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State of the Mariners

PolarVortex

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So as we enter season three of the Dipoto/Servais regime, let's take a quick analysis of the current state of Mariner affairs. I can sum it up in one sentence. The mariners have zero prospects in the hot top 100 and their payroll, for the first time in their 41-year history, is higher than the New York Yankees.

I realize that Dipoto had some tearing down to do before he could build back up, but after two years we have stooped pretty low. A major part of the problem, none of which was Dipoto's doing, is that $84 million of the payroll is tied up in four guys who are close to or past their prime. This is certainly true in the case of Hernandez and Cano, and you could make and argument for Seager and Cruz as well.

Nellie Cruz, the most productive and least expensive of the quartet, will be the first one out the door. He only brings $14.5 million on salary relief while taking 40 homeruns and 100 RBI with him. But at age 37 and soon to be 38, they have to let him walk or trade him in July.

Hernandez leaves after 2019, but not before making $54.7 million over the next two years. If we get 15 wins over the two years, for that $54.7 million, we will be lucky.

Seager is still owed $77.5 million over 4 years. And while he has been a steady producer over his 6+ years as a starter, he never developed into the star quality player that they thought he would be when he originally signed his huge contract extension. To date he has only been in one all star game and only once placed higher than 20th in the MVP vote. Now the lingering question, as he enters his age 30 season, is will he be the type of player who remains effective into his mid 30s or will he start to fade at an earlier age that is more traditional for the average baseball player.

Cano, whose OPS was his lowest in 9 years last year, is still owed $144 million over six years. Now we enter the years in his contract in which his burden on payroll becomes apparent. We all knew, the day he signed, that these days were coming. The payoff was the first 3-4 years, and the gamble failed to produce a playoff team.

So with $84 million tied up in 4 players he did not sign, how is Dipoto supposed to fill out the other 21 spots on the active roster, field a competitive team, and re-build the minor leagues all at the same time? Seems like an insurmountable task. The state of the Mariners is not very good and payroll challenges will continue to have us handicapped for at least this season and next season.
 

SeattleCoug

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So with $84 million tied up in 4 players he did not sign, how is Dipoto supposed to fill out the other 21 spots on the active roster, field a competitive team, and re-build the minor leagues all at the same time? Seems like an insurmountable task. The state of the Mariners is not very good and payroll challenges will continue to have us handicapped for at least this season and next season.

I think a lot of Jack Z's errors, specifically the Cano contract and lack of farm development are part of the reason Dipoto will get at least 3 more years (5 total) to see what he can do. The main problem with this organization that they refuse to change is that there is no "baseball guy" above the GM. No one can really hold the GM accountable so that's why you have the Bavasi's and Jack Z's having the only say in most personnel moves unless its the sign Ichiro, Kuma type things. But they are more concerned about having business guys above the GM rather then personal guys so it is what it is.

Regarding the team, this team really needs to be an active seller when the opportunity presents itself. You aren't catching Houston for 5ish years barring a rash of injuries on their end. Cruz should have been dealt already and you really need to look into trading Seagar as well if things go south and Segura to a lesser extent. I'll be interested to see what they do with Paxton and Zunino. Those are probably the most valuable chips right now and you are getting to the point where you need to extend them or trade them. Haniger will be another interesting one to see what happens.
 

Msfann

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I was happy to see dipoto come in and take over originally, he seemed like he had a plan to rebuild the entire organization.

At first it looked like he was doing that, then he changed over to win now mode and pissed away most of the good prospects we had left. And still didn't win. I believe this organization is worse off now then when he started.

If the new ownership thinks dipoto is making the team better then they are stupid and this team has no hope. angels fans tried to warn us about this reject but then again we all believed Jack was some kinda guru at one point too.
 

seahawksfan234

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Unfortunately I think you really did hit the nail on the head @PolarVortex

This is one of the reasons I haven't ever been so pessimistic about the state of the franchise in years. I do believe that Kyle Seager may have already hit his ceiling, and I was disappointed that it appeared he was a bit heavier in 2017. I don't think we can anticipate any substantial drop-off from him, but I also think it's safe to say that he is unlikely to take a giant leap forward and suddenly become a $19m 3rd baseman.
 

unlvmariners

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My outlook on this organization is pretty crappy for many of the reasons already mentioned above.

Every season this team doesn't go "all in" they always have one foot in and one foot out. Sadly I think there are several players on this current roster that you could build a really good team around but they are only part of the puzzle and we are missing puzzle pieces.

As far as the future goes things don't look to great either. Personally I think rebuild by selling all you have is the best way to "start over" focus on building an organization from the ground up. This org never seems to make a commitment to win or rebuild just stay in the middle somewhere. There have been a lot of bad decisions by previous GM's that make it really difficult for the successor to clean up the mess... Then you get a guy like Dipoto who just napalms the shit out of the prospects (the few we had). I will be honest Dipoto has made some moves I really like and acquired players I think are really good, however with Dipoto and many of his trades he fills one hole by making another one. Time will tell with some of these trades. I think this off season was a great opportunity for the Mariners to take a step towards some sort of success and I believe Dip fell flat on his face, I am still in complete shock Dip didn't add a starter from FA, there were quality guys out there that went for reasonable money, instead we are going to use a rotating bag of shit replacements.
 

wazzu31

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Problem I have, is to me, Jerry is in no way the right guy to be in charge of a rebuild. He sucked in LA at getting young guys and now he has come in here and any time a prospect reaches top 5 in the prospect ratings he trades them. You can blame Jack for Felix and Cano but the failure of this team last year and most likely this year squarely on Jerry.
 

seahawksfan234

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Problem I have, is to me, Jerry is in no way the right guy to be in charge of a rebuild. He sucked in LA at getting young guys and now he has come in here and any time a prospect reaches top 5 in the prospect ratings he trades them. You can blame Jack for Felix and Cano but the failure of this team last year and most likely this year squarely on Jerry.

Really the only bright side is that he delivered us Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger.
 

wazzu31

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Really the only bright side is that he delivered us Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger.

Yeah, he followed Jack's path. Jack made great moves by getting Cliff Lee and Guti then proceeded to set fire to the organization. Jerry, I think, made a great deal, then decided to trade every single decent prospect leaving it a decade long rebuild unless somehow in the next two drafts Jerry hits on 10 plus prospects.
 

SeattleCoug

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Problem I have, is to me, Jerry is in no way the right guy to be in charge of a rebuild. He sucked in LA at getting young guys and now he has come in here and any time a prospect reaches top 5 in the prospect ratings he trades them. You can blame Jack for Felix and Cano but the failure of this team last year and most likely this year squarely on Jerry.

Agree that Jerry hasn't shown he can lead a rebuild but that's probably find for this organization since they don't really ever commit to rebuilds. Instead his dozens of lateral moves and sidegrades can help feed the notion that they are trying to get better.
 

wazzu31

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Agree that Jerry hasn't shown he can lead a rebuild but that's probably find for this organization since they don't really ever commit to rebuilds. Instead his dozens of lateral moves and sidegrades can help feed the notion that they are trying to get better.

Maybe I don't see the big picture, but to me it appears as he has mortgaged the future for now but hasn't put them in a position to win. Maybe none of those prospects turn out but dealing your future for other teams scraps makes little sense for the future health of the organization. GM's hated Jack because he'd back out of deals when they were essentially finalized, GM's love picking up the phone from Jerry. I still love the Segura and Haniger deal but had they had Walker and Marte last year they would have been just as good or better IMO.
 

seattlefan75

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as far as the draft goes we are only evaluating the 2016 and 17 drafts its frustrating that in baseball you can see how your draft picks are until the following season. I wanted to see how Kyle Lewis would play and its unfortunate that he blew out his knee and needed surgery and we will see how Evan White will play this season.

I am a fan of Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura you cant fault jerry for who is still on the payroll if there was a team out there that was willing to trade solid prospects for Cano and take on his contract im sure that would have happened by now
 

wazzu31

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as far as the draft goes we are only evaluating the 2016 and 17 drafts its frustrating that in baseball you can see how your draft picks are until the following season. I wanted to see how Kyle Lewis would play and its unfortunate that he blew out his knee and needed surgery and we will see how Evan White will play this season.

I am a fan of Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura you cant fault jerry for who is still on the payroll if there was a team out there that was willing to trade solid prospects for Cano and take on his contract im sure that would have happened by now

We can only really look at the recent draft classes because Jerry has purged the farm system though, leaving them having to sign Ichiro instead of calling up one of their own AAAA players such as a guy like Powell. Or when a guy like Erasmo Ramirez getting hurt screws up your rotation.

As well as I disagree with Cano and Seager and getting prospects back. If what Jerry and Stanton have stated about the payroll they could've gotten some good prospects back for them depending on how much of the contract they eat. With Felix, it's a different story, even if they eat the entire contract noone with give up anything for a 3rd or 4th starter. He can't say out of one side of his mouth he can't unload the Cano contract but at the same time dealing for Gordon while he gave up much more than the Yelich trade got Miami. Jerry needs to be the President of an organization, not a GM IMO.
 

SeattleCoug

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Wasn’t sure which thread to use for this but man this is bad. Very very bad

 

wazzu31

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Wasn’t sure which thread to use for this but man this is bad. Very very bad


I think he addressed this at the lunch in they had. Everyone around baseball that doesn't agree with him doesn't know what they are talking about. Essentially all baseball stats that aren't in his favor is fakenews. He has had some bad luck along the way but alot head scratching moves that didn't make the team better.

The Haniger/Segura deal still the only real plus deal to me, but dealing Walker started a domino effect that watched Jerry blow up the farm system last year to field a starting staff.
 

JMR

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Lots of things I'm looking forward to seeing this year: Dee Gordon burning up the basepaths, developing as a CFer, and enabling Segura to move to 2nd in the order; Mitch Haniger having a more healthy season and emerging as one of our key longterm pieces; Mike Z coming in with confidence and building off the leap he made last year; Paxton working to establish himself as the staff ace and maybe even put up some Cy Young type numbers; Eddie Diaz pitching with more confidence and experience and emerging as one of the better closers around; Felix out to prove the doubters wrong. And yeah, I think it will be fun to root for Ichiro again; he's just a role player at this point, but I'm pulling for him.

I have no illusions that this team has a realistic chance to overtake Houston, but I think it can be good enough to playing meaningful baseball in September and compete for a WC like it has each of the last 2 years.
 

Podunkparte

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This article was made for this thread: The win-now and win-later teams of the 2018 MLB season

Absolutely incredible that between "Window opening, window closing, should contend, and Nope" on an x/y graph, the M's have their own fucking category.

Screen_Shot_2018_03_27_at_10.24.49_AM.jpg
 

ulmax

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the mariners are doing fine organizationally..there california league champs winning team, well mostly be at
arkansas this year..AA is where most major league teams really start..for example moore made it up but now is still at AAA
so modesto is where i well be looking again this year,with a lot of clinton guys moving up,and they where. not.. that good last year
so the mariners need a good draft?? ..yes they do..and to cover for the trades jerry has made?? yes indeed

here are some guys i have been looking at

LHP logan gilbert..stetson

LHP tim cate ..uconn

RHP= relief..brett conine cal st fullerton
rhp..colton eastman cal st fullerton

catcher.. mason fishback new mexico state

rhp..conner riley..long beach st

you cant git every good pitcher or player out there cuz there are a lot of other teams...but they may have a chance at some of those guys lol
 

MilkSpiller22

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this is easy... the answer is WASHINGTON
 
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