2023 Conference Finals Predictions Thread.

[nuraman00]

Are you interested in either of the two assisters in the playoffs, in Jokic and James?

What about the best stealer? Well Murray is averaging 3.0 steals in his series, and Butler is averaging 3.7 steals in his. So those are some great numbers.

Smart is the leading assister in his series, but I am more interested in Butler as an assister, because of his size.

Bump @MHSL82?

 

[nuraman00]

Kyle Lowry starting.

@MHSL82, does that increase the likelihood of him having game winning assists in the playoffs?

 

[nuraman00]

Another seemingly shitty game.

 

[nuraman00]

Miami has been making 3's, but has been down so far.

Butler has been misfiring.

Tatum getting to the foul line a lot, 11/11 so far, early 3rd.

Boston has lead or tied all game I think. They're up by a little.

 

[nuraman00]

Close game, early 4th.

 

[nuraman00]

That is one of the most memorable final minute of a postseason game I've seen.

Congrats to Boston.

For Adebayo, a center cannot go 4-16.

Another observation I have is that the past several games, Butler hasn't guarded anyone, just giving space to most Celtics defenders.

Meanwhile, Brown has guarded Butler, and been great on defense. Brown had several deflections and steals in game 5.

Today, he had several contests which contributed to Butler's poor FG%.

And, that defense helped Brown on offense, as it lead to easier shots in transition, instead of a set defense.

This is why I like seeing my best defensive players used, because it usually helps them have easier opportunities on offense, because they're then getting rebounds and having scoring opportunities with the other team on their heels, instead of on their toes.

Better defense usually leads to easier offense, and less effort on offense.

 

[MHSL82]

Meanwhile, Brown has guarded Butler, and been great on defense. Brown had several deflections and steals in game 5.

Today, he had several contests which contributed to Butler's poor FG%

So was it Browns really good defense or a Butler’s poor shooting or both?

 

[nuraman00]

So was it Browns really good defense or a Butler’s poor shooting or both?

Brown's good defense.

Butler thought he had to do a lot of pump fakes, and misfired. He made Butler think out there and hesitate.

Amost all of Butler's FGs were on drives when Brown was screened out or not in the play. When Butler could make a hard drive and score without faking, he made his FGs.

When he had to try and shake off his defender, he ended up missing.

Also there's been some other threads I haven't gotten to in a while. I will get to them when I allocate the proper time to read and respond.

 

[nuraman00]

Duncan Robinson also had two wide open looks for 3 in the final minute, and missed.

That would have been the reason why Miami lost, if it hadn't been for the offensive rebound putback they gave up to Derrick White.

Well no game comes down to a single play, but Robinson's two misses would have been more discussed, if Miami had never taken the lead in the final seconds, only to lose it.

 

[nuraman00]

So, as a Jazz fan, what do you remember when the Jazz had a 3-0 lead against Denver, and it went to a game 7, in 1994?

That was one year before I started following the NBA. So I have no memory.

And I've never seen the series on a replay.

 

[nuraman00]

Why did the Jazz win their games, and why did Denver win theirs?

 

[MHSL82]

Why did the Jazz win their games, and why did Denver win theirs?

The Jazz scored more points in their wins. Denver held the Jazz to lower points in their wins.

 

[MHSL82]

 

[nuraman00]

The Jazz scored more points in their wins. Denver held the Jazz to lower points in their wins.

Bad post.

Do you have a good answer?

 

[nuraman00]

I'm not sure if I believe this. I think there might have been a few others.

I guess if I were to try and disprove this, I'd first need to find all elimination games that were decided by 3 points or less (accounting for 4 point plays).

 

[MHSL82]

Bad post.

Do you have a good answer?

No, that was my good post. The reasons the Jazz won or the Nuggets won would be found by looking at the games themselves. I remember almost losing the series and then not losing the series but not winning the championship so it doesn’t matter. But the whys aren’t known without looking at the games themselves which you would be better at than me.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm not sure if I believe this. I think there might have been a few others.

I guess if I were to try and disprove this, I'd first need to find all elimination games that were decided by 3 points or less (accounting for 4 point plays).

So this would mean that the six game winners were not at the buzzer or not when they were trailing (tie game).

The stats are cool, but they’re too often “the first time“ that I feel like it is either very cherry picked, inaccurate, a troll job for gullible people, etc.

 

[nuraman00]

No, that was my good post. The reasons the Jazz won or the Nuggets won would be found by looking at the games themselves. I remember almost losing the series and then not losing the series but not winning the championship so it doesn’t matter. But the whys aren’t known without looking at the games themselves which you would be better at than me.

False.

Winning or losing a series still matters, even if it doesn't result in a championship. It's fun and important to know why they won or lost, so they can be better in the future.

We are both equally good at looking at games.

 

[nuraman00]

So this would mean that the six game winners were not at the buzzer or not when they were trailing (tie game).

The stats are cool, but they’re too often “the first time“ that I feel like it is either very cherry picked, inaccurate, a troll job for gullible people, etc.

I agree. This is way too cherry picked, for the one in #53.

There's 4 things that have to occur:

1) Has to be a game-winner. Can't be a game tying shot.
2) Has to be a buzzer beater.
3) Team making the shot has to be facing elimination.
4) Team making the shot had to have been losing before they made the shot.

That's too many things.

If we just talked about all game winning buzzer beaters, then we could have a good discussion and have enough to compare.

Or if we talked about all game winners where the team went from losing to winning, then we would have enough to compare.

For example, this assist by Batum to Lillard is pretty cool, because Lillard had to make the shot for Portland to win the game:

0:01.0	T. Jones enters the game for J. Lin		98-96
0:00.0			98-99	+3	D. Lillard makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by N. Batum)

This was game 6 between Portland and Houston in 2014. That won the series.

Adding in the fact that the losing team had to have been facing elimination, adds too many constraints.

It would be good enough to talk about game winners when facing elimination. No need to add the constraint of it being a buzzer beater, or that the team had to have been losing before they made the shot.

If we just talked about series winning shots, we could have a good discussion.

I've always loved this Damon Jones one. He first entered the game when there were 14.1 seconds left. His official playing time for the game is 14 seconds.

And he made the series winning shot:

0:04.8

D. Jones makes 2-pt jump shot from 17 ft (assist by L. Hughes)

+2

114-113

Why doesn't ESPN ever come up with a list of buzzer beating defensive stops to win the game?

The Charles Smith one is pretty famous, because he missed so many layups in the closing seconds for Chicago to hold on. Maybe that's not a good defensive job by Chicago if they let Smith take so many shots.

1993 NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 5: Bulls vs Knicks, June 2, 1993 | Basketball-Reference.com

CHI (97) vs NYK (94). Get the box score, shot charts and play by play summary of the Bulls vs Knicks Game 5, June 2, 1993.

www.basketball-reference.com

A better defensive job would have been not letting the other team even get a shot off.

There's no play by play, so without watching the video, I can't see how many shot attempts he got off. I don't want to look that up.

But maybe ESPN should come up with what would be a great list, which is final buzzer beating defensive plays where the other team doesn't get a shot off in time.

 

[nuraman00]

I liked the game 7. Miami forced turnovers and played a normal game for the most part.

Boston kept jacking up 3's and lost.

5 of 7 games in a series have been won on the road between these teams, two years in a row.

8 of the last 11 game 7's have been won on the road, and 11 of 17.

I would have given the MVP to Caleb Martin.