Zips Projections 2013 Pirates

[element1286]

Didn't see this linked anywhere, but the projections seem to show another improvement but not a substantial one.

But I found Vic Black's projection interesting. But the Pitching projections are disappointing overall.

2013 ZiPS Projections ? Pittsburgh Pirates | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[sychmd]

was posted earlier.
we have a lot of question marks.
most of those have a high ceiling potential in there somewhere.
unfortunately, the probability of attaining that ceiling is smaller than any of us would like to admit, and certainly smaller than most of our competitors.

jan, feb, and march is all about thinking/hoping those with a 10% probability of achieving their high end really have a 85% chance and we base it on one objective nugget or a subjective comparison of one trait to someone who actually did hit it with that same trait and assume the whole package/journey will be similar.

i think each of the past 3 years, we see
1. our number of players with higher percentages of probability of higher achievement going up compared to the prior years.
2. we see more players with a higher potential ceiling compared to the previous years group

based on this, we are one of those teams that needs all of its players to have career years to really compete as our ceilings collectively are still lower than most other teams, at least competing teams.
now, what is the probability that we have that many career years? well it gets a bit better every year, but this is what both gives us hope (our probability is rising) but also makes us pessimistic (our probabilities still are lower than we have been led to believe they would be at this point in the GM regime not to mention 20 yrs of the streak).

but hey, to me, right now, it is a lot funner to believe all our guys either have a 100% (cutch, walker, pedro, wandy, hughes, grilli), 85% (marte, jones, martin, burnett, karstens, mcpherson, half the pen) or 70% (tabata, presley, sanchez, barmes, snider, half of pen, morton, locke) of hitting close to potential.
when it doesnt happen, at least i had several happy months of dreaming and playing out the "if only ......" and "just one more .... and ..... "

 

[element1286]

was posted earlier.
we have a lot of question marks.
most of those have a high ceiling potential in there somewhere.
unfortunately, the probability of attaining that ceiling is smaller than any of us would like to admit, and certainly smaller than most of our competitors.

jan, feb, and march is all about thinking/hoping those with a 10% probability of achieving their high end really have a 85% chance and we base it on one objective nugget or a subjective comparison of one trait to someone who actually did hit it with that same trait and assume the whole package/journey will be similar.

i think each of the past 3 years, we see
1. our number of players with higher percentages of probability of higher achievement going up compared to the prior years.
2. we see more players with a higher potential ceiling compared to the previous years group

based on this, we are one of those teams that needs all of its players to have career years to really compete as our ceilings collectively are still lower than most other teams, at least competing teams.
now, what is the probability that we have that many career years? well it gets a bit better every year, but this is what both gives us hope (our probability is rising) but also makes us pessimistic (our probabilities still are lower than we have been led to believe they would be at this point in the GM regime not to mention 20 yrs of the streak).

but hey, to me, right now, it is a lot funner to believe all our guys either have a 100% (cutch, walker, pedro, wandy, hughes, grilli), 85% (marte, jones, martin, burnett, karstens, mcpherson, half the pen) or 70% (tabata, presley, sanchez, barmes, snider, half of pen, morton, locke) of hitting close to potential.
when it doesnt happen, at least i had several happy months of dreaming and playing out the "if only ......" and "just one more .... and ..... "

Great post, sychmd! Couldn't agree more.

 

[grayghost668]

shit I know zip,,,,,,,and he sees another season like last year start out ok hang in for a while and fade at the end,,,and another season without any playoffs



<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ZIP

 

[Etrius24]

Maybe, just maybe a strong start and hanging around until say...August will mean help from down on the farm??? That or They bring in a player to get this team into the post season..

Maybe this is the year that they try to pull something out of a hat and make a charge to the post season by adding a bat and a arm down the stretch.