gregory polanco

[Illinest]

Save us.

With free agency seemingly winding down into table scrap time and the Pirates having already punted on a rare opportunity to put together a big-time roster without having taken on an equivalently lengthy financial commitment i figure it's a good time to put on my best happy face and pray that the farm system can fill in the holes that ownership did not fill.

So - Polanco. Pretty studly so far. Unlike the way it was with Marte there haven't been any serious red flags about his performances, and Marte seems to be working out pretty well so far. That makes me feel optimistic. I also think it's great that Polanco has destroyed the winter leagues and has been getting all kinds of positive attention. Polanco doesn't appear to have any holes in his game aside from the possibility that his longish swing may have trouble catching up with inside heat. Aside from that he's young, makes good contact, has shown some power, speed, arm, defense, and doesn't strike out particularly much. I have been thinking about what a nice fit he might be for the #2 spot in the lineup.

He could make me feel okay about missing out on a known commodity. I hope he's as good as i'm imagining he could be.

 

[element1286]

Nothing to add, besides I hope he works out, you covered all the bases, and I don't think he comes up till June. The Pirates will sign a lower level FA to start the season and see if they can extract some value.

 

[thecrow124]

I think we go with Snyder, Tabata, Decker in RF and Sanchez and Lambo at first base.

I think Polanco has a shot to he up by June/July, but I also think there is a chance that he spends the entire year in the minors. I don't think it is a guarantee that he starts the year at Indy, he could go back to Altoona. I would say the chances are good that he starts at Indy, just not guaranteed.

The one thing I am not sure about is you say longish swing, I don't see it as being long, I do see a hitch as he goes into the swing, but once his motion goes forward, it is a very quick path to the ball with a long followthrough. The only way I see it being long is on pitches low and away that are slow, in which case he slows the bat down and kind of slaps at the pitch, but again, I would say that that is normal for a good hitter. That is just my opinion though.

 

[Illinest]

I think we go with Snyder, Tabata, Decker in RF and Sanchez and Lambo at first base.

I think Polanco has a shot to he up by June/July, but I also think there is a chance that he spends the entire year in the minors. I don't think it is a guarantee that he starts the year at Indy, he could go back to Altoona. I would say the chances are good that he starts at Indy, just not guaranteed.

The one thing I am not sure about is you say longish swing, I don't see it as being long, I do see a hitch as he goes into the swing, but once his motion goes forward, it is a very quick path to the ball with a long followthrough. The only way I see it being long is on pitches low and away that are slow, in which case he slows the bat down and kind of slaps at the pitch, but again, I would say that that is normal for a good hitter. That is just my opinion though.

Let's keep the focus on players who don't suck. Polanco seems to have a pretty good chance to be that kind of guy.

I'd like to discuss a broader topic for a moment: Player development.

I have never been satisfied with the "level by level" approach.

I'll start my argument with an obvious statement - "everybody is different".
I know that there are certain physical limitations that could never reasonably be overcome. For example there's probably not any 10 year-olds anywhere (not even Mike Trout) who could hit Clayton Kershaw. That said - there are some people who reach full physical maturity at a young age and there are others who don't get there until much later. I would guess that most high school draft picks are not finished growing yet. On the other hand I would guess that after 3 years of college most of the players are finished growing, or at least they ought to be pretty darn close.
There's no way that us fans can judge stuff like this, (whether a player is done growing or not) and I feel confident saying that because it seems as if even the scouts don't have it entirely figured out. We can't know this.

But physical development is just one part of the story, right? There's also skill development. Skill development is something that the scouts can judge. It's the eye test. Does the SS have good technique? Does the outfielder hit the cutoff man on his throws? This accumulates all of the 'taught' skills.

Then there's experience. It's knowing how often a pitcher who falls behind in the count will throw a fastball on 0-2. It's also knowing how to take advantage of those facts.

If you take these three, then you can get some sort of understanding about players like Garrett Jones. He seems to be one of those guys who needed to complete the development. By the time he had his break (with us) he'd been around the block a few times. His physical development and his learned skills were good enough that if he combined them together with the experience of having been in the minors for so long that he'd be able to take advantage of a chance to play in the majors.

But - the margins can be thin. Garrett Jones didn't continue to get better. He wasn't a late blooming David Ortiz after all. He was a physically limited player who learned how to be successful for a few years, but now he's past his peak physical condition and it remains to be seen if he'll be able to compensate for his losses by utilizing his ever-increasing stock of experience.

Starlin Castro on the other hand is a different sort of player. He's athletic. He's not making it on acquired skills or experience. He's just got a better body for sports. Now a guy like this might actually have great skills and he will certainly gain experience, but the main thing that gives this guy an edge is the fact that his body is so exceptional.
What happens when a guy like Starlin Castro starts to get a little older? A lot of the times they don't know how to cope with it. Usually (in my view) they eventually figure it out. They didn't need to lean on skills and experience before but they do accumulate these things and eventually incorporate those lessons to compensate for the speed and strength that was lost.

But there are other players who go beyond both of these archetypes, and these are the sort who seemingly never fall down. Your Ken Griffey Jr.s and such. These are the players who have a quality that is usually said to be "hard to quantify" or "hard to define", but I think that we can define the quality by creatively changing the scope of our consideration.
This is the sort of player who you might say has an "intuition" about what needs done, or a never-ending creativity that manifests in them when it's time for them to rise up to meet the occasion. These players are skilled, athletic and experienced beyond their years but more than anything they're the sort who just succeed. Now you might think that I'm talking about Andrew McCutchen, and that's true, but I'm also talking about certain less visible players. Guys who aren't necessarily the most talented or skilled but still contribute, still improve the record of every team that they play for just by virtue of the fact that they're on it. These are the winners. Now I'm going to step outside of the cliches for a moment and I'm going to suggest that this is yet another scale, with shades of gray resting in between the values that lie at either extreme. In short, some guys are more "winner-ish" than others.


Now we finally come back to Polanco, and I would argue that he's going to be ready and that it would be wrong of us to hold him back, because I believe he has already demonstrated signs that he might be one of those winning players. He was originally signed as a pitcher and he had some bad performances in the years following his conversion to position player, but he figured it out at age 20 and he started to wreck the ball. He has continued to wreck the ball and he has contributed to some extent at every promotion. His "bad" months are never particularly bad and that gives me the sense that he's not getting overwhelmed or overmatched. His strikeout percentages have been improving as have his walk rates, and his successful stint in AA was potentially even more successful than we know if you take a glance at the uncharacteristically low BABIP that he accumulated. I am feeling great about Polanco at least in part because he has seemed so "winner-ish" throughout his progression. When Alen Hanson was learning to cope with better pitchers, Polanco was learning to maximize his production. There's a difference there and we would be wise to take notice of facts such as that one.

Now if Polanco is held back in 2014 it won't be because of the body, because he looks just like Daryl Strawberry to me. It won't be skills because he's an outfielder and his arm and legs are more important anyways. (as a former outfielder myself, it's not all that hard!) It won't be experience either, because he seems to be the sort of player who owes the least amount of his success (or potential) to the presence or absence of experience.
No - the only way I see Polanco failing to join us in 2014 is if he suddenly has a failure in his most intangible trait. Since he hasn't come up short in any of the seasons prior to this one I ecpect him to continue to succeed, and his success is the precursor to his flight to Pittsburgh.

 

[Etrius24]

Nice write up...

Unfortunately because of the economics of the game and the size of the market in Pittsburgh whether players are ready or not, regardless of their skill set and experience we are seeing the trend emerge clear as it can be.... This regime will not call up top prospects before the middle of the season and start their arbitration clocks. Like it or hate it... It is about holding onto the prospects as long as humanly possible. I see why they do it.. I understand it... It is one of the things small market teams must accept.

 

[Etrius24]

For me the real tough questions begin when you consider if not calling up a top prospect until June will keep the Pirates from making the post season.

Say they miss the post season by a game or two... and they have some pitcher in AAA lighting it up all spring and into summer. There is an argument to be made that not having that kid start 10 games for the Bucs cost them a post season berth. We could switch this to a fireballing closer if the team was having troubles in the bullpen... or a outfielder like Polanco if he hits the cover off the ball and our third fourth and fifth outfielders all hit like an 80 year old woman.

That is when we will have to ask the really tough questions pitting another year of control for a prospect against maybe sneaking back into the post season.

 

[Etrius24]

Sorry to get sidetracked a little bit there Illinest... Reading your post made me remember some thoughts I have had about prospects in this organization over the past couple of seasons.

 

[evolver115]

Polanco is not in today's starting lineup with Indy.....

 

[thecrow124]

Polanco is not in today's starting lineup with Indy.....

However, Lambo was and he hit his first homerun of the year, collected2 hits and is now hitting at a .354 clip. It is safe to say that he would not be the savior at first base, but out of everyone in our system that plays first base I would say he has the best chance of not completely sucking. However, now that we are saddled with Ike Davis for the next 3 years, it is quite possible that Lambo either never gets a chance or gets traded.

 

[Illinest]

More like lambo never gets a third chance.

That's not to say that he shouldn't. He absolutely should get another shot.
All the same I wouldn't expect a whole lot. He's potentially as good as a guy like Snider or Davis. I would be surprised if he becomes a productive every day player.

 

[thecrow124]

More like lambo never gets a third chance.

That's not to say that he shouldn't. He absolutely should get another shot.
All the same I wouldn't expect a whole lot. He's potentially as good as a guy like Snider or Davis. I would be surprised if he becomes a productive every day player.

I actually don't expect much either, but I do believe he could give us better production than Sanchez, Davis, or the two combined, which isn't saying much. Worst case scenario, he is actually worse than those two, but at least he is young enough that there could be some hope that he figured something out.

 

[element1286]

Lambo is in a position where he will have to play his way into the lineup. I don't think he has done enough to warrant a guaranteed spot, if he does well, that makes Ike Davis expendable.

 

[thecrow124]

Lambo is in a position where he will have to play his way into the lineup. I don't think he has done enough to warrant a guaranteed spot, if he does well, that makes Ike Davis expendable.

Ike Davis in the line-up every is looking like it is going to make Ike Davis expendable. He seriously needs to overhaul his entire swing, it doesn't look good at all. His hands are all over the place, making it very difficult to get a proper swing path to the ball. It is so bad that when he drops his hands to go into his swing he removes them from a good hitting position.

While I am on the subject, however obscure the link is, there are a lot of people not hitting at the major league level. This is not new, as it happens every year, the difference is in watch them play I have almost no confidence that any of them will be able to come out of this and have a decent season. It is just ugly. I realize some will, but our corner infielders instill zero confidence in me that either will be able to hit even .200 this year.

 

[steelparrot]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source...egory-polanco-a-long-term-deal-232433631.html

Apparently, we offered him a 10 year deal recently.

 

[Illinest]

I guess at least their heart was in the right place? Not convinced that the rumored dollar amounts are anywhere near as much as he might stand to make.

 

[thecrow124]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source...egory-polanco-a-long-term-deal-232433631.html

Apparently, we offered him a 10 year deal recently.

$25 million for the first 7 years is about right, just depends on what the 3 option years were priced at, if Polanco rejected it I would guess it was not very high. I would say that if they offered him $15 million per year for each one that would be close to getting a deal done, that would be $70 million for 10 years and he could still get another deal after that.

 

[Darkstone42]

$25 million for the first 7 years is about right, just depends on what the 3 option years were priced at, if Polanco rejected it I would guess it was not very high. I would say that if they offered him $15 million per year for each one that would be close to getting a deal done, that would be $70 million for 10 years and he could still get another deal after that.

I would be quite alright with that contract, especially since it eliminates the Super Two consideration and gets him up here early.

 

[Illinest]

Do I need to point out that you don't offer a contract like that to a guy who "still has things to work on"?

"While we're excited about where he's going, we don't feel he's ready to come up here and help this team win major league games and thrive."
-Neil

also
"Our challenge is to not get too excited, too soon, and to put him in a position he’s not ready for. "

Dang. The fine line between "ready to debut" and "ready to sign a 10 year contract" must be so thin that you couldn't cut it with a razor.

 

[element1286]

$25 million for the first 7 years is about right, just depends on what the 3 option years were priced at, if Polanco rejected it I would guess it was not very high. I would say that if they offered him $15 million per year for each one that would be close to getting a deal done, that would be $70 million for 10 years and he could still get another deal after that.

I heard option years took it up to 50 million total.

 

[thecrow124]

I heard option years took it up to 50 million total.

$50 million is probably a bit low for 10 total years. However it probably isn't an unreasonable starting point.