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First the boring stuff:
I think the following guys are locks:
Burnett
McDonald
Karstens
Wandy Rodriguez is also a pretty sure bet but his performance has been disappointing.
I think there's a pretty good chance that Charlie Morton isn't offered a contract. His injury, his inconsistent past, and the fact that we have other guys to look at. Correia is probably gone.
Neil won't go into the season with less than 7 starters (and more likely 8) capable of pitching in the bigs. I think it's safe to say that Locke is on the list. That's only five pitchers.
So to fill out the rotation what does Neil do?
Are we going to count McPherson and/or Justin Wilson toward the seven? I think I'd like to count McPherson but not Wilson. My gut says Wilson ends up in the bullpen.
What about Cole? I think we can start him at AAA but I doubt they give him a shot until at least June - maybe later. Taillon is farther behind.
My conclusion is that I think there's a good reason for Neil to go after a good starting pitcher in free agency this year. Not necessarily a big name but we should definitely look to sign a #2 or #3 type. First of all because Burnett is only under contract for one more season. Second of all because the Pirates don't dare regress in 2013. The fans see a team that remains above .500 into September - we better be able to duplicate the feat next year.
I suggest that Brandon McCarthy would be an incredible addition. Shaun Marcum would be very interesting but I have a feeling that Gavin Floyd is more Neil's speed. That would be minimally acceptable I suppose.
Now as for Cole - my feelings are that he is ready to pitch in the majors now. I think that his stuff is so good that he can afford to just throw it and if he keeps it down in the zone then he'll be successful. Admittedly you want him to be able to win when his stuff isn't as good so I understand the wish to keep him learning in the minors. I'm pretty confident that if you brought him up there'd be a few starts where he was too amped up - he'd get hit pretty hard for a while, but then he'd settle down and start to show his talent.
Now as for Taillon - I am not too disturbed by the results of this season because I keep finding references to a restricted arsenal. Taillon has reportedly been restricted to his four seam for most of the year where it's his two seam that has the better movement. Taillon himself has said that he couldn't get a feel for his curve in the early part of the season and couldn't get a feel for his changeup later on. I think that it's entirely possible that being able to switch between 4 seam and 2 seam is responsible for his recently improved results. If you buy what I'm selling then you can see that he's now got a 3 pitch mix available to him even on the days when one of his pitches isn't working. 3 out of 4 is a lot more useful than 2 out of 3. I think it's possible that Taillon kills it in AA to start the season next year.
The future is bright but I think that it's even brighter if we find a way to sign McCarthy or Marcum. Our 2013 playoff rotation:
McCarthy
Cole
Burnett
Karstens
McDonald or McPherson
2014
McCarthy
Cole
Taillon
Karstens
McDonald or McPherson
I think the following guys are locks:
Burnett
McDonald
Karstens
Wandy Rodriguez is also a pretty sure bet but his performance has been disappointing.
I think there's a pretty good chance that Charlie Morton isn't offered a contract. His injury, his inconsistent past, and the fact that we have other guys to look at. Correia is probably gone.
Neil won't go into the season with less than 7 starters (and more likely 8) capable of pitching in the bigs. I think it's safe to say that Locke is on the list. That's only five pitchers.
So to fill out the rotation what does Neil do?
Are we going to count McPherson and/or Justin Wilson toward the seven? I think I'd like to count McPherson but not Wilson. My gut says Wilson ends up in the bullpen.
What about Cole? I think we can start him at AAA but I doubt they give him a shot until at least June - maybe later. Taillon is farther behind.
My conclusion is that I think there's a good reason for Neil to go after a good starting pitcher in free agency this year. Not necessarily a big name but we should definitely look to sign a #2 or #3 type. First of all because Burnett is only under contract for one more season. Second of all because the Pirates don't dare regress in 2013. The fans see a team that remains above .500 into September - we better be able to duplicate the feat next year.
I suggest that Brandon McCarthy would be an incredible addition. Shaun Marcum would be very interesting but I have a feeling that Gavin Floyd is more Neil's speed. That would be minimally acceptable I suppose.
Now as for Cole - my feelings are that he is ready to pitch in the majors now. I think that his stuff is so good that he can afford to just throw it and if he keeps it down in the zone then he'll be successful. Admittedly you want him to be able to win when his stuff isn't as good so I understand the wish to keep him learning in the minors. I'm pretty confident that if you brought him up there'd be a few starts where he was too amped up - he'd get hit pretty hard for a while, but then he'd settle down and start to show his talent.
Now as for Taillon - I am not too disturbed by the results of this season because I keep finding references to a restricted arsenal. Taillon has reportedly been restricted to his four seam for most of the year where it's his two seam that has the better movement. Taillon himself has said that he couldn't get a feel for his curve in the early part of the season and couldn't get a feel for his changeup later on. I think that it's entirely possible that being able to switch between 4 seam and 2 seam is responsible for his recently improved results. If you buy what I'm selling then you can see that he's now got a 3 pitch mix available to him even on the days when one of his pitches isn't working. 3 out of 4 is a lot more useful than 2 out of 3. I think it's possible that Taillon kills it in AA to start the season next year.
The future is bright but I think that it's even brighter if we find a way to sign McCarthy or Marcum. Our 2013 playoff rotation:
McCarthy
Cole
Burnett
Karstens
McDonald or McPherson
2014
McCarthy
Cole
Taillon
Karstens
McDonald or McPherson
