The 2nd third of the season

[Ickey Shuffle]

The reverse psychology worked. I knew they could win.

 

[eburg5000]

Nice win all the way around. I wasn't expecting that. Now I'm going to get greedy and hope for another one tonight.
I was impressed by Schebler last night. When he hits the ball on the sweet part of the bat. He hits the ball as hard as anyone. I don't know if I would want to be the pitcher or 1st baseman if he hit the at them like that.

I wonder if Scooter plays well at 2nd and Cozart comes back if they might keep him there. Although Peraza is not playing terrible.

 

[JohnU]

Cozy won't be out that long. A strained quad just needs rest, not rehab.
Scoots is a nice pickup. I would like to see the Reds make him an offer. I am not as high on Peraza as some others are but he's cheap and a good runner. I think there's room for him and Scoots on this team. The deal is, Dillson Herrera is the guy they want. Got him in the Bruce trade. Maybe a trade ahead?
Yeah, likin' Schebler a lot. Wonder what happens to Winker now. He will have his issues but he's a good contact hitter with average defense.

 

[eburg5000]

I think the Reds have a lot of good options with the everyday line up. I actually think its better than what they had during the playoff years. Way more consistent, and no Patersons or over the hill infielders to contend with.

But the starting pitching stinks, and I don't see any of these rookies stepping it up. except maybe Garrett. and that is a big maybe. I like Adleman, but he's no more than a 4th or 5th starter on most teams. As well as Feldman.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Zack Cozart's injury history is unfortunate for a guy in his walk year. He's played well the past three seasons despite a horrific knee injury. Durability would be the main concern moving forward.

How long will he be out? Could be a short DL stint, but the next question is how long before the right leg flares up again?

Votto had a distal quad strain post knee injury and we all know how long it took him to fully recover. Is Zack Cozart's injury similiar to Joey Votto's? Who knows. The one thing that is known is it has been a chronic problem the past couple months.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It will be interesting to see what Dick Williams chooses to do with the young infield talent and the outfield in general.

Cozart, Peraza, Dilson Herrera, Scooter, Suarez, Senzel, Alfredo Rodriguez, and recently signed Jose Garcia will all enter into the decision making. With the amount of young talent they've acquired, I can't see Williams re-signing Cozart. I think Scooter may very well be the everyday second baseman with Peraza sliding over to SS next season. Dilson Herrera hasn't impressed since becoming a Reds farmhand and is out of options for 2018. September callups will give us a glimpse of what the Reds think about Herrera. Most of the others are a couple years away.

The position this team is really thin at is CF. This was a big year for Hamilton and it's mostly been an offensive disappointment coming off a good 2016 second half. Where do they go from there?

 

[eburg5000]

The position this team is really thin at is CF. This was a big year for Hamilton and it's mostly been an offensive disappointment coming off a good 2016 second half. Where do they go from there?

We might see some unexpected trades for some more ML ready pitching. I think just about anyone can be traded. except Votto. I like most of the Reds starting 8 right now, and would hate to see them traded. but it might happened.

When you only have three starting pitchers and one is a question mark. And another that may not be with the team next year. Plus no help that I can see in the minors. You have to make some trades. We have some talent that might make teams give up better pitching prospects than we have.

 

[JohnU]

Cozy won't be in Red next year unless it's Washington. I think they might entertain shifting Suarez back to SS to give Senzel the 3B job but Senzel still hasn't hit above High A, so who knows.

Dillson doesn't make me yearn for a reincarnation of Phillips and if he's traded, hasta la pasta. Peraza needs to get his head out of his ass. He got the job but this ain't like working for the USDA. Scooter is a guy who will continue to be like Ron Oester and it is hard to keep a guy out of the lineup who does that. I hope his power surge is natural (if you get the drift) but I have heard he is quite religious. Depends on how he views that.

The Cuban kids are always a crap shoot and the teams that sign them rarely get much in the end. Best ones are pitchers, naturally, or the occasional Cespedes.

I can see Cincy swinging a deal for a lefty in the pen or a decent catcher in a Cozart trade. I doubt we will be overwhelmed and the ignorant part of the fan base will wonder how we could unload an All-Star SS for nothing.

This is a roster that is not even close to stable and when it does become stable, it will be too expensive to sustain. The problem is that the GMs of the world are always trying to play the game. They are all convinced that changing personnel all the time makes them smarter. All it does is aggravate the fans. Yeah, trading Frazier and Bruce made sense but the return was "well, we should be good in 3 years," which would be OK if they had won anything the previous 24 years.

But GMs all like to think they have some corner on eccentricity. Watching "Moneyball" doesn't make you smart. It just means you watched a Brad Pitt movie.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Plus no help that I can see in the minors.

Stephenson, Reed, and more recently Garrett have all been disappointing.

On to the second wave of of pitching prospects starting Friday with Luis Castillo. The Reds have also promoted Tyler Mahle to AAA. Both have demonstrated the ability to throw strikes, we'll soon find out if they can get MLB hitters out.

The Reds have promoted a few other prospects of interest as well. Nick Senzel has moved up to AA Pensacola along with second baseman Shed Long. Long has been garnering a lot of attention this season with a breakout year.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Most members posting here are old enough to remember the reserve clause, introduction of the draft, and inevitably free agency. The way GM's operate has evolved quite a bit over the past 50 years.

IMO, the player control roster rules allow teams to get the best years out of players before they reach free agency. By the time most players are eligible for FA, the cost will exceed their production value. Unless a player reaches the MLB at a relatively young age, he's not worth extending, much less giving a long term contract. I haven't seen many long term deals that have brought long term success.

The Reds tried the long term/ extending players route. Trading top prospects for MLB ready pitching was also part of that strategy. It lead to short term success and the mess we're currently enduring.

I say get the best years out of a player while they're young and let them be someone else's problem after that.

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

On to the second wave of of pitching prospects starting Friday with Luis Castillo. The Reds have also promoted Tyler Mahle to AAA. Both have demonstrated the ability to throw strikes, we'll soon find out if they can get MLB hitters out.

Legit hyped. Hopefully he doesn't disappoint like Garret.

 

[JohnU]

Most members posting here are old enough to remember the reserve clause, introduction of the draft, and inevitably free agency. The way GM's operate has evolved quite a bit over the past 50 years.

IMO, the player control roster rules allow teams to get the best years out of players before they reach free agency. By the time most players are eligible for FA, the cost will exceed their production value. Unless a player reaches the MLB at a relatively young age, he's not worth extending, much less giving a long term contract. I haven't seen many long term deals that have brought long term success.

The Reds tried the long term/ extending players route. Trading top prospects for MLB ready pitching was also part of that strategy. It lead to short term success and the mess we're currently enduring.

I say get the best years out of a player while they're young and let them be someone else's problem after that.

It's sort of odd that what goes around, comes around. Players who are after long-term deals will eventually only get them if the teams get something back in return. Now, it's a loss of a draft pick depending on variables. I think the pot will need to be sweetened. Bryce Harper will be the chief cook on that one, I imagine.
Now we are beginning to see some opt-out clauses like Cueto has, so teams that sign these stars need to have something of a plan. If you ain't ready to win, do you want Cueto? In the Reds case, obviously not. And Cueto is showing that he isn't really a Cy Young winner this year anyhow.

I think trying to win a pennant or W.S. is a fool's errand. You might do it once but you won't keep your pitchers more than 3 years anyway.
You get lucky enough in your lifetime for your favorite team to do that once, maybe twice. The BRM is a legend. It will never happen again.
I need to decide how much emotional energy I have left for this sort of thing. Growing old sucks. I already know how "Old Yeller" turned out and I got the inside lane when the wheelchair races start.

 

[JohnU]

Castillo is up for a cup of coffee and a doughnut till Finnegan is ready.
He might get 2 starts but I doubt it.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Stephenson and Reed aren't coming back anytime soon. I'm wondering where the Reds level of patience is with Garrett? It has to be wearing thin.

 

[JohnU]

Stephenson and Reed aren't coming back anytime soon. I'm wondering where the Reds level of patience is with Garrett? It has to be wearing thin.

I think Reed will be back pretty soon despite his numbers. Garrett needs to go back to Louisville.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

When Price was interviewed concerning the Castillo callup he stated Stephenson and Reed wouldn't be back until they were locked in with their command.

I hope the Reds believe in reincarnation, because those two may take a life time to figure it out.

 

[JohnU]

When Price was interviewed concerning the Castillo callup he stated Stephenson and Reed wouldn't be back until they were locked in with their command.

I hope the Reds believe in reincarnation, because those two may take a life time to figure it out.

It is often interesting how such things are interpreted based on the fact that the GM might actually have a different opinion.
I don't think Stephenson is going to make it in the bigs. Reed might.

 

[eburg5000]

Growing old sucks

you said it there!

I don't like bringing up pitchers from minors who aren't ready to start in the big leagues. I believe Stephenson, Reed ,and now Garrett are all shell shocked. They are afraid to throw the ball for strikes and they nibble to much , and that leads to walks. Just a 1 time start every now in then maybe isn't that bad to get a taste of MLB

In all honesty. I'm getting to where I'd rather see a solo homer than a walk, because that walk most of the time is going to score, and normally it's not going to be just 1 run

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Walks don't bother me as much as who they walk. There are hitters that you don't want to beat you and there are hitters that are penciled in as a out in the lineup.

Smart opposing pitchers walk the Joey Votto types with a base open and challenge the Billy Hamilton types.

If you're walking the pitcher and weak hitting utility players, you're not going to be eating the Major League clubhouse buffet for very long.

 

[chico ruiz]

you guys are hitting on a organizational recurring theme. put another way; same shit, just different bloody piles. therefore, i present you with random bullshit, from yours truly, in no particular order.

i've been an interested observer of mlb pitching for decades. after all, if you go to a ballgame, that's primarily what you are watching. it's what distinguishes someone who likes baseball from someone who doesn't. 'too boring,' say the non fans. bottom line: you have to like pitching or baseball will not be enjoyable to watch.

here's a nugget of poop for you: mlb frontline starting pitching - take this for what it’s worth, but some of the best pitchers in baseball last year — arrieta, porcello, derom — as well as wainwright, verlander, cueto and king felix, all presently have era's of over 4.00. it’s been a particularly rough year for the top-of-the-rotation starters. these numbers aren't perfect, but they're close, interesting, and factual. the overall starting pitchers’ era is gradually inching upward from a 22-year low of 3.82 in 2014, to 4.10 in ’15, 4.34 last year and 4.38 presently. not to mention all the starters on the disabled list. whatever the fuck that means? but, there are obvious reasons: shrinking strike zones and ballparks. pitchers can't throw inside anymore. in fact, i can't remember the last time i heard the words 'high & tight' uttered. starters can't rely on heat and sliders alone anymore. those power type pitchers virtually always end up in the bullpen, get overworked, and fade away.

i really never want to jump to conclusions when judging players, because the nature of the game is fickle. it's actually part of the beauty of it. many times when i think i have something sussed out, i come to find i was completely wrong. i actually like that because it means i'm going to learn something new or establish a different viewpoint. but, when a organization has a problem at the r & d level, as price intimated is habitual, you have to believe it. price is right, and i'm glad he said it. maybe he knows he's going to get shit canned. it doesn't matter what the reasons are, it needed to be said. it's a good sign. public acknowledgment of a very serious problem, hopefully followed by problem solving action.

the reds get moody with hudy beer fart shits. that's right - i am indeed implying they are soiling themselves on the farms. forget cow milking, these guys are, by god, pig fucking down there. how's that for some on-field contest imagery? regardless, it's not consuming enough of the basic food groups i suppose. can't be healthy on skyline, hudepohl, and graeters alone. i like pig meat, cheese, sugar, cinnamon, and chocolate as much as the next guy. but, there's a limit. besides, people don't go to the ballpark to load up on concessions, do they?

i understand the dilemma the reds are in. aside from the injuries to the starters, they obtained most of their young starter prospects at the same time. prior to that there really was no system in place that was developing on a year-to-year basis. let me qualify that: not a functioning, even moderately successful, system in terms of pitching. what's most troubling is the reds now have several top shelf prospects, with good stuff that needs to be refined. it's a process guys, and the reds are failing somewhere in the middle stages. what i'm really most interested in is why the prospects are coming to gabp with only 2 pitches. it's become habitual over the last decade. there are a few exceptions, but not many. the ultimate goal is some semblance of consistency, which -first and foremost- requires command. for all price's shortcomings as a mlb manager, i applaud him for calling out the entire organization and it's inability to prepare these pitchers for mlb.

can the lack of money be used as an excuse in this case? is it because the cards, yanks, and others have more money? more money for instructors in milb? i'm not sure that excuse is applicable, because it doesn't explain the rays young starters coming to the trop with 3 pitches, decent command, and consistently being mlb ready.

stephenson baffles. 5 full years in the reds system. i don't believe i have to key another word, do i? i understand the frustration among reds fans. however, i continue to believe that the young pitching will jell mid 2018. but, you have to wonder; why was it straily that showed finnegan how to throw an effective change, and not a coach somewhere in the reds system? how can the reds promote reed, romano, davis, etc etc, and expect them to succeed with exclusively fastball / slider stuff? they won't. mlb hitters will eat them alive. they must have viable off-speed options, for the reasons mentioned above. garrett's start v. dodgers is the perfect example of the effective off-speed 3rd pitch necessity at the mlb level for starters. his off speed stuff was working, and he had good command. now they will try castillo. even though he throws 100mph heat, the reds believe his change is the out pitch.

then, i see an interview with price after garrett's start in tb. he was frustrated with garrett's mechanics and inability to command the strike zone. then he said something very revealing. "in the last 2 - 3 years it's been a huge huge issue for us. command of the strike zone. something we can't have as an organization."

why are these pitchers coming up to mlb, from the reds system, so obviously unprepared? sorry to keep repeating myself. but, as a reds fan, it's been frustrating to hear, "the change-up is something he's going to have to develop." if we heard that when they're at dayton or daytona it would be fine. when we hear them saying it after they've been with the reds for a few months, it's a very serious problem. when the manager of the big club openly acknowledges it, it's an even bigger problem than i thought.

i think garrett is going to get better and better moving forward. he's confident and he had the dodger hitters off-balance for most of the game. he reminds me of a young andy pettitte, in terms of development. about 4 years of milb development with the off-speed stuff becoming stronger near the 5th year. however, the reds haven't had one of their young starters really turn the corner this year. garrett, stephenson, reed, davis, romano, and more haven't shown consistency or the ability to adjust when they don't have their best stuff. which, by the way, you can't do without a 3rd and/or 4th pitch. williams needs to find out why this is happening and correct it, because the reds desperately need a couple of their young pitchers to turn the the corner this year going into 2018. the reds simply can't have a repeat of this year in 2018 if they want to truly compete.

why is a guy from an independent league -who's average fastball is 89mph- effective at the mlb level? he has decent movement and good off speed stuff. he also has an interesting way of changing and holding release points that throws hitters timing off. regardless, the point is that he's effective and has been delivering quality starts. the second point is that he didn't learn that stuff in the reds minor league system. but what the fuck do i know?