll]

Eventually: Contend for AFCC, Super Bowl. I do see this team getting better and sustaining success with Dorsey and Reid.

I honestly think Andy Reid will prove to be to the Chiefs what John Fox was to the Broncos. Which is not a bad thing, mind you. Fox was the right guy at the time Elway hired him. You can't argue with his regular season success, from Tebow to a 38-10 run with Manning. But two huge playoff letdowns and a near-unforgivable no-show in the Super Bowl doomed him.

Reid has elevated the Chiefs, there is no question about it. But I think what we'll see with him is a coach that can take a bad team, fix it to the point it is respectable again, but can't get it over the hump.

We'll see.

 

[Black Adam]

I honestly think Andy Reid will prove to be to the Chiefs what John Fox was to the Broncos. Which is not a bad thing, mind you. Fox was the right guy at the time Elway hired him. You can't argue with his regular season success, from Tebow to a 38-10 run with Manning. But two huge playoff letdowns and a near-unforgivable no-show in the Super Bowl doomed him.

Reid has elevated the Chiefs, there is no question about it. But I think what we'll see with him is a coach that can take a bad team, fix it to the point it is respectable again, but can't get it over the hump.

We'll see.

remains to be seen, but there was a reason the fans in Philly hated him so i definitely hear what you're saying...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

remains to be seen, but there was a reason the fans in Philly hated him so i definitely hear what you're saying...

My hope is that he won't be another John Fox so long as he is kept far away from the GM powers he had for much of his tenure in Philly. I felt that was his downfall in Philly. Even still- he has a nice looking resume minus rings.

 

[Black Adam]

My hope is that he won't be another John Fox so long as he is kept far away from the GM powers he had for much of his tenure in Philly. I felt that was his downfall in Philly. Even still- he has a nice looking resume minus rings.

true enough. the Philly fans used to always whine about how much he'd outsmart himself. my hope is he's lived and learned from it...

 

[iknowftbll]

remains to be seen, but there was a reason the fans in Philly hated him so i definitely hear what you're saying...

He was definitely the right hire for Kansas City going into the 2013 season. To take a team that went 2-14 in 2012 to 11-5 and 9-7 seasons is pretty impressive. I don't think the Chiefs are good enough to knock the Broncos off the top in the AFC West but they are definitely a playoff contender. I think the Chargers will be a handful for them and can see either team going 10-6 and making the playoffs with the other 9-7 again and out of the playoffs.

 

[Black Adam]

He was definitely the right hire for Kansas City going into the 2013 season. To take a team that went 2-14 in 2012 to 11-5 and 9-7 seasons is pretty impressive. I don't think the Chiefs are good enough to knock the Broncos off the top in the AFC West but they are definitely a playoff contender. I think the Chargers will be a handful for them and can see either team going 10-6 and making the playoffs with the other 9-7 again and out of the playoffs.

looking at how things are right now i agree it'll be close. course with a couple of games last season they SHOULD have won(thinking Tennessee/Arizona/San Francisco) they could have repeated that 11-5 season imo, but that's why the games are played...

in any case it should be an interesting season...

 

[MHSL82]

Kansas City Chiefs: Three takeaways to remember heading into training camp | isportsweb

Offseason practices show Chiefs passing game ready to reach new heights | The Kansas City Star The Kansas City Star

 

[MHSL82]

Can the Chiefs Get More from Passing Game?

The Kansas City Chiefs want to get more from the passing game in 2015. That much is obvious after signing free-agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin in the first round and selecting athletic receiver Chris Conley in the third round. Along with tight end Travis Kelce and slot receiver De’Anthony Thomas, quarterback Alex Smith now has weapons as he has never had before.

Based on the receiving talent alone, there should be little doubt that the Chiefs will get much more from their passing game.

Over the last six years, Smith has averaged a 62.4 percent completion percentage in 75 starts. What Smith doesn’t get enough credit for is his remarkable consistency.

According to Pro Football Focus, Smith attempted just 5.2 percent of his passes over 20 yards. Over the last couple of years, it’s been around eight or nine percent.

At times, he’s been up around 10 percent of his passes thrown over 20 yards. With the talent he has now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that again. At worst, we’ll likely see a return to around eight percent.

Projecting Weapons

Since Smith has been so consistent over such a long period, it’s actually easy to see how and where the offense can grow around him. For starters, Smith loves throwing to tight ends and running backs.

Smith targeted San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis more than any other receiver when he was there. Davis has hauled in an astounding 24.6 percent on the touchdowns Smith has thrown, 14.1 percent of his passing yards and 12 percent of his completions. Those numbers have obviously been on the decline since he arrived in Kansas City two years ago as well.

Kelce is already in the top 10 of Smith’s favorite targets in most categories. Smith also loved throwing to tight end Delanie Walker in San Francisco. Tight ends appeal to Smith’s nature as a quarterback, which is conservative to a fault.

Running backs Frank Gore and Jamaal Charles are third and fifth on Smith’s list of targets and completions. Charles has caught 12 touchdowns from Smith, one more than Michael Crabtree has and second most of any player.

Remarkably, Smith has completed about 67 percent of his passes to Gore and Charles. He’s similarly consistent throwing to his No. 1 receivers, with a 61.7 percent completion rate to Crabtree and 59.1 percent to Dwayne Bowe.

Both Bowe and Crabtree have averaged around 12 yards per reception from Smith. Maclin averaged 15.5 per reception last year and 13.9 in his career. His low was 12.4 yards per reception in 2012 for the Eagles, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s final season at Philadelphia as head coach.

The notable difference was his production after the catch in 2014. Last year, Maclin averaged 6.0 yards per reception after the catch, but so did his rookie teammate Jordan Matthews. In 2013, DeSean Jackson averaged 6.0 yards per reception in the same offense.

In Reid’s offense, Maclin’s averages were 4.2, 4.4, 3.9 and 4.5 yards after the catch. If we split the difference, assuming part of the difference was Maclin being the No. 2 receiver in Reid’s offense and the other due to offensive differences, a decent projection for Maclin would be around 5.2 yards after the catch for the Chiefs in 2015.

Based on his average of about 70 receptions per 16 games under Reid at roughly 14-15 yards per reception, Maclin has a very real shot at becoming Smith’s first 1,000-yard wide receiver if he stays healthy. Don't expect Maclin to better the 1,318 yards he had last season with Kelce and Charles there to gobble up any added opportunities.

You have to love the fit of Maclin in the offense considering his familiarity with Reid and his style of play considering Smith’s tendencies. It’s roughly 200-300 more passing yards on marginally more receptions than Bowe has been putting up over the last two years. That’s a notable uptick in production.

You may not have to temper any expectations for Kelce, who had an incredible 2014 season. He averaged 7.5 yards per reception after the catch and caught a ridiculous 82.7 percent of his targets, both tops in the league. This production is a feature of Reid’s offense that hasn’t been talked about enough.

Brent Celek averaged 8.0 yards after the catch per reception and 13.1 yards per catch in 2011 under Reid. Creating operating space for his tight ends is something Reid does well.

The fact that he now has two receivers who can pull safety coverage, Kelce’s production should continue to skyrocket. Factor in Smith’s love for throwing to the tight end and you have major production potential. If Kelce stays healthy, he too has a chance at a 1,000-yard season.

Considering how little production Smith’s No. 2 receiver has had historically, it’s a lot harder to be high on Conley or Thomas. Conley’s lack of college production and the typical rookie struggles won’t help him either.

Conley and Thomas could be nothing more than ancillary options. Charles will still be heavily involved in the passing game as well, and there are only so many passes to go around.

Charles is probably good for 300-400 receiving yards every year. In 2013, the Chiefs used him more, but now they don’t have to overwork him. No major changes should be expected unless there is an injury.

Putting it Together

The Chiefs have figured out a way to get more production from the passing game. That should be welcome news for Chiefs fans as long as expectations are reasonable.

There will be improvement with Maclin, but a huge jump in production seems unlikely considering other options. There are also more options now, so the Chiefs won’t need Maclin to do as much of the work. In fact, Maclin and Kelce have a mutually beneficial relationship on the field, but only one player can get the ball on a given play.

Conley’s best usage will be as a decoy and blocker rather than a big part of the offense. A larger role for Conley or Thomas would likely offset the production of Kelce, Charles or Maclin.

From a yardage perspective, the last two years have been the most productive of Smith’s career. Last year, he completed 65.3 percent of his passes—second to his 70.2% career high. In 2013, his 3,313 passing yards and 23 touchdowns were both career highs, in 15 games.

If his weapons stay healthy, Smith could be in for another career year, but a 4,000-yard passing season with a 1,400-yard receiver remains unlikely. Expect a lot more of the same from the offense and more from his weapons.