Broncos 2021 Receiving Projections (by a self appointed idiot expert)

[Mingo]

The Broncos completed 320 passes last year over 16 games. I believe the Broncos can complete passes at a better rate than last season (less drops, more Sutton, Jeudy improvement, back up QB will be more competent). Over 17 games I believe the Broncos can get to 385-405 range in completed passes).

Jerry Jeudy - 2nd season improvement curve assisting - goes from 52 catches to 75-80 catches. 1,000 yards received plus - and 6-8 TDs.

Sutton - 60-70 catches - 850 yards - 10-12 receptions

Fant - 50-60 catches 775 - 800 yards - 7-9 TDs

RBS - 40 - 50 catches - 6-8 TDs.

Hamlin - 25-35 catches - 4-6 TDs 600 yards receiving

Tim Patrick - 35-45 catches - 4-6 TDs 700-725 receiving

Other TEs - 15-25
Other WRs - 20-30

The Bronco's passing game has one of the premier players in the league in coming down with the contested football in Sutton, and an elite route runner with electric speed in Jeudy. To cover those guys takes two different skills sets from the defense. Noah Fant stresses the defense as he can out run the safeties in most cases - so he has to be covered shorter -weaker guys. Hamlim presents elite speed and balance - while Tim Patrick offers solid Gold dependability. By drafting LaVonte Bellamy as a talented runner - capable pass catcher added to Melvin Gordons skill sets.

If the Broncos had an established run game to go with the passing threat - @SpringStein could QB this team with the controversial @LGM as the backup.

 

[Orange Crush77]

If we throw 37 tds, on the low end, I’m kissing Springy

 

[Mingo]

If we throw 37 tds, on the low end, I’m kissing Springy

I agree - if that happens you will risk a bumped teeth situation as he will be coming at out at a high rate of speed.

 

[SpringStein]

If we throw 37 tds, on the low end, I’m kissing Springy

As the Mingo-appointed QB, I’m kissing my checking account.

 

[LGM]

As the back up, I'm kissing my bank account and George's doctors.

 

[Mingo]

It's time for the Broncos to save the National Football League - with a team for the ages.

 

[2Kback]

Oooh....can I play? I love playing with the stats to try to predict performance.

By taking previous seasons Target %, Catch%, YPC, and TD%, mixed liberally with artistic license I came up with this breakdown.

Sutton: 77 Rec 1181 Yds 8TD
Jeudy: 70 Rec 1150 Yds 5TD
Fant: 66 Rec 721 Yds 5TD
Patrick: 38 Rec 547 Yds 4TD
Hamler: 38 Rec 478 Yds 4TD
Albert O: 36 Rec 414 YDS 4TD
RBs: 40 Rec 240 Yds 2TD

Give or take a bit on each one obviously.

 

[Mingo]

Oooh....can I play? I love playing with the stats to try to predict performance.

By taking previous seasons Target %, Catch%, YPC, and TD%, mixed liberally with artistic license I came up with this breakdown.

Sutton: 77 Rec 1181 Yds 8TD
Jeudy: 70 Rec 1150 Yds 5TD
Fant: 66 Rec 721 Yds 5TD
Patrick: 38 Rec 547 Yds 4TD
Hamler: 38 Rec 478 Yds 4TD
Albert O: 36 Rec 414 YDS 4TD
RBs: 40 Rec 240 Yds 2TD

Give or take a bit on each one obviously.

I suspect - the receptions out of the backfield will come up from the historical number due to the offense the Broncos insist on using - one of the reasons the Broncos let Lindsay walk away. Both J. Williams and Gordon have pass catching skills - and throwing to the backs - should help Bronco QBs to better stats.

 

[SpringStein]

Oooh....can I play? I love playing with the stats to try to predict performance.

By taking previous seasons Target %, Catch%, YPC, and TD%, mixed liberally with artistic license I came up with this breakdown.

Sutton: 77 Rec 1181 Yds 8TD
Jeudy: 70 Rec 1150 Yds 5TD
Fant: 66 Rec 721 Yds 5TD
Patrick: 38 Rec 547 Yds 4TD
Hamler: 38 Rec 478 Yds 4TD
Albert O: 36 Rec 414 YDS 4TD
RBs: 40 Rec 240 Yds 2TD

Give or take a bit on each one obviously.

Good work. It would be a pleasant surprise if Jeudy makes that kind of jump from year one to two…

 

[2Kback]

That is the risk of using past statistics to predict future performance. It doesn't take into account adjustments in offensive philosophy. So the back could potentially eat up a lot of those receptions if that becomes a feature part of the offense.

That jump for Jeudy really isn't as extreme as it seems.

First off, those predictions are based on a 17 game season. Then I actually only had Jeudy getting 3 more targets in 2021 v. 2020, but I did bump his catch% up to 60% from the 46% he had in 2020. That was the result.

 

[CEH]

32 TDs would be great
last year they said Big Ben had a down year and went for 33/10 . we’d take that here anyday

 

[Mingo]

Good work. It would be a pleasant surprise if Jeudy makes that kind of jump from year one to two…

There's a history of that kind of progression at WR among the good ones. Jeudy seems primed for it.

 

[Mountain Bronco]

Oooh....can I play? I love playing with the stats to try to predict performance.

By taking previous seasons Target %, Catch%, YPC, and TD%, mixed liberally with artistic license I came up with this breakdown.

Sutton: 77 Rec 1181 Yds 8TD
Jeudy: 70 Rec 1150 Yds 5TD
Fant: 66 Rec 721 Yds 5TD
Patrick: 38 Rec 547 Yds 4TD
Hamler: 38 Rec 478 Yds 4TD
Albert O: 36 Rec 414 YDS 4TD
RBs: 40 Rec 240 Yds 2TD

Give or take a bit on each one obviously.

That is a total of 4731 passing yards over an 17 game season which would be 278.29 passing yards per game. That would have ranked second right behind KC last year. While we have the WR, TE and RB talent to get that done, that would be quite the jump and would require some stellar QB play.

 

[2Kback]

That is a total of 4731 passing yards over an 17 game season which would be 278.29 passing yards per game. That would have ranked second right behind KC last year. While we have the WR, TE and RB talent to get that done, that would be quite the jump and would require some stellar QB play.

Would have placed us 5th....but your point stands. It's a dramatic improvement. Beyond just QB play, though that is at the heart of it.

Broken down though, a 30-40 yard per game improvement isn't out of the question. Hell, if Lock could have managed to complete just 5% more of his passes (62.3%), he would have averaged around 250 passing yards per game. That less than 2 passes per game completed instead of dropped, missed or intercepted, per game.

Will it actually happen? Who knows, I like to assume on the positive side.

 

[SpringStein]

Would have placed us 5th....but your point stands. It's a dramatic improvement. Beyond just QB play, though that is at the heart of it.

Broken down though, a 30-40 yard per game improvement isn't out of the question. Hell, if Lock could have managed to complete just 5% more of his passes (62.3%), he would have averaged around 250 passing yards per game. That less than 2 passes per game completed instead of dropped, missed or intercepted, per game.

Will it actually happen? Who knows, I like to assume on the positive side.

It’s possible that being in the second year of the OC, (for the first time in 2,000 years) that will have some built-in improvement as well.

 

[Speardog_Atlas]

If we throw 37 tds, on the low end, I’m kissing Springy

How many did Malhomes throw last year? Yeah 37TD would be absolutely the best case scenario.

 

[2Kback]

How many did Malhomes throw last year? Yeah 37TD would be absolutely the best case scenario.

Denver hasn't broken 21 passing TDS as a team since 2014...just getting 25-30 would be worth celebrating.

 

[Speardog_Atlas]

Denver hasn't broken 21 passing TDS as a team since 2014...just getting 25-30 would be worth celebrating.

Yeah if they could do 25 and 12 I would be celebrating.

 

[Wamu]

Oooh....can I play? I love playing with the stats to try to predict performance.

By taking previous seasons Target %, Catch%, YPC, and TD%, mixed liberally with artistic license I came up with this breakdown.

Sutton: 77 Rec 1181 Yds 8TD
Jeudy: 70 Rec 1150 Yds 5TD
Fant: 66 Rec 721 Yds 5TD
Patrick: 38 Rec 547 Yds 4TD
Hamler: 38 Rec 478 Yds 4TD
Albert O: 36 Rec 414 YDS 4TD
RBs: 40 Rec 240 Yds 2TD

Give or take a bit on each one obviously.

I wanna see the Broncos do well but I think you're hoping for too much. And before you get the wrong idea been here in CO. for 11 years and have gone to multiple games at Mile High each year from '10 until '18.

Looking at last years passing leaders on nfl-.com that 4,731 passing yards you mentioned would have put the Broncos only behind D. Watson (4,832) and Mahomes (4,740). League MVP AR12 had 4,299 yards.

And I'm not sold on the Broncos current QB situation. Not sure if Lock is really the franchise QB the team is looking for. And I think Bridgewater is better than him. But I don't think either of them will throw for 4,500+ yards this season.

One thing for sure, gonna miss Lindsay. Been watching him since his days at CU.

 

[2Kback]

I wanna see the Broncos do well but I think you're hoping for too much. And before you get the wrong idea been here in CO. for 11 years and have gone to multiple games at Mile High each year from '10 until '18.

Looking at last years passing leaders on nfl-.com that 4,731 passing yards you mentioned would have put the Broncos only behind D. Watson (4,832) and Mahomes (4,740). League MVP AR12 had 4,299 yards.

And I'm not sold on the Broncos current QB situation. Not sure if Lock is really the franchise QB the team is looking for. And I think Bridgewater is better than him. But I don't think either of them will throw for 4,500+ yards this season.

One thing for sure, gonna miss Lindsay. Been watching him since his days at CU.

I wouldn't call it a hope, as much as playing with statistics. All those numbers are 100% within possibility as individual statistics based on the factors I expanded on.

Remember that those numbers I posted are based on a 17 games, not 16. If you bump the other QBs to 17 games with average statistics to just the QB passing numbers in 2020, that puts them at.

Watson: 5124
Mahomes: 5372
Brady: 4923
Ryan: 4867
Allen: 4828
Herbert: 4914
Rodgers: 4568

That puts that 4731 in 6th, which is damn high, but again those are not hard predictions. Bump every receiver down a couple receptions like 30 yards and suddenly it's 4521 yards in 17 games for 265.9 Yards per game, basically matching Jared Goff in 2020. Hell, bump them down 50 yards each (still giving us 2 1100 yard receivers), for 257.7 YPG and 4381. That is barely an adjustment for those predictions, but makes a dramatic difference for the team/QB totals.

If the QB who starts this season can't hit numbers like that, which would barely put them in the top half of the league, then we should probably move on from them both.

That said, there are MASSIVE variables that aren't taken into account. So yes, this is likely on the high side when looking at the overall combined performance those predictions suggest. I tend to err on the side of the positive when number crunching. So they are realistic, but based on some pretty optimistic assumptions.