2015 Top Prospects

[Stokes1931]

Obviously not a good line. I don't he's been converted to the bullpen yet though. He got so little work his last outing, they probably used today (his normal bullpen day) to get him some extra pitches.

That said, I think he's destined for the Pen. I think the Giants will give him another year though. With Beede's rise, Mella's rise, and Mejia's return, they can afford to be patient.

You may be right.

I went to Stockton to see Mella pitch tonight. His fastball was electric and topped out at 95 on the stadium radar. (But then again, it is the Cal League.)

His control was awful, though. He walked the first batter, got a FC on the second, walked the third batter, and then hit the next two batters for a run. In the 2nd inning, he hit one of those same guys again. He pitched three innings, and really struggled. I was interested that he pitched entirely out of the stretch, even with no runners on, which was rare tonight.

Villalona looks like Pablo Jr., but without the hitting of fielding skills. He's a statue at 1st.

Arroyo hit a mammoth HR to center in the first inning, and Ryder Jones had a couple nice at bats. Other than that, the San Jose bats were quiet until I left in the 7th.

 

[Stokes1931]

Giants break bank, agree to sign Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox to club-record $6 million bonus - Giants Extra

 

[SFGRTB]

Cal got me thinking about a mid-season top-10, and the game ending early has given me time to reflect on this too.

For perspective, here is my pre-season top 10:

1. Susac (MLB)
2. Beede (AA)
3. Crick (AA)
4. Arroyo (A+)
5. Mella (A+)
6. Blackburn (AAA)
7. Duffy (MLB)
8. Carbonell (A+)
9. Williamson (AAA)
10. Luis Ysla (A+)

Susac, Duffy, Carbonell and Ysla are off the list. The first 2 have graduated, the last 2 have played their way off.

My mid-season top-10:

1. Tyler Beede - His ascension to the top of the prospects list is well deserved. He has shown that he is coach-able and that has paid off with a simpler delivery that has him throwing more strikes, as well as two new pitches in his repertoire. They include the heavy, sinking 2-seamer and a hard cutter, both plus potential offerings, to go along with his high-90s fastball and big curveball. Changeup is a work-in-progress. He could push for a sot in the rotation next season.

2. Keury Mella - Throws a 95mph with natural downward movement, generating tons of ground balls. He's a strike thrower, with a great feel for pitching. The concern is his limited offerings. With the fastball, he throws a power curve and changeup, both average to plus. He's never going to be a big strikeout guy unless he comes up with another pitch, but he should be a serviceable mid rotation starter. The other concern is his delivery. He throws with the "inverted W", which leads to a lot of UCL injuries, which leads to Tommy John (this is the inverted W, and this is Mella pitching). Some guys though have good genes and avoid these injuries (Mariano Rivera, Clayton Kershaw, Felix), others don't (Wainwright, Strasburg, Mark Prior, Zach Wheeler). Mella has been healthy so far, so only time will tell.

3. Christian Arroyo - Gap to gap power, sprays loud contact all over the field, leadership qualities in the clubhouse. He needs to improve his walk rate, and he can be prone to strikeouts, and sometimes he's homer-happy. When he stays in himself though, he is a really special hitter. Potential .300 hitter with 10-15 homers and a lot of doubles. He probably wont stick at SS, but he's likely to land at second or third base. Could be on the move to Richmond soon.

4. Adalberto Mejia - After a hiccup last year and being suspended for the first 50 games this season for taking an illegal weight-loss drug, Mejia is back and "on a mission" from the words of Steve Kline (our AA pitching coach). Similar stuff to Mella; power sinker, curveball and a sweet changeup from the left side. Advanced command and a good feel for pitching at his age. Mid-rotation starter potential.

5. Lucius Fox - Maybe a bit high for just signing today? Possibly. The kid has 5 tool talent though and will be one of the best athletes in our system. Only 18 years old, remains to be seen if he's going to grow more. Could be converted to CF where he'd be a plus defender (throws 97 mph from outfield, incredible arm strength). The Giants haven't had the best luck in the international market recently.

6. Kyle Crick - The fall stops here, but I was real tempted to drop him further, even all the way off. He still has the best pure strikeout stuff in the system, but he is a mess right now. He can't repeat his delivery, which is leading to command issues. Frankly, his delivery isn't all that great to begin with. He is probably going to continue to start the rest of this season (yesterday's appearance out of the Pen was just to get some work in), but his days in the rotation may be numbering. I believe he is headed in that direction, and he could carve out a nice role there, but the Giants can be patient with him. His K numbers are down this year, but that's because guys are just learning to take his pitches. He still generates a high percentage of swings and misses, so don't think his stuff is deteriorating.

7. Mac Williamson - Strong, athletic, corner outfielder. He has put the injuries behind him and is playing everyday. Numbers are solid across the board, but not spectacular. He's cutting his strikeout rate, while improving the walk rate. Still has great raw power. The worry is if he's going to make enough contact. Batting .293 in Richmond was certainly a plus, but his swing can get long and he's prone to hard-stuff in. If he can keep the average above .270, he could easily hit 20-25 homers. He'll have to prove he can cover the inside though, or have the patience to lay off it. Can cover enough ground to play RF in AT&T, and he has the arm strength.

8. Hunter Cole - Athletic, high contact, versatile defender. The Giants simplified his swing to make it more compact and shorter, and it's worked with a .316 BA, .870 OPS across 3 levels. He played 3rd in college, some second in the minors and mostly outfield this year. His arm is good enough to play anywhere. My guess is he could become a Mark DeRosa/Brock Holt type super utility player in an ideal world. He's always had the tools, but they never really showed up in college. The Giants seemed to have worked their magic and are getting the most they can out of him.

9. Clayton Blackburn - Most advance pitcher in the system, perfect body for eating innings. He was slowed by an injury to start the year, and now he's just giving up a lot of hits. At best, he's probably a 4th/5th guy that you can rely on for 150 innings a year.

10. Aramis Garcia - This was a tough one, but I have to give it to one of most important positions in the game. Garcia was touted for his bat when he was drafted and bashed for his defense, but he has made huge strides behind the dish this year in his game calling and throwing to bases. 9 past-balls is still too many, so he's not Posey yet back there. His bat is as advertised. After a slow start, he is really swinging it hot lately. He's showing his plus power (.181 ISO) and good eye (11% BB rate). The average will come around. He was hitting under .200 after April, up to .240 now.

Just missed (in no order): Phil Bickford, Jalen Miller, Mac Marshall, Johneshwy Fargas, Kelby Tomlinson, Chris Stratton, Ty Blach, Okert/Osich/Hall/

I don't like to include relievers in the top 10. I think after the top 3, it could really be jumbled a lot. This recent draft class could throw a wrench into it as well. We have a deep system, and guys like Beede and Fox and Mella and Arroyo could start opening people's eyes about it. They also have a lot of bullets for trade bait.

 

[calsnowskier]

Great list.

Like I said, I will put one together within a week or so. I want to do one with some thought, and not just off the top of my head, like I usually do.

My quick thoughts on your list (and honorable mentions)...

I am not sure what to make of Hunter Cole, yet. I am hesitant to get too excited about guys with zero pedigree who blast onto the scene. However, for ever 4 Brock Bonds, there is a Matt Duffy. Is Cole a Brock Bond or a Matt Duffy?

The Giants are STACKED in the infield. Arroyo is the class, obviously, and Fox adds depth (too early for him to be on my list, but he is certainly near the top of the kids to watch). Others who may or may not be top 10, but who certainly have a decent shot at being AT LEAST a decent util at the MLB level for many years...

Slater
Tomlinson
Moreno
Ryder Jones (2014 2nd rounder)
Arenado
Delfino
Javier

Then we have all the new-comers...

Miller
Vizcaino
Compton
Hinojosa

Absolutely STACKED!

I am not sure what to do with Mac and Crick. Mac is beginning to remind me a bit of Linden/Bowker. I think he may just not be toolsy enough to make it. I will have to see in my analysis if he is still a top-10er. Crick is absolutely imploding this year. I wonder if the Giants will have to just tear him down and work from scratch.

I think Stratton MAY make my top 10. He has had a good year, and been dominating of late. Has he jumped over Blach and Blackburn as next-in-line? Speaking of Blach, no love?

Mejia is also a tough one. GREAT performance since coming back, but that is very SSS. I think his "transgression" can be forgiven. The reports I have read make it pretty clear that he was just a dumb-ass using and OTC he should not have see (not from maliciousness, but out of ignorance). It does lead to a concern over his weight, though.

 

[Stokes1931]

Richmond shut out Harrisburg today, 2-0. Kelvin Marte pitched 8 innings of 2-hit ball, with 3 K's and no walks, and Derek Law pitched a shaky 9th with two hits but three K's. Marte is 27, which is a bit old for AA. He's bounced around quite a bit within the system, beginning last year in AAA Fresno.

DSL Giants pitched a 4-0 shutout over the DSL Rox. Raffi Vizcaino pitched 6.2 innings, 2 hits, 1 walk, 5 K's. He is 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA and is just 19. The DSL Giants were 3-19 with RISP. They start that trend young, eh? Robert Antunez was 2-5 hitting leadoff, with his 12th steal, and is hitting .343

Other games are tonight, while Augusta was postponed due to rain. Rain?!? What is that?

 

[Stokes1931]

I was excited initially about Carbonell. But he has just been terrible. He was awful in the AFL. He hit a tape measure HR early in the schedule, then did nothing. In AA Richmond this year, he was hitting .146, and had 4 walks and 53 K's in 208 AB's. He's back in San Jose, hitting .318 in limited time, but has absolutely no plate discipline, and seems to believe he is a power hitter. The guy is blazing fast, but will not use his speed. Color me disappointed in his performance and his future. He is 24, which is a little old for the Cal League.

 

[Stokes1931]

Chris Stratton with 8 innings of one run ball tonight, as Sac loses to SLC, 7-1, as Cody Hall and the bullpen imploded in the 9th inning. Xavier Avery who was just picked up went 2-4 with the only RBI.

Richmond lost, 5-4.

San Jose lost to Stockton, 5-2. Arroyo went 2-5, Villialona hit his 3rd homer in 2 games. Even Carbonell hit a double, raising his Cal League average to .379. San Jose was 1-9 with RISP.

Augusta lost, 3-0 in 7 innings

S-K won 7-6. Miguel Gomez was 2-4 with 3 RBI, and is hitting .327. S-K committed 5 errors!

AZL Giants lost 9-7. Jalen Miller went 1-4 and is hitting .414 in 12 games. Giants used 8 pitchers tonight.

DSL Giants won 11-2. Prebito Reyes threw 6 shut out innings, lowering his ERA to 2.12. Robinson Medrano is hitting .336 and has 22 RBI in 30 games. DSL Giants in 1st place at 22-8 Jose Patino is only 17, is hitting .250 and has 12 steals in 25 games.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Just got back from the River Cats game.

Cody Hall: Couldn't hit the strike zone to save his life, then once he did it was sweet batting practice for the Caes. Hall's ERA shot up form 2.97 to 4.08.

I was very impressed by Kelby's glove at shortstop. Made an outstanding play diving to his right, robbing a hit. Few innings later, snared a liner to rob another hit on the left side. Also went 1-4 with a walk.

Stratton: Ground balls, ground balls, ground balls. Limited the Bees to a lot of weak contact. Good location and the stat line (from Stokes) well-represented how good he was tonight.

Small note: Jarrett Parker got picked off early in the game. Pitcher threw back to first twice in a row and the third time was the charm. On the third throw over/pick off, Parker kinda slipped going towards second, then trying to go back to first. Just found it interesting to see three consecutive throws back to first before a single pitch was thrown. (There were a lot of pickoff attempts in this game. Darren Ford stole a base much later)

 

[Stokes1931]

Rivercats lost to Reno 5-3. Tomlinson 1-5, Duval 2-4 with his 20th double, Okert with two scoreless innings with 3 K's. Cats were 0-10 with RISP.

Richmond beat Akron 2-1. 22 year old Adalberto Mejia (4-0) pitched 6 scoreless innings, 2 hits, 5 walks, 3 K's. His ERA is 1.21. Hunter Cole 1-3 to lower his average to .357. Jose Casilla with his 2nd save, ERA = 1.67

San Jose won 5-2. Chase Johnson went four innings and allowed one run, he may have a pitch limit, as he threw 86 pitches. He gave up four hits and three walks. Arroyo went hitless, but Carbonell was 2-4 with a double to raise his average to .405. He may have rediscovered his swing and his confidence in San Jose. Perhaps we moved him up too quickly? Tyler Rogers with 2 scoreless innings in relief for the win.

Augusta won 7-3. Johneshwy Fargas went 1-4 to lower his average to .288. Mark Reyes went 6 innings, 8 hits, three runs (2 earned), two walks and 6 K's, for the win, raising his ERA to 1.57. Good looking prospect. Dusten Knight with two scoreless innings and 4 K's. He's 24, a little old for the Sally League, but his ERA is 1.51. In 35 innings he has 45 K's and only 8 walks.

S-K won 7-2. 1B Chase Compton was 2-4, and his average is .343. C Miguel Gomez is hitting .333. Nolan Riggs is a 6' 8" pitcher who started and went 2 innings. In 16.2 innings he has given up 7 hits, 5 walks, and no runs. His ERA is, well, you do the math.

AZL Giants lost 4-3 to the Mariners. Jalen Miller went 1-4 and his average dropped to .394. Pitcher Luis Pino took the loss.

DSL Giants did not play. They are a monster team, going 23-8 with solid pitching and hitting.

 

[SFGRTB]

It's been announced that Kyle Crick has officially been moved to the bullpen for now.

Also, hard-throwing (the man with a 103 mph fastball) Ray Black has moved to the starting rotation.

 

[Stokes1931]

Sacto rained out tonight in Reno.

Richmond wins 5-2. Tyler Beede pitched 7 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, 5 K's, lowers ERA to 3.86. Kyle Crick with 0.2 innings, 3 walks, two K's. Derek Law with save #3, ERA 1.35 in only 6.2 innings.

San Jose continued its brutal season losing to Visalia, 6-2. Arroyo hitless, Ryder 1-4

Augusta postponed due to rain

S-K wins 4-3. Christopher Shaw was 2-4. Jose Vizcaino with his 1st homer. Andrew Leenhouts pitched 5 scoreless innings, two walks, 7 K's, ERA at 1.90 (23 innings). Ryan Halstead 2nd save, 0.00 ERA in 5.1 innings, 6 K's.

AZL Giants lose 3-1. Jordan Johnson 4 innings, 1 run, 4 K's, ERA at 1.80. Mac Marshall (4th round 2015) 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 W, 2 K, 0.00 ERA in 3.1 innings

DSL Giants keep rolling, winning 6-2 to improve to 24-8. Robinson Medrano went 1-5 and stole home, he's hitting .336. Manuel Geraldo hitting .325 but has 13 E in 30 games. Sandro Cabrera started and went 4 scoreless, 2.50 ERA. Luis Amaya (2-0) won in relief, ERA is 1.02. 17.2 IP, 13 H, 13 W, 20K. Alejandro De La Rosa pitched two innings, gave up an unearned run and K'ed 5. In 9.2 IP, he has 17 K and 4 W. He just turned 20.

Some live arms down on the farm.

 

[Stokes1931]

Sacto losing to Reno in the 6th. Tommy Hansen debuted, and it was not a thing of beauty. 4 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 5 W, 2 K. More later.

Richmond lost 2-1 in 13 innings. Good pitching throughout, Jose Casilla lost it with an unearned run in the 13th. Hunter Cole down to .289 after going 0-6

SJ beating Bakersfield 9-4 in the 7th. Villalona with his 4th homer in the last week. Mella started, went 5, 3 hits, gave up 2 runs, 2 walks, struck out 7, ERA 3.29. Tyler Rogers had two scoreless innings and K'ed 3. Arroyo 2-5 with a 2b, Jones 2-4 with a 2b. Carbonell 1-4 lowers his average to .378. Promoted too fast?

Augusta lost 4-3 in 10. Johneshwy Fargas was 1-4 with a Earl Weaver Special. D.J. Snelten went 6 and gave up 1 run, no walks, 10 K's. Carlos Diaz went two scoreless with three K's, ERA is 1.97

S-k tied at 5 in the 7th.

AZL Giants lost 6-2. Kelvin Beltre went 2-2 and is hitting .500. Jose Morel with two scoreless, 0.97 ERA.

Hard to believe but the DSL Giants lost 4-0. Mecky Coronado went 2-4 to hit .414. Melvin Adon went 5 scoreless, gave up one walk and 7 K's. 17 year old Jose Maita pitched 3.2 innings, gave up an unearned run. In 18 innings he's give up 15 hits, 3 walks, and 18 K's.

 

[SFGRTB]

Unbelievable. The game in Reno last night got rained out (it was torrential rain and some lightning here at the Lake). They scheduled a double-header for today. First game just ended, second game STARTS at 10:40 PM!

 

[calsnowskier]

John Manuel (Baseball America) is on KNBR right now. He said that if Fox were in the draft, he would have been a high-2nd rounder. The money got wild just because the international market is so whacked right now.

Only one man's opinion, of course, but certainly a small dose of reality. To place this kid on top-10 lists at this point is being WAY over-zealous.

 

[Stokes1931]

Giants lost 4-1 to the Mutts.

Sacto lost 4-1. Stratton pitched 5 innings and gave up 4 runs. Xavier Avery was 2-4 (.364), Kelby Tomlinson was 2-5 (.327). Giants were 1-8 with RISP and with 11 LOB. Natch.

Richmond lost 3-1 (see an offensive trend?) Kelvin Marte was 7 ip, 8 h, 3 r, 3, bb, 5 k, 2.54 ERA. Not much hitting.

San Jose tied 1-1 going into the 13th. Arroyo 2-5 (.324), Jones 3-5 with a 2B and HR (.290)

Augusta breaks the 1 run rule and wins 9-5. Pat Young pitched 7 innings of 1 ER ball, striking out 9. Aramis Garcia was 3-3 with 2 doubles and 4 RBI (.240).

SK loses 9-7. Jose Vizcaino hit his 2nd HR, went 3-4 and is up to .302

AZL Giants win 2-0. Lots of pitchers worked 1-2 innings.

DSL Giants beat the DSL Mutts 4-2. Raffi Vizcaino went 5 and gave up both runs. Hengerber Medina pitched three innings, one hit, no walks, and 8 K's. He has 5 walks and 25 K's in 18 innings. He is 20, so a bit older than the others in the league.

 

[calsnowskier]

According to BBTR, the Giants and Dodgers are duking it out for Eddy Julio Martinez. Martinez was rated the #1 prospect in this year's class (Fox was #3 and the Dodgers' prize, Yadier Alvarez was #2).

Any dollar the Giants spend in the international market for the rest of the year will incur a 100% tax, though. They already blasted through their allowance with Fox.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

According to BBTR, the Giants and Dodgers are duking it out for Eddy Julio Martinez. Martinez was rated the #1 prospect in this year's class (Fox was #3 and the Dodgers' prize, Yadier Alvarez was #2).

Any dollar the Giants spend in the international market for the rest of the year will incur a 100% tax, though. They already blasted through their allowance with Fox.

(potential) SERIOUS OUTFIELD HELP!. GIVE HIM OUR MONEY

 

[calsnowskier]

(potential) SERIOUS OUTFIELD HELP!. GIVE HIM OUR MONEY

He would still be a few years away, assuming he doesn't flop.

We have a few high-ceiling OF prospects at his age-level (Edie and Cabrera are the highlights, and Cabrera comes with a similar amount of fanfare upon (potential) signing)

 

[Stokes1931]

Thursday:

Sacto won 5-4 in 13 innings. Duval with an EWS, #17. Frandsen hitting .305. Xavier Avery hitting .321. Blackburn went 5.2, 7 hits, 2 runs, 2 BB, 5 K's. Broadway two scoreless (1.17 ERA).

Richmond won 5-1. Matt Lujan pitched six innings with 1 run (0 earned). Law with the scoreless 9th (1.17 ERA) Hunter Cole 1-1 (.302). Squirrels had 14 hits, all singles.

San Jose won 3-0 behind a strong 8 inning performance by Martin Agosta. (3 hits, one walk, 8 K's). In an odd line, Christian Jones pitched a scoreless 9th and had 4 K's. Arroyo 1-2, Jones 1-4, Villalona 2-4 with two RBI (.280). A month ago, I i had left him for dead, but his bat has come around as of late.

Augusta lost 8-6. Aramis Garcia was 2-5 with an EWS in the 1st.

S-K won 9-3. Miguel Gomez (.351) was 2-5. Logan Webb pitched 6 scoreless innings.

S-K won today (Friday) 8-2. C Fernando Pujadas was 2-5 with the game's only homer. Miguel Gomez DH'ed and was 2-5 (.354) Nolan Riggs pitched 5 and gave up his first earned run (ERA 0.42 in 21.2 innings)

AZL Giants DNP

DSL Giants lost 3-1. Manuel Geraldo was 3-4 (.338) with a single and a double and a triple and an RBI. Prebito Reyes gave up two runs in 6 innings (2.27 ERA) Luis Amaya finished with 1.1 innings, 2 K's (0.95 ERA) This kid's stuff is awesome, but his is wild (19 innings, 14 walks, 22 K's)

Today, the DSL Giants won 12-2. C Jesus Tona was 2-4 with a homer (.367) Juan Rodriguez led off and went 2-4 with three runs scored (.345) SS Manuel Geraldo was also 2-4 (.343) Norwith Gudino gave up 1 run in 5 innings. (3.15 ERA) Alejandro De La Rosa gave up one run in 1.2 innings. In 11.2 innings, he's given up 6 hits, 6 walks, and 20 K's! He is 20 and a bit old for the DSL.

 

[calsnowskier]

EWS?