WAR: Addition by Subtraction

[Windingmywatch]

Over simplified I know ... but consider this:

WAR Contribution Losses from departed starters at positions noted:

CF- Hamilton: +3.4
DH- MY: -2.4
C- Napoli: +1.4
Net Loss: 2.4

WAR Contribution Gain new starters at positions noted:

CF- Gentry: +2.8 (notionally and based on only 269PA)
DH- Berkman: +0.5 (based on only 97 PA)
C- AJ: +2.6
Net Gain: 5.9

 

[scotsman1948]

Over simplified I know ... but consider this:

WAR Contribution Losses from departed starters at positions noted:

CF- Hamilton: +3.4
DH- MY: -2.4
C- Napoli: +1.4
Net Loss: 2.4

WAR Contribution Gain new starters at positions noted:

CF- Gentry: +2.8 (notionally and based on only 269PA)
DH- Berkman: +0.5 (based on only 97 PA)
C- AJ: +2.6
Net Gain: 5.9

way too early to be discussing WAR

 

[jta4437]

Over simplified I know ... but consider this:

WAR Contribution Losses from departed starters at positions noted:

CF- Hamilton: +3.4
DH- MY: -2.4
C- Napoli: +1.4
Net Loss: 2.4

WAR Contribution Gain new starters at positions noted:

CF- Gentry: +2.8 (notionally and based on only 269PA)
DH- Berkman: +0.5 (based on only 97 PA)
C- AJ: +2.6
Net Gain: 5.9

Any discussion involving Gentry needs to be tempered by the fact that Martin will probably face a bulk of the RHPs early on at least

 

[romeo212000]

Any discussion involving Gentry needs to be tempered by the fact that Martin will probably face a bulk of the RHPs early on at least

This. But I do think those numbers will end up working in our favor.

 

[jta4437]

This. But I do think those numbers will end up working in our favor.

As do I, between the 2 I can see a 4+ WAR season, based on defense and baserunning almost by themselves

 

[Windingmywatch]

Any discussion involving Gentry needs to be tempered by the fact that Martin will probably face a bulk of the RHPs early on at least

Would have provided a Gentry/Martin platoon WAR combination if Martin had enough PT ... but Gentry by himself with 2.8 made the point that as a platoon Gentry/Martin can easily replace Hamilton's 3.4.

There are much more serious questions on the corners ... not what the potential WAR will be generated in CF. Will Murphy's 3.2 in 2012 be repeated in 2013 or sag back to 2010's 2.3 or 2011's 0.7? Will Cruz' WAR in 2013 look more like 2010's 3.8, 2011's 1.1 or repeat 2012's 0.1?

Even without knowing Cruz' status or potential for Murphy's standard slow start ... I don't think it is at all out of the question to consider the possibility that Gentry and Martin both deserve to start.

AJ's 2.6 may not be repeated ... but if he puts up something around a 1.0 and Moreland gets untracked finally then that is a significant positive given the composite negative WAR from the 1b position last two years.

The question then will be whether Wash has really got religion and will not be tying the team's performance to veterans like Murphy and Cruz.



(Ford ... WAR agreed is subjective but does provide a value factor that can be compared for players in the same position. My thread is just to simply show that departure of Hamilton, Young and Napoli is not as much a problem given the replacements in hand).

 

[bone3421]

i believe our record will be better than last year,but i am not sure it will be based on players gained/lost

the simple fact is we now play the astros 19 games or so.......with the west having another team we will now play less games against detroit,rays,red sox,etc.....



19 games apiece versus 4 division rivals: 76 total games.
" 6-7 games apiece versus 10 same-league-but-other-division teams: 66 games.
" 20 interleague games.
" Grand total: 162 games.

What that means is that AL West teams will play 76 games within the division, up from 57 a year ago

 

[Windingmywatch]

poor freakn Astros ...

 

[jta4437]

poor freakn Astros ...

I have a feeling thats going to change within the next couple seasons

 

[romeo212000]

I have a feeling thats going to change within the next couple seasons

I think they're farther away than that. Like 3-4 seasons.

 

[Windingmywatch]

I think they're farther away than that. Like 3-4 seasons.

Agree ... pitching is important everywhere but probably even more so in the AL and especially the ALW.

Gonna be some long stretches for HOU of despair and wondering if the move from the NLC to the ALW was a good idea at all.

 

[jta4437]

I think they're farther away than that. Like 3-4 seasons.

I said start to change, they have a few guys close to ML ready now, and its pretty staggered so yeah, depending on development of the young guys, 3 years at the earliest, which is what I was implying anyway

 

[Al Falfa]

Agree ... pitching is important everywhere but probably even more so in the AL and especially the ALW.

Gonna be some long stretches for HOU of despair and wondering if the move from the NLC to the ALW was a good idea at all.

I'm more worried about the other teams in the West. Not winning the division last year could probably be traced back to the dismal record Texas had against Oakland, LAA and Seattle which will be getting fat on Houston this year, too.