2024 Rookie Critique

[averagejoe]

Finally, all of the board's rookie dynasty drafts are over.
And @Chef99 says he's bored.

How about we share our thoughts on the rookies we just hitched to our dynasty wagons. (Or someone else's rookie selections.)

Thought i can get the ball rolling with FantasyPros' 13 rookies they think will be a bust.

Enjoy. Or not.

13 Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid (Fantasy Football)

As we gear up for the upcoming 2024 Fantasy Football season, we turn our attention to one of the most intriguing and unpredictable aspects of the game – the rookie class. Each year, a new wave of talent enters the … read more »

www.fantasypros.com

 

[averagejoe]

Use the 5 "D's" of dodgeball.

Dodge​

Deflect​

Discredit​

Defend​

& Dodge​

 

[TREFF]

Finally, all of the board's rookie dynasty drafts are over.
And @Chef99 says he's bored.

How about we share our thoughts on the rookies we just hitched to our dynasty wagons. (Or someone else's rookie selections.)

Thought i can get the ball rolling with FantasyPros' 13 rookies they think will be a bust.

Enjoy. Or not.

13 Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid (Fantasy Football)

As we gear up for the upcoming 2024 Fantasy Football season, we turn our attention to one of the most intriguing and unpredictable aspects of the game – the rookie class. Each year, a new wave of talent enters the … read more »

www.fantasypros.com

I would pretty much agree with everything they mentioned. My only real caveat would be that, while everything is pretty much spot on, were these guys over valued, or drafted where they were due to lack of appealing alternatives?
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for taking Corum late first/ early second when all that's sitting there is random WR's- most of whom are also on their over valued list. What was a dynasty owner supposed to do? Pass? Reach for a random TE? Take a QB slated for the bench for at least a year or two?

The only other thing I see..putting J. Brooks in the over valued ranks. Take a gander through all your dynasty leagues at the roster makeups of all the teams, and tell me there aren't more teams that need a RB, than there are teams who NEED a WR. Of course the only RB who appears to be a solid NFL prospect, and who went to a team where there isn't a locked in starter, was going to be drafted highly.
Of course these guys have 10-12 WR's, a few QB'S and a TE ranked higher than any RB in this class, I did too. They last longer, and the scoring is skewed towards pass catchers...but those rankings don't take into account roster needs of any team owner.

 

[averagejoe]

I can unbiasedly say i disagree with their assessment of WR Troy Franklin. He gets to play with his college QB, and with a new QB, there is the nuance of a new offensive mentality.

I think the chemistry Nix and Franklin have will only help. Even if Sutton is the WR1, i cant see Nix being told to force throws to a double-covered Sutton if Franklin is facing single coverage.

 

[leftypower]

I would pretty much agree with everything they mentioned. My only real caveat would be that, while everything is pretty much spot on, were these guys over valued, or drafted where they were due to lack of appealing alternatives?
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for taking Corum late first/ early second when all that's sitting there is random WR's- most of whom are also on their over valued list. What was a dynasty owner supposed to do? Pass? Reach for a random TE? Take a QB slated for the bench for at least a year or two?

The only other thing I see..putting J. Brooks in the over valued ranks. Take a gander through all your dynasty leagues at the roster makeups of all the teams, and tell me there aren't more teams that need a RB, than there are teams who NEED a WR. Of course the only RB who appears to be a solid NFL prospect, and who went to a team where there isn't a locked in starter, was going to be drafted highly.
Of course these guys have 10-12 WR's, a few QB'S and a TE ranked higher than any RB in this class, I did too. They last longer, and the scoring is skewed towards pass catchers...but those rankings don't take into account roster needs of any team owner.

BING !!!!!!!!!! Team needs can never be factored into these general analysis - and that turns out to be single most important part in considering who you draft (that's only if it's somewhat close between your choices). If you already have Mahomes and say Hurts on a non-superflex roster - why would you burn a pick on Caleb when you could have Harrison or Nabers ?

 

[TREFF]

I can unbiasedly say i disagree with their assessment of WR Troy Franklin. He gets to play with his college QB, and with a new QB, there is the nuance of a new offensive mentality.

I think the chemistry Nix and Franklin have will only help. Even if Sutton is the WR1, i cant see Nix being told to force throws to a double-covered Sutton if Franklin is facing single coverage.

There's still pretty heavy rumors in these parts that Sutton isn't around come week 1. But, there's still Josh Reynolds - a proven NFL caliber WR albeit less than exciting, Tim Patrick - another proven NFL caliber WR, and Marvin Mims - who they trade dup for and selected in the second round in '22, and of course that rookie QB who may or may not be good enough to actually play in the NFL. Sure we assume he will be, but who knows?

Assuming Sutton is gone, there's still substantial obstacles in the path of Franklin, a 4th round selection, being productive early on. If by some miracle Sutton sticks around, than he's really in for a long row to hoe. I have yet to see a realistic projection of Franklin being one of the starting 3 receivers in Denver. Only If Sutton is gone and IF Patrick is washed up after his string of injuries, that's when he sneaks in there

 

[leftypower]

Well this is the latest fantasy pro mock. ..... interesting how all of the names listed as 'overvalued' are taken in almost the exact spot as ADP has them ranked. ......

 

[averagejoe]

Jon Brooks sure has fallen. Think i saw him as high as #4.

 

[averagejoe]

I know landing spot impacts decisions too.

Maybe this is stand-alone example but (if memory serves), Alvin Kamara's stock dropped because he was selected by the Saints who had Mark Ingram. Want to say that by the end of the season, Kamara was getting more touches.

Maybe i'll get burned for ignoring the landing spot this year? We'll see.

 

[TREFF]

I know landing spot impacts decisions too.

Maybe this is stand-alone example but (if memory serves), Alvin Kamara's stock dropped because he was selected by the Saints who had Mark Ingram. Want to say that by the end of the season, Kamara was getting more touches.

Maybe i'll get burned for ignoring the landing spot this year? We'll see.

they not only had Ingram, but they also had Adrian Peterson pre Washington/Detroit..he was still decent. And Kamara was considered a bit of a wild card entering the draft..many had him labeled as nothing more than a change of pace back/3rd down type guy

 

[HaroldSeattle]

they not only had Ingram, but they also had Adrian Peterson pre Washington/Detroit..he was still decent. And Kamara was considered a bit of a wild card entering the draft..many had him labeled as nothing more than a change of pace back/3rd down type guy

On top of that Kamara was part of a committee in college.

 

[leftypower]

I know landing spot impacts decisions too.

Maybe this is stand-alone example but (if memory serves), Alvin Kamara's stock dropped because he was selected by the Saints who had Mark Ingram. Want to say that by the end of the season, Kamara was getting more touches.

Maybe i'll get burned for ignoring the landing spot this year? We'll see.

There is a lot to be said for where they go. .... a more recent example is Puka Nacua who most thought had little to no value with Kupp in town. And many thought Quentin Johnston would be gold with the rumored trades of Williams and Allen. ... sometimes you pay your money and take a stab.

 

[TREFF]

There is a lot to be said for where they go. .... a more recent example is Puka Nacua who most thought had little to no value with Kupp in town. And many thought Quentin Johnston would be gold with the rumored trades of Williams and Allen. ... sometimes you pay your money and take a stab.

that and he was a 5th round receiver out of BYU, I'm not sure anyone would've expected much out of him regardless of where he landed..hell Kupp himself was more of an afterthought to most as a third rounder from Eastern Washington..pretty sure i grabbed him the 3rd round, or later, back then.

 

[leftypower]

that and he was a 5th round receiver out of BYU, I'm not sure anyone would've expected much out of him regardless of where he landed..hell Kupp himself was more of an afterthought to most as a third rounder from Eastern Washington..pretty sure i grabbed him the 3rd round, or later, back then.

Just think how awesome teams would be IF we hadn't ignored certain guys who made it or cut-bait too soon. I'm littered with examples. Most recent was St. Brown for me. Drafted him in two leagues in the 3rd RD. Cut him after 3 games of nothing - then could never get him back off waivers.

 

[TREFF]

Just think how awesome teams would be IF we hadn't ignored certain guys who made it or cut-bait too soon. I'm littered with examples. Most recent was St. Brown for me. Drafted him in two leagues in the 3rd RD. Cut him after 3 games of nothing - then could never get him back off waivers.

yep..Kupp, CMAC, Lamaar, even had Nakua in one just cuz I thought his name sounded cool..meanwhile I'd hang onto the Joe WIllaims's of the league until my dying breath..fml

 

[Bandit]

This was my favorite of the many stupid ass quotes in this article:

"When you also add in that Rams head coach Sean McVay rarely trusts one running back to take a full workload, and it seems unlikely for Corum to become a player that is consistent enough to rely on.”

Did they watch the Rams play football last year? Williams was a true workhorse back and the games he was out, they dragged Darrell Henderson off his couch and made him a true workhorse back instead of going to a committee. Whatever jackass said that has no idea what he's talking about.

 

[TREFF]

This was my favorite of the many stupid ass quotes in this article:

"When you also add in that Rams head coach Sean McVay rarely trusts one running back to take a full workload, and it seems unlikely for Corum to become a player that is consistent enough to rely on.”

Did they watch the Rams play football last year? Williams was a true workhorse back and the games he was out, they dragged Darrell Henderson off his couch and made him a true workhorse back instead of going to a committee. Whatever jackass said that has no idea what he's talking about.

Alf, Gurley, hell even Michel and Akers were 'work horses' while they were active, McVay, almost always uses one main RB. The only time he doesn't, is when he can't keep one guy upright for longer than 4-5 games.

Probably just some stat whore who looked at season totals and summarized that since Akers and Michel and Henderson and whomever, all had a whole bunch of touches any given season that there was a mutli back system all year long. When in reality, game by game, its primarily one guy, until he's either dead, or ineffective, then it's the next guy until he's dead or ineffective, and so on.

very similar RB history to that of the Hoodie in that regard..misunderstood to say the least. If there's a workhorse that is available, he'll use him like one.

 

[TREFF]

but back onto Joe's overall point, rather than rehashing the 'good old days' where we f'ed it all up ..

my rookie critique?
after the top 4-5 WR's, the one TE, and the 3 QB's, this was quite possibly the weakest class in five years or so. I know so many others hold the WR position in high regard in this class..but I honestly don't see it.

3 potential STUDS at WR. And I don't disagree with any of them, they all certainly have the look of being future, weekly, fantasy #1 WR's. Anyone in a normal sized, standard or PPR league who took any one but those 3 first, probably screwed up (myself included in D1). But beyond those 3, there was a group of 2- Brian Thomas, and Lad McConkey, who also appear to have something a little special, and after that..just a bunch of specialists and #2WR types. Don't get me wrong, there's a place in the NFL and on fantasy rosters for #2 WR's, but the overall point being, there's nothing that truly separates this bunch of 10 or so prospects, from the next 15 or so that went later on. I wouldn't lay a significant wager on Worthy, Mitchell, Pearsal, Coleman..etc..being a great asset, any faster than I would make the same wager on Franklin, McAffrey, Thrash or Rice. To me, they may as well all have an equal chance of success.

RB's were just absolute trash, exacerbated by horrid landing spots, there were a grand total of 2 RB's that had the look of an actual NFL RB- J. Brooks, and M. Lloyd. everyone else, has role player written all over them at best. There are a couple, like Benson, Corum and Wright, who might be decent contributors if given the right circumstances, or perhaps they still have some 'blossoming" to be done, but the rest, they sure do seem to be waiver fodder and not long for the league.

in short..if you didn't want/need a QB..after the top 8 picks of this draft, it really didn't matter who was picked next, in terms of 'reaching' or 'over value-ing' An argument could easily be made to take any of them, at any point, and based on your roster's needs, you most likely made the right choice, even if it doesn't end up working out in your favor. There just was no big reason to go any one particular direction over another after those top 8 or so. I can find no good reason to fault any pick, at any position, after that point

 

[HaroldSeattle]

after the top 4-5 WR's, the one TE, and the 3 QB's, this was quite possibly the weakest class in five years or so.

First part of that sentence "After the top 4-5 WR's, the one TE, and the 3 QB's" is enough for me to grade this class as a strong one (unless your in a standard scoring league).

3 potential STUDS at WR

That's quiet few for one draft at one position.

Brian Thomas, and Lad McConkey, who also appear to have something a little special,

Yeah agree, some might add Worthy, but mostly because of the Mahomes effect. Still 5 WRs in a draft that can help solidify a team WR corp is above the average draft class IMO.

after that..just a bunch of specialists and #2WR

Yes but it has a large amount of these, more then you usually see in a draft.

RB's were just absolute trash

Agreed. This really sucks but in a PPR league (or Super Flex) the WRs and QBs make up for it unless your really hurting at RB vs the rest of the league.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I brought this up before, but going to say it again. We have to lower our expectations in regard to RBs coming out of the draft. I use to say draft RB's and trade for WR's, think now it could be the reverse. The NFL has been drafting RB's late, using them as long as they are under a rookie contract then letting them go. Been going on long enough to have an effect on talent on the position. If your an elite athlete why would you want to play RB in college? Looking at OTC top contracts for WR and RB you get this: