Dynasty value risers, fallers - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

Players rising or falling in dynasty formats after NFL free agency - Fantasy Football
By Matt Williamson

When playing fantasy football in a dynasty format, it is imperative to understand that values of players can fluctuate to an extreme degree. Of course this is true week to week while games are being played, but this time of year (up through the draft) is when NFL teams tell all of us what they think of their players.

Maybe more so this offseason than any in recent memory, dynasty player values have shifted thanks to all the signings and trades. As a dynasty owner, you must be on top of these changes and what they mean for those players on your roster, as well as for those you should look to acquire.

Here are several big-name players whose values changed significantly based on offseason moves:


Players who gained value

Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

You can make the argument that there was nowhere to go but up for Bradford. I've already picked up Bradford in two of my dynasty leagues since the end of the regular season, for nothing. But Bradford's value spiked probably more than any other player in fantasy football during the past few weeks. There is still some chatter that Bradford could wind up in Tennessee in a deal that lands Chip Kelly his former Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, but if Bradford stays in Philadelphia he has major value.

The Eagles are a run-first offense in general, but they run a ton of plays per game. They also accumulate a lot of first downs and points. That leads to strong fantasy numbers for the quarterback. Bradford will do little as a runner, even in this system, but he is highly adept from his college days at running a high-tempo attack, and has rare arm talent.

The Eagles are currently short on wide receivers, but it wouldn't be a shock if the Eagles used their first-round pick on someone such as Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong. The Eagles also have rising playmakers Josh Huff and Zach Ertz on the roster. Bradford has an extensive injury history, but few quarterbacks have had less around them in terms of an offensive line, running game and playmaking receivers than Bradford did in St. Louis.

Shane Vereen, RB, New York Giants

Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are average NFL running backs, with Jennings possessing an extensive injury history and Williams being a power runner with just average feet who offers absolutely nothing as a receiver. Vereen, on the other hand, is among the best receiving backs in the game today, and as a runner he has more big-play ability than anyone else in New York's stable of backs, averaging 4.2 yards per carry during his career.

This isn't to suggest that Vereen is going to be the full-time workhorse for the Giants, but his workload is bound to increase from what he did in New England. Also, the Giants' offense is structured like the one in Green Bay, which means they will play out of three-wide receiver sets as often as any team in the league, with Eli Manning operating frequently out of the shotgun. This favors Vereen quite a bit, as does the fact that with Jennings and Williams on board it is unlikely New York will use a high draft pick on a running back.

Having Odell Beckham Jr. on the same field is good for everyone's fantasy stock, as he (and the returning Victor Cruz) can draw defensive attention away from the running game. Lastly, no team in the league has had such a rash of horrible injury luck with its offensive line during the past two seasons. This is bound to correct itself, and it would be quite surprising if the Giants didn't use an early pick on another big guy up front. Vereen is now the Giants' best running back, and their offense could be one of the league's best in 2015.

Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions

There are still some prominent free-agent backs remaining, and this incoming rookie class of RBs includes some first-round talent as well as fantastic depth. We know that these rookies -- and the remaining FAs -- are going to land somewhere and further gum up the running back spots across the NFL, creating even more running back-by-committee situations.

It's unclear whether the Lions will add another option, as Joique Bell remains entrenched as their starter and Riddick is their replacement for Reggie Bush as the receiving back. Riddick has been highly impressive in limited snaps, and should have a major role on throwing downs no matter how the Lions approach this draft. A 23-year old RB/WR hybrid, Riddick has a mere 67 touches during his career, but has scored five times. It's possible he could take over some slot duty for Detroit, as they currently have a void there.

Riddick could be ready for a breakout. If the Lions do take a running back early in the draft -- and we know they have talked extensively with Todd Gurley -- Riddick's value could be wiped out. But for now, he's worth grabbing.

Others whose value increased: Martellus Bennett, Marlon Brown, Travaris Cadet, Randall Cobb, Brandin Cooks, Bruce Ellington, Zach Ertz, Andre Johnson, Virgil Green, Josh Hill, Josh Huff, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Jordan Matthews, Cecil Shorts III, C.J. Spiller, Jonathan Stewart, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Williams, Russell Wilson

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

Players who lost value

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

These are facts:

1. Brees is getting older and approaching the twilight of his career; it can certainly be argued that he isn't the player he once was.

2. The Saints' defense is very much in need of repair.

3. In trading away Brees' best weapon and a fantastic touchdown producer in Jimmy Graham, New Orleans also brought in one of the best centers in the game today in Max Unger.

4. The Saints not only traded away Graham, but also Kenny Stills, a promising deep threat.

5. New Orleans re-signed Mark Ingram and added C.J. Spiller in free agency.

What does all of that tell us? New Orleans is wisely going to run the ball more, try to possess the football and make life easier on its aging quarterback and substandard defense. While this is all very good news for Ingram -- as well as Brandin Cooks and Josh Hill, both of whom should see more targets now -- it doesn't help the 36-year old signal-caller's fantasy situation one bit.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks

While no longer in Rob Gronkowski's class among dynasty tight ends, Graham is still one of the very best in the business. As noted above, he is an absolute monster in the red zone. But his value does take a slight dip, as the Seahawks simply do not throw the football nearly as regularly as New Orleans did the past few seasons.

Seattle has been very successful employing a more run-focused strategy, and Marshawn Lynch isn't going anywhere. However, the Graham/Lynch combination could be both good and bad for both players' value. Simply put, these are two of the truly elite touchdown producers in the game today, and there are only so many touchdowns to go around.

However, it will be interesting to watch when the Seahawks put two wide receivers, Lynch, Graham and either a fullback or second tight end on the field in base personnel. How will the opponent match up? If they play their base defense against this grouping, Graham will have mismatches galore. If they play nickel or dime, Lynch (and Wilson) will run against the lighter boxes. Neither sounds particularly appealing from a defensive perspective.

While that's a great thing for the Seahawks' offense in general, Graham's value (and Lynch's value) decreases some with this change of scenery.

Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Finding quality, every-week starting tight ends in fantasy is getting more and more difficult, and with Graham's stock dipping slightly because of his trade to Seattle -- and Thomas' stock dropping considerably with his move to Jacksonville -- the pickings at this position are very slim.

Thomas has proved to be an utter stud in terms of catching touchdown passes, with a dozen in each of the past two years, despite missing five games during that stretch. Thomas caught just 43 passes last year, and 12 were for touchdowns.

Thomas will not be able to maintain that pace in Jacksonville. The Jaguars threw just 15 touchdowns in their 16 games in 2014. While Blake Bortles is bound to improve in his second season, his offensive line has to be better and Bortles' receiving corps (including Thomas) should be better, there still won't be the kind of ridiculous touchdown production to go around as there was in Denver. And, despite popular opinion, Thomas isn't a rare athlete for the position, but merely an above-average one. Allen Robinson, not Thomas, should be the top target in this offense for the foreseeable future.

Others whose value decreased: Davante Adams, Duron Carter, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Donte Moncrief, DeMarco Murray, Khiry Robinson, Robert Woods

 

[Battlelyon]

So the guy who wanted to quit football last year, is the riser. Even if he is physically there, is there a belief he is mentally there. Talking about a guy one hit away.