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Three Things That Need to Transpire for the Bears to Finish with a Winning Record

richig07

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What do you think they are?

I'll say...

#1 - Stay healthy

Cheap... and can be said for every team. However, with this team's recent history - it has to be said again and at the top of this list. Competing for a post-season spot is just about impossible (for any team) with the injuries we've endured over the past few seasons.

If our best players aren't on the field, it doesn't matter how happy we are with our new coach and off-season.

Most notably - we're leaning extremely heavily on Leonard Floyd. We let McPhee/Young/Houston walk and added only Lynch. Many thought we'd address this position more than we wound up doing. We are REALLY all-in on him to stay out there and have a true breakout year.

#2 - Trubisky with (at least) a 2:1 TD/INT rate. A QB rating in the high 80's to low 90's and 3,500+ passing yards.

None of these are spectacular accomplishments. However, they're solid and realistic markers for his first full season as the Bears starter. They could also be enough for 9 wins if the running game and D are on point. Trubisky also should contribute a nice chunk on the ground too. Although, I don't think anybody here wants to see him become a true "runner" at QB. I want him to be a passer who can "use his legs" and "run if he has to". Always protecting his body first (unless a game is on the line, obviously).

If #1 on this list transpires. I think our D will be good enough, that Trubisky won't have to post a Carson Wentz like breakout season in order for us to compete. He'll just have to be consistently solid.

DISCLAIMER: This doesn't mean I am ruling out a breakout season for Trubs either.

#3 - O-line Stability and Reliability

This is a huge season for Kyle Long. A guy we all took for granted following his first few seasons in the league. Now he's suddenly had a couple of campaigns ravaged by injuries. Leading him to play through many of those injuries - which resulted in inconsistent (sometimes downright poor) play and eventually... You guessed it - a worse/season ending injury to boot. He needs to play all 16 and play them well.

It seems like the plan is to slowly make Daniels our future center and shift Whitehair back to his original position of guard - opposite of Long. This is good, but it's more movement and shifting.

Leno has developed into a very respectable LT. His durability alone makes him a valuable asset. Massie also took some nice steps forward last year. We COULD have upgraded from him, but I like showing faith in his development. From a physical standpoint, he's a monster. It's hard to believe that the tackle positions currently have less question marks than the interior. Which we used to always laud with praise about how "Long/Whitehair/Sitton" could be the best interior trio in football. Well... Long/Daniels/Whitehair still could be a force to be reckon with, but they have a ton to prove.
 

Used 2 B Hu

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You should make the roster more like the Tecmo Bowl roster. I've been playing Chicago lately, and I've been winning games like 63-0, 49-6, 52-3, 28-15 (That was against San Francisco), etc

The only team that gave me a game was Washington, in the divisional playoff round, which is almost unwinnable. Even when I picked that reverse play, it still managed to score on me 3X
 

Beengay fudgepackers

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I agree with the first two, but I think 3 is going to be defense more than oline. The defense was good last year, but we lost a lot of productive pass rushers and will most likely replace them with lesser talents. Fuller is coming off a contract year in which he got a big long contract. Historically speaking, you can expect a down year with him. Our defense was good last year, but I could see it start to collapse this year.
 

richig07

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I agree with the first two, but I think 3 is going to be defense more than oline. The defense was good last year, but we lost a lot of productive pass rushers and will most likely replace them with lesser talents. Fuller is coming off a contract year in which he got a big long contract. Historically speaking, you can expect a down year with him. Our defense was good last year, but I could see it start to collapse this year.

The thing is that those pass rushers are gone because they never (rarely) played. So, I don't think we'll miss them much. Lynch is a drop-off from Willie in terms of what they've both done in this league. However, if he can play 16 games -- that's an upgrade, not a downgrade.

McPhee... I mean, he could make plays when healthy. Which was about 8-10 total games in three seasons. lol. When you take into account that he also played on a snap count very often due to being injured or coming off of injury.

A down year for Fuller from 2017 would still be a good season.

Our defense was good last year, but I could see it start to collapse this year.

I guess that I don't get it. We're so young on that side. Those guys are entering their prime, not exiting (sans Trevathan/Hicks who are in prime years). Then you take into account that we've been very solid DESPITE a hand being tied behind our back (injuries)... and I really, really don't get it. Then you factor in that we have our most universally praised draft pick in... god knows how long - stepping in at ILB.

I don't even see how we've done anything close to peak yet and you think we're over the hill? Okay man...

If they stay healthy - that alone should translate to (at least) an equally productive season. I just don't get the argument. The only thing I could possibly think you're onto. Is that Fuller may have a down year. However, that's nothing but conjecture and not based on anything outside of -- "well, this other guy got a big contract and disappointed". On paper, this D is better entering 2018 than they were during 2017. Not worse.
 

Beengay fudgepackers

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The thing is that those pass rushers are gone because they never (rarely) played. So, I don't think we'll miss them much. Lynch is a drop-off from Willie in terms of what they've both done in this league. However, if he can play 16 games -- that's an upgrade, not a downgrade.

McPhee... I mean, he could make plays when healthy. Which was about 8-10 total games in three seasons. lol. When you take into account that he also played on a snap count very often due to being injured or coming off of injury.

A down year for Fuller from 2017 would still be a good season.

Our defense was good last year, but I could see it start to collapse this year.

I guess that I don't get it. We're so young on that side. Those guys are entering their prime, not exiting (sans Trevathan/Hicks who are in prime years). Then you take into account that we've been very solid DESPITE a hand being tied behind our back (injuries)... and I really, really don't get it. Then you factor in that we have our most universally praised draft pick in... god knows how long - stepping in at ILB.

I don't even see how we've done anything close to peak yet and you think we're over the hill? Okay man...

If they stay healthy - that alone should translate to (at least) an equally productive season. I just don't get the argument. The only thing I could possibly think you're onto. Is that Fuller may have a down year. However, that's nothing but conjecture and not based on anything outside of -- "well, this other guy got a big contract and disappointed". On paper, this D is better entering 2018 than they were during 2017. Not worse.
We will just have to wait and see. I see the defense losing a lot of depth at the pass rush and I doubt our corners live up to their production last year. If they can keep it going and Trubisky plays well, we will win over half our games.

One thing I fully expect from from the defense this year is more injuries though. I don’t trust players like Floyd, Trevathan, Lynch, or even Jackson to make it through the year without missing significant time. We had players that could jump in on the edge last year and produce at an average clip, but I’m not so sure we have that now. Every football team deals with injuries every year, and good teams have depth at positions like these. We do not.
 

nebearsfan70

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You should make the roster more like the Tecmo Bowl roster. I've been playing Chicago lately, and I've been winning games like 63-0, 49-6, 52-3, 28-15 (That was against San Francisco), etc

The only team that gave me a game was Washington, in the divisional playoff round, which is almost unwinnable. Even when I picked that reverse play, it still managed to score on me 3X

If only the Bears could be so good.
 

nebearsfan70

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I hope the Bears are competitive this season, but I think the key game early in the season is the home opener against Seattle.
 

richig07

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I hope the Bears are competitive this season, but I think the key game early in the season is the home opener against Seattle.

Yeah, especially if they lose the open in GB, which most think they will.

If they start 0-2... again. That's rough. Although, they do have Arizona and TB at home right after. If they get one of the first two -- 3-1 isn't an outrageous thought.
 

RP-29

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L-@GB
W-vSEA
L-@ARI
W-vTB
W-@MIA

L-vNE
W-vNYJ
W-@BUF
W-vDET

L-vMIN
L-@DET
W-@NYG
L-vLAR
L-vGB
L-@SF
W-@MIN

This is the way I see the season possibly shaking out for the Bears as a close-to-best-case scenario: 8-8.

  • I really like the Bears beating SEA, TB, NYJ at home and splitting with DET.
  • I'm reasonably comfortable with giving them a good chance to steal away games against MIA, BUF, NYG and splitting with MIN.
  • They can't afford to lay an egg against any of these teams and lose one of these winnable games.
Then...
  1. If the Bears could manage to sweep a divisional opponent, there's that extra win.
  2. If the Bears could manage to steal a tough win against another one of the NFC West teams, there's that extra win.
  3. If the Bears could manage to steal a win from Aaron Rodgers, there's that extra win.

And don't tell anyone I said this, but I kinda hope the Bears finish 2nd in the division this year. DET 3rd & MIN 4th.
 

nebearsfan70

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Yeah, especially if they lose the open in GB, which most think they will.

If they start 0-2... again. That's rough. Although, they do have Arizona and TB at home right after. If they get one of the first two -- 3-1 isn't an outrageous thought.
:suds:
 

richig07

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L-@GB
W-vSEA
L-@ARI
W-vTB
W-@MIA

L-vNE
W-vNYJ
W-@BUF
W-vDET

L-vMIN
L-@DET
W-@NYG
L-vLAR
L-vGB
L-@SF
W-@MIN

This is the way I see the season possibly shaking out for the Bears as a close-to-best-case scenario: 8-8.

  • I really like the Bears beating SEA, TB, NYJ at home and splitting with DET.
  • I'm reasonably comfortable with giving them a good chance to steal away games against MIA, BUF, NYG and splitting with MIN.
  • They can't afford to lay an egg against any of these teams and lose one of these winnable games.
Then...
  1. If the Bears could manage to sweep a divisional opponent, there's that extra win.
  2. If the Bears could manage to steal a tough win against another one of the NFC West teams, there's that extra win.
  3. If the Bears could manage to steal a win from Aaron Rodgers, there's that extra win.

And don't tell anyone I said this, but I kinda hope the Bears finish 2nd in the division this year. DET 3rd & MIN 4th.

Honestly, being 6-4 heading into the final six weeks of the season would make 2018 infinitely more fun than the entire Fox era. Even if they lose out from there -- at least they'd have played some meaningful football.

I'd also flip-flop the potential Minnesota W/L with the road/home situation. We've really played well against them for a long-time at home. Even through some rough years. Hell, even during the Fox era we went 1-2 and lost each of the two on field goals as time expired. Led the 2015 game by 10 with 3 minutes left.

So, maybe 7-4...?
 

Lake Shore Drive

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Win the close games.

win more division games.

stay healthy.
I think this is a simple, yet very concise summary to the main keys of a successful season. Generally speaking, good teams almost always win more close games than lose them when evaluating how the season went. Obviously, if we expect to make it to the offseason, we should probably at worst play .500 ball within the Norris. And please, please, PUUUUULEASE, can we finally string together some seasons where we are not habitually on the bottom rung for games lost due to injuries? Since 2013, no team collectively has lost more players to injuries than have the Bears. Absolutely ridiculous. At some point this has to begin evening out and returning to the mean. Why not start with this year.
 

richig07

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I think this is a simple, yet very concise summary to the main keys of a successful season. Generally speaking, good teams almost always win more close games than lose them when evaluating how the season went. Obviously, if we expect to make it to the offseason, we should probably at worst play .500 ball within the Norris. And please, please, PUUUUULEASE, can we finally string together some seasons where we are not habitually on the bottom rung for games lost due to injuries? Since 2013, no team collectively has lost more players to injuries than have the Bears. Absolutely ridiculous. At some point this has to begin evening out and returning to the mean. Why not start with this year.

I think you can include 2013 into that... no? We lost a massive chunk of our D and were pulling DB's and D-lineman off of the streets. Cutler missed 5 games... etc...
 

beardown07

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I think you can include 2013 into that... no? We lost a massive chunk of our D and were pulling DB's and D-lineman off of the streets. Cutler missed 5 games... etc...


I remember feeling things would've been very different in 2006 if Tommie Harris and Mike Brown were healthy. There's always injuries, it just always seems the timing and the importance of the player with the Bears. Brown and Harris were the unsung spark-plugs of that D.

Man, the way Brown went down that year was shit too, after one of the greatest Bears games of all time(AZ comeback). Freak fucking play en shit.
 

beardown07

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Point being, we have been cursed since in a way. 2010...ugh, don't even get me started.


2011!? That year hurt even more, as I felt that may have been the best team we've had in that span. They were rolling.
 
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