Film Review, Ratings/Rankings, and Statistics Thread

[MHSL82]

Rather than starting a new thread for each player or stretch of the season, I'm putting what I find in here.

Starting with what others already provided:

Kannsas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry is playing really well. Really, really well. Pro Football Focus currently rates Berry, who is barely a year removed from his cancer diagnosis, as the No. 1 safety in the NFL.

Let me repeat that: Eric Berry is the No. 1 rated safety in the NFL by Pro Football Focus.
How amazing is that? Berry has just looked more active this year compared to previous years. I haven't done a full breakdown of where he plays this year vs. last but it feels like he's playing more coverage rather than sitting at the line of scrimmage like he has done in the past.
If Berry doesn't win comeback player of the year they should stop giving out the award.

Here are the Chiefs 2016 free agents - Joel Thorman

All of the Chiefs safeties were ranked like this, per PFF:

1. Eric Berry
13. Husain Abullah
52. Ron Parker
63. Tyvon Branch

I recall so many thinking he was easily replaceable.

 

[MHSL82]

Film Review: Alex Smith Playing His Best Football Since Joining the Chiefs: Alex is playing his best football as a Chief

Not saying he's great, a changed man, or a gunslinger, but this one is more than just avoiding interceptions.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Some ranking systems I have found for the Chiefs with a quick search:

The two most widely used systems in PFF and DVOA are listed below. I'll use wDVOA since it accounts for things such as schedule, weather, etc.

PFF: 13th
wDVOA: 2nd

Along with some others

Sagarin: 7th
SRS: 3rd
CHFF; QS Power Ranking: 5th
ELO: 7th

None of these are exactly jokes, so it's interesting to see the Chiefs do so well by most accounts. PFF has been, by far, the most conservative ranking the Chiefs the whole season from what I can tell.

But here's the ESPN ranking just for a more eyetest based ranking:

ESPN: 9th
FPI has the Chiefs at 7th, fwiw.

The Chiefs have won six in a row and they've been winning decisively. Their average margin of victory this season is an NFL-high 17.1 points.

 

[MHSL82]

Here are some numbers for the offensive line this season (through 12 games):

Jeff Allen (RT) - 6 starts (weeks 7, 8, 10-13)
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (RG) - 9 starts (weeks 1-3, 7, 8, 10-13)
Eric Fisher (LT) - 10 starts (weeks 3-8, 10-13)
Zach Fulton (LG) - 4 starts (weeks 4-6, 13)
Ben Grubbs (LG) - 7 starts (weeks 1-7)
Mitch Morse © - 11 starts (weeks 1-8, 10, 11)
Jah Reid (RT) - 7 starts (weeks 1, 2, 8, 10-13)
Donald Stephenson (RT) - 6 starts (weeks 1-6)

Not all of these players finished the games they started, but the the Chiefs' record by starts is interesting:

Jeff Allen (6-0)
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (7-2)
Eric Fisher (6-4)
Zach Fulton (1-3)
Ben Grubbs (2-5)
Mitch Morse (6-5)
Jah Reid (6-1)
Donald Stephenson (1-5)

Obviously, some of these players you want on the field, and some you don't. While some of them played against tougher competition, the swing between records in starts seemed unusually high. I was excited about the signing of Ben Grubbs, but is it possible that he really was a bad fit? As for Jah Reid, the tape shows that he hasn't been good, but has he been good enough, winning enough plays while occasionally getting beat in ways that are damaging but not devastating? As for Donald Stephenson, does it say something that he hasn't started a game since week 6, and that currently he is the second next man up?

Tomorrow's starting lineup projects to be: Eric Fisher, Jeff Allen, Mitch Morse, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, and Jah Reid. If Allen can't start (or can't stay on the field), Zach Fulton seems to be the next man up, although the possibility exists that the Chiefs may go directly to the recently activated Jarrod Pughsley.

 

[MHSL82]

Anatomy of the Smith-Wilson TD: Good pre-snap read, audible, post-snap read, throw, catch, and speed/balance: Alex to Albert: Anatomy of a Chiefs TD

 

[MHSL82]

Quietly, Alex Smith is having his best season

This doesn't include the better statistical 2012 of 70.2% and 8.0 YPA and 104.1 QB rating, but I think in quality, this year is better.

 

[eaglesnut]

Why is your defense so good at shutting down opposing TEs?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Why is your defense so good at shutting down opposing TEs?

Over the course of the past 3 years? Some of it is probably scheme where they are a little DB happy- albeit at the cost of run defense at times. In terms of personnel, it's mostly one player- Eric Berry. This has generally been the conclusion I have had when attending games personally, looking at the stats, etc. PFF would tend to agree with me I think. There's enough range and athletic ability where Berry can probably erase most generic TE's like Martellus Bennett. Some of it also might be some teams trying to use their TE's to chip Houston and/or Hali which means they aren't going to be attempting something like Jimmy Graham would be doing. There are a lot of explanations that pop into my head from a statistical perspective on this.

 

[eaglesnut]

Over the course of the past 3 years? Some of it is probably scheme where they are a little DB happy- albeit at the cost of run defense at times. In terms of personnel, it's mostly one player- Eric Berry. This has generally been the conclusion I have had when attending games personally, looking at the stats, etc. PFF would tend to agree with me I think. There's enough range and athletic ability where Berry can probably erase most generic TE's like Martellus Bennett. Some of it also might be some teams trying to use their TE's to chip Houston and/or Hali which means they aren't going to be attempting something like Jimmy Graham would be doing. There are a lot of explanations that pop into my head from a statistical perspective on this.

Thanks. I was guessing Berry was a major reason, but I haven't caught much of Chiefs' games this year. I'm pulling for you guys/Andy Reid, but I'm worried about starting Barnidge in my fantasy championship who's been a stud all year. I'd love to see Berry totally shutdown Gronk in a playoff matchup with the Patriots. Good luck!