My PC's back... and so are my previews! (2018 CFB Preview thread, part 1)

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Central Florida

The first preview segment for the American Conference: The Central Florida Golden Knights

Last season: Easily one of the best stories of the 2017 season was Scott Frost and his UCF Knights. I mean, UCF ran through teams like Maryland, Memphis (twice!), and USF en-route to the AAC crown and the Peach Bowl. And when they won it 34-27 over Auburn, they finished 13-0 and had people like Dan Le-Batard wondering why UCF didn't get a sniff at a national title.
And the big reason why UCF went on that run? They're butt-@$$ lucky ('cause they didn't have to play Georgia Tech).

Bad news: Of course, Frost is no longer in Orlando (he's now with Nebraska). Plus, going 13-0 didn't hide the fact that UCF finished 94th in total defense last season, and losing people like Shaquem Griffin and Mike Hughes will NOT help it get better.

Good news: ...Okay, I was just joking about UCF being lucky; in reality they had the #1 scoring offense in the country! And with QB McKenzie Milton returning (alongside his #1 RB Adrian Killins), hopes are high that UCF's offense can continue to move. And there ARE some good players left on defense; they have a good secondary and OLB Titus Davis.

2018 X-factor: New head coach Josh Heupel- Heupel comes in to Orlando off a great turn-around job at Missouri, but you still can't ignore the fact that this is his first head-coaching job. He's great at bringing up offenses, but can he lead the whole squad?

Key games:
9/15 @ North Carolina (Here is Heupel's first big test of his coaching muscles: A trip to an ACC school that's looking for a BIG improvement.)
9/21 vs. Florida Atlantic (Don't scoff at this one! FAU's now got the same goals that UCF has: A conference title and maybe a "New Year's Six" bowl.)
9/29 vs. Pittsburgh (And to wrap up September, the Knights must host Pittsburgh. If UCF leaves September undefeated, they deserve to be in the national title discussion.)
10/13 @ Memphis (Be forewarned, UCF. By this time, Memphis should have a new QB ready for this AAC title game rematch.)
11/23 @ South Florida (And on that note, the AAC East title will pivot on this rivalry game... again.)

Bottom line: There are 2 questions for UCF entering 2018: "How long can they keep their winning streak up?", and "Can Josh Heupel lead UCF back to the AAC title game?". But with McKenzie Milton here in Orlando, the chances for another AAC title for the Knights are very good. They WILL have to bypass USF again, though...

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

East Carolina

Preview segment: The East Carolina Pirates

Last season: An awful 2-10 as ECU fielded the worst defense in the entire country. THE worst.

Bad news: The Pirates had the worst rushing attack in the AAC last year, and that must change. Also, only 3 starters return on that god-awful defense.

Good news: Actually, that might not be a bad thing; maybe some new blood will help that unit get better. QB Reid Herring is new, but he did impress people in the spring. And despite some departures, the WR corps is STILL very strong over in Greenville.

Key games:
9/1 vs. North Carolina A&T (ECU lost to James Madison last season, but to be fair I did see it coming. Could ECU lose to the FCS 2 years in a row? I mean, North Carolina A&T DID go undefeated in 2017.)
10/6 @ Temple (Stunning the Owls in Philly would be a great start for ECU's campaign in the AAC in 2018.)
11/10 @ Tulane (Last year, Tulane escaped Greenville with a 31-24 OT win. ECU needs to return the favor.)

Bottom line: Coach Scottie Montgomery is trying hard to fix ECU's woes, and hopefully his efforts will show up in Year 3. Otherwise, they'll be stuck fighting with UConn to stay out of the AAC East basement... with Scottie on a scorching hot-seat.

 

[Olyduck]

Sun Belt predictions

And here we go with my first round of predictions! Here's how I see the Sun Belt shaking out in 2018:

East Division:
1. Appalachian State (Conference champs)
2. Troy
3. Georgia Southern
4. Georgia State
5. Coastal Carolina

West Division:
1. Arkansas State
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. South Alabama
5. Texas State

Coming up tomorrow, it's Part 1 of the independents (UMass, Liberty, and New Mexico State)!

so the sun belt is going to play a conference championship game with only 10 teams? but also actually have divisions?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

so the sun belt is going to play a conference championship game with only 10 teams? but also actually have divisions?

Looks that way. Sayyy... Can you possibly pitch this idea to the Big 12?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Southern Methodist

Preview segment: The SMU Mustangs

Last season: For the most part, 2017 was good for the Mustangs as they made their first bowl game in 5 years. However they finished with 4 losses in their final 5 games, including a 51-10 loss in their bowl game. Now, the coach that got them to that bowl (Chad Morris) is gone, so we'll see if new head-man Sonny Dykes can keep SMU trending upwards.

Bad news: There's a lack of depth on the O-line and at WR, and even though the defense returns 7 starters it HAS to get better at tackling people.

Good news: With Xavier Jones (a 1,000 yard rusher) and Ke'Mon Freeman at RB, don't be surprised if SMU runs a lot more in 2018. And if the O-line stays healthy, I think it'll be tough to stop.

2018 X-factor: QB Ben Hicks- He was darn good last year as he set the school record for TD passes. But his continued improvement is a must for his team, especially with his favorite target Courtland Sutton now gone.

Key games:
9/1 @ North Texas (A win on the road against a fellow Texas team would be big for SMU, especially with TCU and Michigan on the horizon.)
9/22 vs. Navy (SMU were pretty close to beating some good teams last year, as they fell short against Navy 43-40...)
10/6 @ UCF (...and against the Golden Knights 31-24.)
11/3 vs. Houston (This one is not just another encounter with the in-state Cougars. This is a BIG swing game for SMU's bowl hopes.)

Bottom line: Sonny Dykes is an offensive guru, and the hope is that he can ease the transition shock at SMU so that the Mustangs can keep going. SMU will be fine, but if they want another bowl this season the defense has to get better.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Tulane

Preview segment: The Tulane Green Wave

Last season: Aw, man! SO close to a bowl for Tulane in 2017. They were one foot away, ONE FOOT AWAY, but the Green Wave fell short of their goal as they finish 5-7. But at least coach Willie Fritz had restored some fire into this private New Orleans school.

Good news: QB Jonathan Banks impressed last season, and with a group of talented WR's look for Tulane's passing numbers to shoot up. Oh, and the running game looks OK, too.

Bad news: The D-line is almost all new, and the kicking game is a work-in-progress. Plus, the team must keep Banks healthy, because depth at QB is not great.

Key games:
8/30 vs. Wake Forest (An exciting season opener for the Green Wave to be involved in. Tulane's new defense will surely be tested here.)
10/6 @ Cincinnati (Losing at home by 1 to Cincinnati HAD to hurt for Tulane last year. Had they won that, they wouldn't had NEEDED to win that game at SMU.)
10/20 vs. SMU (And speaking of, here's the anticipated rematch with the Mustangs for Banks and company.)
11/24 vs. Navy (Navy might be fighting for their postseason lives here. So imagine if Tulane can stun them here; they came close last year.)

Bottom line: Is this the year Tulane makes some real headway in the AAC? Jonathon Banks will help in answering that, but to me the D-line is the catalyst. If that performs well, we might see Willie and his boys in a bowl game come December.

 

[Olyduck]

Looks that way. Sayyy... Can you possibly pitch this idea to the Big 12?

i dont think there is an easy way to do divisions and have them balanced. and Oddly if you go east west or north south they come out the same.
East or North: West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Ok State
West or South: Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor

you could drop an imaginary line and go
North as Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State
South West Virginia, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU.

Go ACC route and make up divisions with no geographic logic. i mean with 10 schools you can still play everyone in conference so splitting up rivals doesnt matter much.

call the divisions something that will be made fun of for years like Legends and Leaders.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Navy

Preview segment: The Navy Midshipmen

Last season: If you are (or were) a member of the United State Navy and you have heart problems, then my apologies for the 2017 season. Things started out so great as Navy started 5-0 (with 4 of them close), and then something happened. The close games kept coming, and Navy just couldn't finish them as they went 2-6 the rest of the way (with another loss to Army thrown in).

Good news: I've heard that Navy's offense got too one-dimensional as 2017 wore on with Zac Abey as the starter. So now, Navy is using both Malcolm Perry and Abey at quarterback this season, but I've got a feeling this could work. Plus, the Midshipmen have their usual assortment of strong fullbacks and speedy slotbacks.

Bad news: The O-line lost QUITE a few people in the interior. In all, Navy is losing 15 starters from the 2017 team, including 6 on defense (which will not help Navy with their pass defense).

2018 X-factor: The passing game- That's right, you heard me. Navy will mostly be using Malcolm Perry at QB, and he's been working on his passing skills in the spring.

Key games:
9/8 vs. Memphis (Thanks to a early trip to Hawaii, Navy will be playing 13 games this year. And after returning from the islands, they'll have Memphis waiting for them. This will be an early tone-setter in the AAC West.)
10/6 @ Air Force (Navy won a wild one over the Falcons 48-45 last year. Now the Midshipmen are looking to beat Air Force again... hopefully without the craziness.)
10/20 vs. Houston (The Cougars were one of the teams Navy failed to put away last season.)
10/27 vs. Notre Dame [in San Diego] (Navy has a rough travel schedule in 2018, traveling around 26,500 miles for their away games. And this one's the oddest: Going all the way out to San Diego to host the Irish?! Coach Ken Niumataolo is not happy.)
12/8 vs. Army [in Philadelphia] (After 14 straight victories over Army, Navy had now lost 2 in a row. That 14-13 loss in the snow last December will be something Navy will want to avenge.)

Bottom line: Navy's losing a lot of leadership from the 2017 team, but listen. These struggles are nothing that better discipline, solid defense, and a good QB can't fix. If Malcolm Perry gets things rolling and the defense holds it together, Navy will once again compete in the AAC West. But winning it? I don't know...

 

[ericd7633]

Navy

Preview segment: The Navy Midshipmen

Last season: If you are (or were) a member of the United State Navy and you have heart problems, then my apologies for the 2017 season. Things started out so great as Navy started 5-0 (with 4 of them close), and then something happened. The close games kept coming, and Navy just couldn't finish them as they went 2-6 the rest of the way (with another loss to Army thrown in).

Good news: I've heard that Navy's offense got too one-dimensional as 2017 wore on with Zac Abey as the starter. So now, Navy is using both Malcolm Perry and Abey at quarterback this season, but I've got a feeling this could work. Plus, the Midshipmen have their usual assortment of strong fullbacks and speedy slotbacks.

Bad news: The O-line lost QUITE a few people in the interior. In all, Navy is losing 15 starters from the 2017 team, including 6 on defense (which will not help Navy with their pass defense).

2018 X-factor: The passing game- That's right, you heard me. Navy will mostly be using Malcolm Perry at QB, and he's been working on his passing skills in the spring.

Key games:
9/8 vs. Memphis (Thanks to a early trip to Hawaii, Navy will be playing 13 games this year. And after returning from the islands, they'll have Memphis waiting for them. This will be an early tone-setter in the AAC West.)
10/6 @ Air Force (Navy won a wild one over the Falcons 48-45 last year. Now the Midshipmen are looking to beat Air Force again... hopefully without the craziness.)
10/20 vs. Houston (The Cougars were one of the teams Navy failed to put away last season.)
10/27 vs. Notre Dame [in San Diego] (Navy has a rough travel schedule in 2018, traveling around 26,500 miles for their away games. And this one's the oddest: Going all the way out to San Diego to host the Irish?! Coach Ken Niumataolo is not happy.)
12/8 vs. Army [in Philadelphia] (After 14 straight victories over Army, Navy had now lost 2 in a row. That 14-13 loss in the snow last December will be something Navy will want to avenge.)

Bottom line: Navy's losing a lot of leadership from the 2017 team, but listen. These struggles are nothing that better discipline, solid defense, and a good QB can't fix. If Malcolm Perry gets things rolling and the defense holds it together, Navy will once again compete in the AAC West. But winning it? I don't know...

There's nothing odd about the ND/Navy game being played in San Diego. Navy is the one that announced it's being played there. I'm also not sure why you said the Navy coach isn't happy with this? The administration is extremely excited about the opportunity. San Diego is home to over 35,000 sailors and I think is the 2nd largest Naval Base in the United States. That stadium will be packed.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

There's nothing odd about the ND/Navy game being played in San Diego. Navy is the one that announced it's being played there. I'm also not sure why you said the Navy coach isn't happy with this? The administration is extremely excited about the opportunity. San Diego is home to over 35,000 sailors and I think is the 2nd largest Naval Base in the United States. That stadium will be packed.

Good to know Ken's excited for that San Diego trip. But I also said that Navy's traveling over 26,000 miles for their road games this season. I don't think Ken's too excited about THAT fact.

 

[ericd7633]

Good to know Ken's excited for that San Diego trip. But I also said that Navy's traveling over 26,000 miles for their road games this season. I don't think Ken's too excited about THAT fact.

Well what do you expect when you choose to play at Hawaii and are a member of the AAC in the Northeast, and have to play Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Tulane? I mean hell they played the ND game over in Ireland in 2012.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Houston

Preview segment: The Houston Cougars

Last season: It was another weird season for Houston. A lack of identity on the team meant that in 2017, Houston can look good in beating South Florida and Arizona yet look awful in losses to Tulsa and Tulane.
Now, I won't pile on Houston's school president Renu Khator for her statement on 10-win seasons. However, after the school went 7-5 in 2017 I'll bet she wants a more consistent team this season.

Good news: Everyone is drooling over Outland Trophy winner Ed Oliver, and he'll anchor a darn-good defensive line. Transfers will help fill in any holes left on defense, and I'm optimistic that D'Eriq King will improve his game as the Cougars QB. Plus, Houston only has to leave the state of Texas 3 times this year!

Bad news: RB Duke Catalon shocked the Houston faithful when he quit last winter, and unless he decides to return the running game will be a worry. But the biggest worry is at WR; Steven Dunbar and Linell Bonner have both graduated.

2018 X-factor: New offensive coordinator Kendal Briles- The last time anyone saw him in the state of Texas, Kendal was in the middle of that whole terrible mess at Baylor. And when Houston plucked him away from Florida Atlantic to make him offensive coordinator, the move was roundly criticized by members of the media. We'll see how much of a distraction this is throughout the season.

Key games:
9/8 vs. Arizona (Last year, Houston stunned Arizona 19-16. But this year, we'll see how Houston likes a full 60-minute dose of Khalil Tate.)
9/15 @ Texas Tech (Hey! Texas Tech actually has a DEFENSE this season! Hopefully the Cougar WR's will be ready for it.)
10/4 vs. Tulsa, and 11/15 vs. Tulane (Both of these games are "revenge games" for the Cougars. And if Houston loses either one of them, it'll REALLY hurt their AAC West chances.)
11/23 @ Memphis (But on the positive side, if Houston keeps it together they can take the West division away from Memphis on this "Black Friday" contest.)

Bottom line: In terms of returning talent, Houston should be the favorite in the AAC West. But for the QB's sake, let's hope he gets some help. For the sake of Ed Oliver's NFL Draft stock, let's hope the defense keeps it together. And for the sake of everyone on Houston's campus, let us pray that they'll be no more bad news from Kendal Briles.

 

[WizardHawk]

Well what do you expect when you choose to play at Hawaii and are a member of the AAC in the Northeast, and have to play Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Tulane? I mean hell they played the ND game over in Ireland in 2012.

You both are right.
Obviously Navy is taking advantage of the extra game you get as a reward for traveling to Hawaii, but that travel schedule is brutal.

 

[ericd7633]

You both are right.
Obviously Navy is taking advantage of the extra game you get as a reward for traveling to Hawaii, but that travel schedule is brutal.

Their road schedule is always going to be brutal in even numbered years because of them playing at Air Force and with the ND game being moved around to different parts of the country or even outside of it the last couple of times. 2020 is back in the Northeast so it won't be as bad. But in the original post he was acting as though the Navy coach wasn't happy with the location of the ND game, which I took issue with. Makes more sense to have it there than almost anywhere else in the country.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Cincinnati

Preview segment: The Cincinnati Bearcats

Last season: The first year of the Luke Fickell era didn't go so well as Cincinnati finished 4-8.

Good news: For the time being, Cincinnati's revolving door at quarterback has stopped as Hayden Moore (who wasn't too bad last year) returns for one more year. The D-line has a couple of solid playmakers.

Bad news: A better pass-rush is sorely needed on the Cincy defense, and the O-line has a lack of experience. That's not good news for a running game trying to get better.

2018 X-factor: Recruiting- Luke Fickell and his staff have now hauled in the AAC's top recruiting class for the past 2 years. And Bearcat fans are hoping all of those cool new players can help out next season... or even sooner.

Key games:
9/8 @ Miami-Ohio (That's strange... Cincinnati's visiting Oxford for the 2nd year in a row. Anyway, the Bearcats must do their best to stop Gus Ragland; otherwise the Redhawks will beat Cincy for the first time since 2005.)
9/29 @ UConn (An important tone-setter for Cincinnati in the AAC. If they stumble in East Hartford, if could be another tough season.)
11/10 vs. USF (If the Bearcats break open USF's defensive line, they have a good chance to pull the upset.)
11/23 vs. East Carolina (If all goes well, Cincy will be fighting for bowl eligibility in this game.)

Bottom line: Expect another "wait-and-see" season for the Bearcats, as they'll most likely stay home for bowl season again. But things are looking up for Cincy, so don't dismiss them either.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Memphis

Preview segment: The Memphis Tigers

Last season: So what if Memphis dropped it's final 2 games; the 2017 season was still one of the best that they've ever had. They spent the final 8 weeks of the season in the AP Poll with Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller being a lethal QB-WR combo. And with a few more breaks in the AAC title game, it could have been Memphis in the Peach Bowl, not UCF.
But uh oh! Is the party about to end for the Tigers?

Bad news: Well, QUITE a few things say yes; for one thing both Ferguson and Miller are gone. Plus, questions are surfacing about the D-line and it's ability to get better.

Good news: However, 3 of it's first 4 games are very easy (Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama), so that should help Memphis with finding a QB. And they can lean on their run game while they wait; the O-line is strong and their top 3 rushers return. Plus, the Tigers' special teams are the best in the entire AAC.

2018 X-factor: The defense- Memphis finished 116th last year in total defense, and even with 7 starters returning there are still some concerns. But their top 2 tacklers return, so there IS hope for improvement.

Key games:
9/8 @ Navy (This will be a "must-see" game in Week 2. Navy can use their 2 QB's to great effect; can the Tigers do the same?)
9/28 @ Tulane (Here's hoping that Memphis finds their next big QB by this time, 'cause Tulane would LOVE to take them out in this Friday night game.)
10/13 vs. UCF (As mentioned earlier, this is a rematch of last year's AAC title game... and maybe a preview of this year's.)
11/23 vs. Houston (Last time these 2 met, Memphis won an exciting 42-38 fight. Please give us another game like that, Memphis and Houston. PLEASE!)

Bottom line: Hey! Memphis actually has a shot to repeat as AAC West champs; the schedule's pretty good and a lot of starters are back. They DO have to replace Ferguson and Miller, however.
So in 2018, Memphis will either stand tall and win the West again, or stumble without their star QB and allow someone else to win the division. Either way, I won't be surprised.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Connecticut

Preview segment: The UConn Huskies

Last season: A not-great 3-9 record. And coach Randy Edsall is doing a full rebuild, so don't expect things to improve for the Huskies overnight.

Good news: There are quite a few good players at RB and WR, and the QB situation shouldn't be so worrisome this time around.

Bad news: This team ain't going anywhere until it shores up it's D-line, but a lack of experience may prevent that from happening.

Key games:
8/30 vs. UCF (Good news: The Huskies get a showcase game at home to start off the season! Bad news: It's against the defending AAC champs. Good luck, Randy!)
9/29 vs. Cincinnati (UConn only lost to the Bearcats by 1 point in 2017. Keep plugging away, Huskies!)
11/3 @ Tulsa (A great way to avoid the AAC East basement and improve team morale? Take out the Golden Hurricane in Tulsa.)
11/10 vs. SMU (I heard QB David Pindell had a strong spring and is continuing to improve with his new offensive coordinator. Let's hope all that leads to a good QB duel with Pindell and SMU's Ben Hicks.)

Bottom line: UConn fans might have to wait it out for another year, but they do have a good chance of avoiding the AAC East basement in 2018. The key is for all of those young players to grow up quick.

 

[The Q]

Connecticut

Preview segment: The UConn Huskies

Last season: A not-great 3-9 record. And coach Randy Edsall is doing a full rebuild, so don't expect things to improve for the Huskies overnight.

Good news: There are quite a few good players at RB and WR, and the QB situation shouldn't be so worrisome this time around.

Bad news: This team ain't going anywhere until it shores up it's D-line, but a lack of experience may prevent that from happening.

Key games:
8/30 vs. UCF (Good news: The Huskies get a showcase game at home to start off the season! Bad news: It's against the defending AAC champs. Good luck, Randy!)
9/29 vs. Cincinnati (UConn only lost to the Bearcats by 1 point in 2017. Keep plugging away, Huskies!)
11/3 @ Tulsa (A great way to avoid the AAC East basement and improve team morale? Take out the Golden Hurricane in Tulsa.)
11/10 vs. SMU (I heard QB David Pindell had a strong spring and is continuing to improve with his new offensive coordinator. Let's hope all that leads to a good QB duel with Pindell and SMU's Ben Hicks.)

Bottom line: UConn fans might have to wait it out for another year, but they do have a good chance of avoiding the AAC East basement in 2018. The key is for all of those young players to grow up quick.

I think QB is still a question mark.

Pindell looked bad against Holy Cross last year. While it's a SSS, they actually got some decent QB play.

and not mentioning that the OL is one of the worst in the country doesn't help either.

I'm not very optimistic about this year. RE needs another year or 2 to retrench the talent base.

 

[The Q]

P.S. Thanks for doing this.

I love this stuff. Really appreciate the effort.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Tulsa

Preview segment: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Last season: I don't know how many teams had gone from a 10-win season to a 10-loss season, but I'll bet Tulsa was HUMILIATED to join that fraternity in 2017. You can blame it on bad QB play (thanks to the departure of Dana Evans) or the injury bug (16 players suffered knee injuries) or just straight-up bad luck (Tulsa lost 5 games on the final possession), but it was just a mess.
Worst of all, improvement is not likely this year due to inexperience in a few key areas... just like another school I just talked about.

Good news: There are quite a few good players at RB and WR, and the QB situation shouldn't be so worrisome this time around (Luke Skipper's my favorite to be the starter).

Bad news: This team ain't going anywhere until it shores up it's entire defense.

2018 X-factor: Tulsa's O-line- Actually, UConn and Tulsa both share another problem: Worries about their offensive lines. UConn fans don't sound too optimistic when they're talking about their O-line and it's chance to improve, but Tulsa returns enough experience over there that it might not be a problem. We'll see how much better Tulsa's O-line is for 2018 (and UConn's, for that matter.)

Key games:
9/15 vs. Arkansas State (One of the Sun Belt favorites comes to visit, and it would be a big confidence boost if Tulsa can take them out.)
10/4 @ Houston (Stunning Houston 45-17 was the only highlight for Tulsa during the 2017 season.)
11/10 vs. UConn (A great way to keep morale up in Tulsa this year? Shoving UConn into the AAC East basement.)

Bottom line: All the good vibes Tulsa had going for themselves in 2016 is now completely gone thanks to that awful 2017 season. Now in 2018, coach Philip Montgomery and his staff will try to restore everyone's confidence. The Golden Hurricane won't be in a bowl in 2018, but they definitely won't finish 2-10 this time.