AFC West - 2013 Edition

[MileHigh64]

Training camps haven't even started, so it's way too early to start making divisional predictions, but I'm so bored and football starved, I'm going to do it anyway!

In an earlier thread, I predicted that the Broncos would achieve a record of 12-4 and win the division. I'm sticking to that for now. They have a pretty tough schedule on paper right now, but we'll see how things stack up when the season gets underway. I continue to be pretty excited about the things that I've heard coming out of OTAs. Top that off with a good off-season and a good draft and the Broncos made enough moves to have strength in every position. My greatest hope for the Broncos aside from winning the division, the conference and the Super Bowl, is that they return to a form of dominance and crush other teams earlier in the game. Fast, furious and unforgiving, I say!

Kansas City represents the greatest chance to put pressure on the Broncos if you look at their roster on paper, their coaching changes and their upgrade at quarterback. Alex Smith is not a top tier quarterback, but with that running game and defense, he should be able to manage the game well and cut down on turnovers. We'll see what kind of chemistry the Chiefs can build in their clubhouse, as they've undergone a lot of change. We've all seen bad teams come together very quickly through sweeping changes in the past (see 2012 Colts). With the NFC East and AFC South on the docket, there are a number of pretty tough games for the Chiefs. I see them going 8-8 or maybe 9-7.

San Diego has gone through an overhaul of it's own. It will be interesting to see if Mike McCoy can get Phillip Rivers back on track. I'm betting he will. Unfortunately for Rivers, his offensive line is still not good and he doesn't have the kind of weapons around him that he used to. Gates will still get his numbers, but the defense will more than likely be middle of the pack at best. San Diego's slide from quite a few years as the team to beat in the AFCW will continue. I see them finishing up around 5-11.

The Oakland Raiders battle cry should be "purge!", because that's exactly what Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen have been doing since they got there. They inherited a pile of monkey dung a couple of years ago and they have gotten their finances back close to even. The Raiders will continue to be bad for another two years as they re-load. They'll get plenty of high draft picks in the next couple of years and I think Reggie McKenzie will probably do a good job once the playing field is more level for his club. I don't think Dennis Allen will be the coach in 2014 because the organization just won't allow him to have 3 bad seasons in a row, even if it's not his fault. Raiders get the 2nd or 3rd pick in next year's draft with a 3 or 4 win season in 2013.

Now, it's pretty common to see a division get turned upside down by a team coming out of nowhere. Since the Chiefs are once again a sexy pick this upcoming season, I don't see them coming out of nowhere (although 2-14 is bad, really bad!). Maybe the Chargers could surprise, but they just aren't strong enough in the trenches. Oakland? Yeah right.....when monkey's fly out of Mark Davis' butt!

So there you have it. Denver has another shot coming to advance in the playoffs and grab the Lombardi this year. Stay healthy boys and Go Broncos!!

MH64

 

[Broncos6482]

Denver is clearly the cream of this division. However, you're wrong that Denver has a tough schedule on paper. Actually, their schedule is the easiest in the NFL when you go by last season's winning percentage. That's to be expected when you don't play a division opponent that finished above .500.

Frankly, nobody in this division should even threaten Denver. The Chargers are going downhill, they might be a 6 or 7 win team. The Raiders will compete with the Jaguars for the number 1 pick in next years draft. The Chiefs will be better but not nearly as good as people think. They had a lot more problems than just qb last year, and getting a mediocre qb won't immediately fix all of their problems. Plus, Andy Reid has never seen a good running back that he couldn't ignore, so I'd expect Charles to take a step back in production this season.

I think Denver is a 12 to 14 win team this year if everything breaks right. They'll run away and hide from the division again.

Broncos - 13-3
Chiefs - 7-9
Chargers - 6-10
Raiders - 2-14

 

[MileHigh64]

You're right about the schedule on paper 6482, but I'm looking at what our opponents have done historically, what they have done in the off season, where the game is played and any contributing story lines. I still have them at 12-4 on the season though. I guess I'm just trying to temper my enthusiasm a bit about the Broncos, but I would of course be just fine with a 14 win season!

Go Broncos!!

MH64

 

[Black Adam]

You're right about the schedule on paper 6482, but I'm looking at what our opponents have done historically, what they have done in the off season, where the game is played and any contributing story lines. I still have them at 12-4 on the season though. I guess I'm just trying to temper my enthusiasm a bit about the Broncos, but I would of course be just fine with a 14 win season!

Go Broncos!!

MH64

not bad predictions here. nicely done. the Chiefs WILL be better than expected and that's NOT coming from simply drinking Chiefs kool-aid. i'm thinking 9-7 and a 10-6 season actually wouldn't suprise me. as far as the Chargers go i've always said that Norv Turner was a big reason the team didn't do so well and he's gone now.. to say they're no threat imo is a bit much. the Raiders? well, who can argue...?

as far as the post season, well guess we'll see soon enough. i'm not 100% sold the Donks are a Super Bowl lock, but if they did get there it wouldn't be an overwhelming suprise. the upcoming season SHOULD be very interesting...

 

[MileHigh64]

CL67-

I don't disagree that Norv Turner ground the Chargers down over the years, but I'm just looking at the lack of talent on their roster in some key areas....namely their lines. Could they surprise all of us? Sure....but I just don't see them as much as a threat as they used to be.

I'm also not penciling the Broncos in for a Super Bowl lock. It's nearly impossible for any team to do that at the beginning of the year. I do however think this team has the talent to make a run for the Super Bowl.

We'll see on your Chiefs. Lotsa talent on your roster, but chemistry and coaching coming together at the right time can be a fickle thing. We've all see it go the right way and we've seen it go the wrong way. Ten wins is not out of the question, but I still see 9 for the Chiefs at best.

As long as the Broncos win the AFCW and have a shot at the big dance, I'll take that for now!

Go Broncos!!

MH64

 

[Black Adam]

CL67-

I don't disagree that Norv Turner ground the Chargers down over the years, but I'm just looking at the lack of talent on their roster in some key areas....namely their lines. Could they surprise all of us? Sure....but I just don't see them as much as a threat as they used to be.

I'm also not penciling the Broncos in for a Super Bowl lock. It's nearly impossible for any team to do that at the beginning of the year. I do however think this team has the talent to make a run for the Super Bowl.

We'll see on your Chiefs. Lotsa talent on your roster, but chemistry and coaching coming together at the right time can be a fickle thing. We've all see it go the right way and we've seen it go the wrong way. Ten wins is not out of the question, but I still see 9 for the Chiefs at best.

As long as the Broncos win the AFCW and have a shot at the big dance, I'll take that for now!

Go Broncos!!

MH64

100% agree. the Chiefs OTA's sound VERY positive, but what does that really mean? can't buy into anything at this point...

 

[MileHigh64]

Yeah, it's an easy trap to fall into when you are closely following your team's media coverage. Much of it is a result of interviewing players. What else are they going to say, but this team is really gelling right now! This is the time of year when all fans think their team has a shot at 16-0!

MH64

 

[Orange-and-Blue]

Yeah, it's an easy trap to fall into when you are closely following your team's media coverage. Much of it is a result of interviewing players. What else are they going to say, but this team is really gelling right now! This is the time of year when all fans think their team has a shot at 16-0!

MH64

Except for Jets fans.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Baring an injury to Manning the Broncos will win the division with ease. I hope my Chargers suck big time this year so they can get Clowney. I doubt it happens though. The Raiders can't do anything right. Their 1st round pick is already out.

 

[MileHigh64]

Except for Jets fans.

I suppose you could add the Browns, Jags, Raiders, Cardinals, Dolphins, Titans, Lions and quite a few others to that list of fans who don't get too amped after decades of failed expectations.

Thank God the Broncos have been relevant most years for the past several decades.

Go Broncos!!

MH64

 

[Broncos6482]

not bad predictions here. nicely done. the Chiefs WILL be better than expected and that's NOT coming from simply drinking Chiefs kool-aid. i'm thinking 9-7 and a 10-6 season actually wouldn't suprise me. as far as the Chargers go i've always said that Norv Turner was a big reason the team didn't do so well and he's gone now.. to say they're no threat imo is a bit much. the Raiders? well, who can argue...?

as far as the post season, well guess we'll see soon enough. i'm not 100% sold the Donks are a Super Bowl lock, but if they did get there it wouldn't be an overwhelming suprise. the upcoming season SHOULD be very interesting...

Eh, I heard the same song, different verse last season with the Chiefs. But I'm just not convinced they're actually all that talented. Charles is a great running back, but having a great running back just doesn't mean much anymore in the NFL. Outside of Bowe (who isn't even as good as he thinks he is), no one on the team will scare anyone in the passing game. Alex Smith is definitely an upgrade at qb, but he's still in the bottom third of starting qb's in the NFL.

Defensively, they've got a few nice pieces, but no real stand out talents outside of Derrick Johnson. Hali is a decent pass rusher, but he's only hit double digit sacks twice in 7 seasons. Houston has potential, but he seems to have hit a wall last season, he was held sackless the final 4 games of the season. Berry wasn't the same last year after his knee injury. Flowers and Smith are good corners, but Robinson is overrated (the Falcons pass defense was statistically better last year when he was out). The Chiefs appear to me to be a middle of the road offense and defense, and will probably finish in the 6-9 win range, 6 if nothing goes right, 9 if every break and bounce goes their way. I still think they're a 7-9 team.

As for the Chargers, Norv was a problem but they just don't have that much talent anymore. Their lines are a disaster, Matthews is made of glass, they've got no receivers, Gates is old and not that good anymore, they've got no pass rushers (Freeney is washed up), and Rivers is a turnover machine.

As for Denver, I don't think anyone considers them a lock for the Super Bowl, too much can happen in the playoffs (as we all witnessed last year). However, you certainly have to put them on the short list of teams likely to make the Super Bowl from the AFC, along with New England, Houston, and Baltimore.

 

[Black Adam]

Eh, I heard the same song, different verse last season with the Chiefs. But I'm just not convinced they're actually all that talented. Charles is a great running back, but having a great running back just doesn't mean much anymore in the NFL. Outside of Bowe (who isn't even as good as he thinks he is), no one on the team will scare anyone in the passing game. Alex Smith is definitely an upgrade at qb, but he's still in the bottom third of starting qb's in the NFL.

Defensively, they've got a few nice pieces, but no real stand out talents outside of Derrick Johnson. Hali is a decent pass rusher, but he's only hit double digit sacks twice in 7 seasons. Houston has potential, but he seems to have hit a wall last season, he was held sackless the final 4 games of the season. Berry wasn't the same last year after his knee injury. Flowers and Smith are good corners, but Robinson is overrated (the Falcons pass defense was statistically better last year when he was out). The Chiefs appear to me to be a middle of the road offense and defense, and will probably finish in the 6-9 win range, 6 if nothing goes right, 9 if every break and bounce goes their way. I still think they're a 7-9 team.

As for the Chargers, Norv was a problem but they just don't have that much talent anymore. Their lines are a disaster, Matthews is made of glass, they've got no receivers, Gates is old and not that good anymore, they've got no pass rushers (Freeney is washed up), and Rivers is a turnover machine.

As for Denver, I don't think anyone considers them a lock for the Super Bowl, too much can happen in the playoffs (as we all witnessed last year). However, you certainly have to put them on the short list of teams likely to make the Super Bowl from the AFC, along with New England, Houston, and Baltimore.

LOL, well i TRY not to drink too much Chiefs kool-aid. maybe that's the problem here. but this is kind of the school of thought i'm coming from. i happen to think they ARE more talented than we saw last season. reason: Coaching. now i'm not saying it's the ONLY reason the Chiefs stunk, but it certainly factored in A LOT imo. i somewhat understand your knock on Berry, but it was only the guy's second season. he'll improve. Robinson will only see spot duty(nickel), so no worries there. i think for the most part the talent's IS there. how much? who knows 'til the season gets under way. now i'm not going out on a limb and saying that they'll set the league on fire, but i still feel they'll be much better than last year. hell, how can they NOT? and that's just from better coaching alone...

after hearing you and MH64's assessment of the lines of the Chargers i may have to change my mind, but i still think they have a tad left also based on their coaching change. let's face it, Norv Turner was ALWAYS a terrible coach. as for Rivers, hate his throwing mechanics, he DOES turn the ball over a lot, but he has been more successful than he has failed. just sayin'...

honestly can't argue the rest about the Bolts, though...

 

[Broncos6482]

LOL, well i TRY not to drink too much Chiefs kool-aid. maybe that's the problem here. but this is kind of the school of thought i'm coming from. i happen to think they ARE more talented than we saw last season. reason: Coaching. now i'm not saying it's the ONLY reason the Chiefs stunk, but it certainly factored in A LOT imo. i somewhat understand your knock on Berry, but it was only the guy's second season. he'll improve. Robinson will only see spot duty(nickel), so no worries there. i think for the most part the talent's IS there. how much? who knows 'til the season gets under way. now i'm not going out on a limb and saying that they'll set the league on fire, but i still feel they'll be much better than last year. hell, how can they NOT? and that's just from better coaching alone...

after hearing you and MH64's assessment of the lines of the Chargers i may have to change my mind, but i still think they have a tad left also based on their coaching change. let's face it, Norv Turner was ALWAYS a terrible coach. as for Rivers, hate his throwing mechanics, he DOES turn the ball over a lot, but he has been more successful than he has failed. just sayin'...

honestly can't argue the rest about the Bolts, though...

I get what you're saying about Berry, who knows he may turn it up and become the player he showed promise of becoming his rookie year.

As for Robinson, with the proliferation of 3 receiver sets, teams play the nickel a lot more than the used to. In fact, I think the Broncos had at least 5 defensive backs about 60% of the time last season. No idea what the Chiefs numbers were, but I'm sure it's fairly similar.

I do like the addition of Andy Reid, though, I think he's a very good coach and he's got a great track record with qb's, so that's a good hire as far as I'm concerned. I just think the Chiefs aren't as talented as people think, but I guess we'll see once the season starts.

Totally agree on Norv, no one can underachieve as a head coach like he can, but really, I just think the cupboard in San Diego is pretty bare.

 

[braves66boy]

Reid maybe a good coach, but he sucks at 3rd and short. 3rd and short equals punt with him because it usually is an incomplete pass because he does not likely running the football. He will find a way to make their defense awful because he is an offensive minded coach.