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Max Scherzer and the Hall of Fame

StanMarsh51

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It's possible he'll win his 3rd Cy this year, and everyone other than Clemens with 3+ Cy's and is eligible is in the HOF (Kershaw has 3 Cy's and it's a good bet he'll eventually make it).


Scherzer's an interesting case since he's 33 and has had probably 7 seasons that can be characterized as 'good,' with 5 of those 7 being 'great.'

The question is how much more will he need to do to be a clear HOF choice. He's got 139 career wins, about 1900 innings and 2100 K's. His career WAR (Baseballreference's version) is at 44, wheras the average HOFer is about 70-75 (although a number are in with 55+ WAR).
 

soxfan1468927

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4 more seasons like the last 5, and his JAWS will be around 58, which would be just ahead of Roy Halladay and I think gets him clearly in even if he retired early.

Now I think 3 more seasons like his last 5 and I would vote for him, just don't know if the voters would. But 3 more years like the last 5, and some "less than elite" seasons that get him to 3000 strikeouts and 220-230 wins, and I think he gets in.
 

navamind

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he's (somewhat) quietly putting together a decent case, though right now he's in Cliff Lee territory. Lee was pretty dominant from 08-13, but didn't do much outside of that (save for two average-ish seasons in 05-06). IMO he needs 2-3 more CYA-caliber seasons. He's around 28 WAA right now and has been a 5+ WAR pitcher over the last 5 years (6+ going by BB-Ref)

Not a good trade for Arizona. They got a few solid years and one nice year out of Ian Kennedy, but that isn't remotely close to what Scherzer's done since.
 

tducey

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Interesting case he's had a few good seasons but don't think he's a Hall of Famer just yet, maybe 2-3 more dominant seasons and he'll be 1.
 

DirtDirtDirt

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Howzbout CC?
 

DJ

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2-3 more seasons like he has now I think puts him in.
 

Rock Strongo

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It's possible he'll win his 3rd Cy this year, and everyone other than Clemens with 3+ Cy's and is eligible is in the HOF (Kershaw has 3 Cy's and it's a good bet he'll eventually make it).


Scherzer's an interesting case since he's 33 and has had probably 7 seasons that can be characterized as 'good,' with 5 of those 7 being 'great.'

The question is how much more will he need to do to be a clear HOF choice. He's got 139 career wins, about 1900 innings and 2100 K's. His career WAR (Baseballreference's version) is at 44, wheras the average HOFer is about 70-75 (although a number are in with 55+ WAR).
nope

he needs at least 250 wins (the new 300). he is 111 short.
 

Rock Strongo

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Howzbout CC?
if he gets 250 wins hes in

234 right now

dominated for a long stretch. was once considered the best at his position. 4 top 5 CY finishes (1 win). all those 200+ IP years (some around 250)

then he learned how to pitch.
 

StanMarsh51

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nope

he needs at least 250 wins (the new 300). he is 111 short.


If a pitcher's got enough dominance, they can certainly get in without the HOF milestone wins. Pedro got in with 219 wins, and many believe that Halladay will be voted in (with 203 wins).

If Scherzer's got 3 Cy's (and additional top 5 finishes), that could certainly be enough dominance.
 

Rock Strongo

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If a pitcher's got enough dominance, they can certainly get in without the HOF milestone wins. Pedro got in with 219 wins, and many believe that Halladay will be voted in (with 203 wins).

If Scherzer's got 3 Cy's (and additional top 5 finishes), that could certainly be enough dominance.
uhhh

you cant compare pedro to scherzer...at all...with a straight face. pedro had arguably the best 6-7 year run of any pitcher in modern MLB history.

koufax was the high water mark for short term dominance. now its pedro.
 

Rock Strongo

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pedro from 1997-2003:

118-36
1408 IP
1761 K's
2.20 ERA
CG 34
SHO 11

0.940 WHIP
ERA+ 213

heart of the steroid era...

scherzer from 2011-2017:

118-48
1452 IP
1696 K's
3.17 ERA
CG 8
SHO 4

1.071 WHIP
ERA+ 131

now iof scherzer can do what hes done for another 2-3 years and lower that ERA by a run or so, and that WHIP...
 

StanMarsh51

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uhhh

you cant compare pedro to scherzer...at all...with a straight face. pedro had arguably the best 6-7 year run of any pitcher in modern MLB history.

koufax was the high water mark for short term dominance. now its pedro.




Regardless of how much better Pedro was, it still hurts your argument that a milestone win total is seemingly the most important for HOF qualification. 3 Cys is something done by less than 10 pitcher in its 60ish years.

CC potentially limping his way to winning 16 more games (to get to 250) while being a 5 inning pitcher isn't going to suddenly propel him to HOF status, imo.
 

Rock Strongo

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Regardless of how much better Pedro was, it still hurts your argument that a milestone win total is seemingly the most important for HOF qualification.

CC winning 16 more games (to get to 250) while being a 5 inning pitcher isn't going to suddenly propel him to HOF status, imo.
no, it doesnt hurt anything. i never said 250 or bust, i said 250 is the new 300...for guys who werent legends in their own time.

scherzer isnt nearly as "dominant" as pedro was, or any other guy even with 2 CY's. 4 of the lasy 5 years his ERA was over 2.50. VERY good. pedro? he did that once over his stretch. once. it was 2.89...in montreal... and he finished 2nd in the CY.
 

Rock Strongo

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also, look how many active guys are close to 250 wins?

its the new 300

we will never see anyone sniff 300 again.

if CC gets 250, hes an automatic IMO, with his early dominance and cy young.
 

StanMarsh51

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no, it doesnt hurt anything. i never said 250 or bust, i said 250 is the new 300...for guys who werent legends in their own time.

scherzer isnt nearly as "dominant" as pedro was, or any other guy even with 2 CY's. 4 of the lasy 5 years his ERA was over 2.50. VERY good. pedro? he did that once over his stretch. once. it was 2.89...in montreal... and he finished 2nd in the CY.


Scherzer's no Pedro, but 3 Cy Youngs is something that's been done by less than 10 pitchers in its 60 years, and no pitcher other than Clemens who has 3 Cys and is eligiible isn't in.

Numerous pitchers have 3 Cys and less than 300 wins and are in the HOF. Going by your logic, Jim Palmer wouldn't have made the HOF since he didn't win 300....he did win 3 Cys and was an easy choice.
 

broncosmitty

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also, look how many active guys are close to 250 wins?

its the new 300

we will never see anyone sniff 300 again.

if CC gets 250, hes an automatic IMO, with his early dominance and cy young.


CC, Felix, Verlander, Hamels, Scherzer, Kershaw.

I'm at the point where that's the order I see them being inducted.


Felix and CC's careers are about over, so they're at the front. If Felix hangs on another four-five seasons he's risking his status.
 

Rock Strongo

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Scherzer's no Pedro, but 3 Cy Youngs is something that's been done by less than 10 pitchers in its 60 years, and no pitcher other than Clemens who has 3 Cys and is eligiible isn't in.

Numerous pitchers have 3 Cys but not 300 wins and are in the HOF.
scherzer has 2.

he hasnt won 3.

like i said, do it another few years. i can see kershaw winning it this year too. 16-3. higher ERA+. similar IP. first place team (still). robbie ray in AZ. quite a few deserving guys. grienke. martinez in st louis (on the cusp).
 

StanMarsh51

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scherzer has 2.

he hasnt won 3.

like i said, do it another few years. i can see kershaw winning it this year too. 16-3. higher ERA+. similar IP. first place team (still). robbie ray in AZ. quite a few deserving guys. grienke. martinez in st louis (on the cusp).


The point of my thread (which is mentioned in the first post) is that if he wins his 3rd this year, how will his HOF chances be affected.

Kershaw's lack of innings (151) will likely hurt him, especially if the Dodgers baby him in the final 3 weeks to keep him healthy/rested for the playoffs.


Robbie Ray will be lucky to hit 170 innings (when was the last time a starter with that few innings won). Greinke's numbers are far worse, and Martinez has an ERA a full run higher than Scherzer (seriously?)



Scherzer is the frontrunner right now.
 

broncosmitty

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The point of my thread (which is mentioned in the first post) is that if he wins his 3rd this year, how will his HOF chances be affected.

Kershaw's lack of innings (151) will likely hurt him, especially if the Dodgers baby him in the final 3 weeks to keep him healthy/rested for the playoffs.


Robbie Ray will be lucky to hit 170 innings (when was the last time a starter with that few innings won). Greinke's numbers are far worse, and Martinez has an ERA a full run higher than Scherzer (seriously?)



Scherzer is the frontrunner right now.
Scherzer logged a lot of numbers early in his career. Which really helps him now that he's peaking in his thirties.

A guy like Corey Kluber doesn't have that. (I'm not really certain I view Max as a better pitcher tbh.)

But it's just recently for me(the second half of this season) that I've swung to the side of him likely being a HOFer.
 

Calm

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if he gets 250 wins hes in

234 right now

dominated for a long stretch. was once considered the best at his position. 4 top 5 CY finishes (1 win). all those 200+ IP years (some around 250)

then he learned how to pitch.

CC?

:lebowski2:
 
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