delusional thinking

[WestCoastPhan]

Looking through most of these posts regarding next years team....seems like most of you think that with howard and revere back and a full year of sandberg, that this team is heading back to the post season! unfucking real!

 

[Omar 382]

Who has said this?

 

[LALakersboy24.7]

Another bat in the line up & with the pitching rotation you guys have you could have a shot if healthy

 

[Caligula]

Another bat in the line up & with the pitching rotation you guys have you could have a shot if healthy

No, you're wrong. Here is why:

You can not expect Utley and Howard to stay healthy. They won't.

Rollins and Howard of 5 years ago are not returning.

Utley will continue his decline. He had a nice year, but he is no longer a .300 hitter with 30 home runs.

If they resign Ruiz, you now have a really old infield.

They have limited their ability to bring in new talent due to the bad contracts they have attached themselves to (Rollins, Howard, Papelbon, most likely Ruiz, and Utley)

For pitching you have Hamels and Lee... and then who?

This team will struggle to be .500 next year.

 

[navamind]

No, you're wrong. Here is why:

You can not expect Utley and Howard to stay healthy. They won't.

Rollins and Howard of 5 years ago are not returning.

Utley will continue his decline. He had a nice year, but he is no longer a .300 hitter with 30 home runs.

If they resign Ruiz, you now have a really old infield.

They have limited their ability to bring in new talent due to the bad contracts they have attached themselves to (Rollins, Howard, Papelbon, most likely Ruiz, and Utley)

For pitching you have Hamels and Lee... and then who?

This team will struggle to be .500 next year.

A 2B with a 125 OPS+ is still very good. The problem is he can't stay healthy and he's declining defensively.

 

[Caligula]

A 2B with a 125 OPS+ is still very good. The problem is he can't stay healthy and he's declining defensively.

Like I said, he had a nice year. But there are obvious signs that his offense is in decline and you can not expect more next season. This season is the high water mark for Utley going forward.

 

[navamind]

I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't top this year's production ever again. But if he can hit like he did in even 2011-12 (where he batted .258/.353/.426 with an OPS+ of 111), he'd still be a pretty good player. 2B that can bat .300 and hit 30+ HR are rare. And those that do are usually among the most valuable players in the league (i.e. Kent, Hornsby, Cano).

 

[Omar 382]

I will always say that the Phillies will win the World Series every year until they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. But being realistic, 2015 is the earliest I could see us making the playoffs. We'll have to watch this offseason.

 

[Caligula]

I will always say that the Phillies will win the World Series every year until they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. But being realistic, 2015 is the earliest I could see us making the playoffs. We'll have to watch this offseason.

2016.

That is when Rollins, Utley, and Papelbon contracts are done. And Hopefully when the tards act like idiots and resign Ruiz it will only be a two year deal. They will also buy out Cliff Lee in 2016 for $12.5 million rather than $27.5 million.

 

[Retroram52]

Those years can not come fast enough. These contracts are examples of literally throwing money down the drain for what? Nostalgia? Loyalty? Give a freakin' break!!

 

[jvett77]

I'm delusional but practical. Guys like Ruf, Asche, Brown, and Revere provide a youthful mix of power and speed to balance out the lineup that includes Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Ruiz. That is how Sandberg will likely start the season. To win, the young guys must come through, and if they don't, the 35 year olds can't be blamed, and vise-versa. The Phillies can afford to gamble that the older guys can have a good year.

If it's not working, they have replacements to fill the positions, i.e., Hernadez at 2b and OF, AAA power hitting callup Franco at 1b/3b, and Rupp at catcher. Light hitting Galvis plays IF including short and OF. What the hell's to lose? It would be stupid and irrational not to try it.

Pitching will be the biggest problem with Halladay possibly not able to come back. Lee and Hamels must have a good year. Kendrick is a question mark, as are Lannan, Martin, Cloyd, and the entire relief staff. While I think the hitting will be fine, the Phils can only make the playoffs if the pitching gets fixed.

 

[Caligula]

Those years can not come fast enough. These contracts are examples of literally throwing money down the drain for what? Nostalgia? Loyalty? Give a freakin' break!!

Yeah, but the jackass fan base will go on and on about how "they can't rebuild since they need to give the appearance of competing for the upcoming TV deal that will solve everything."

The Phillies fan base is one of the dumbest fan bases in baseball.

 

[jvett77]

Who has said this?

The team has the position players young, old, and backups to make to the playoffs, but only if the pitching staff is fixed and that will be the biggest problem.

 

[WestCoastPhan]

I'm delusional but practical. Guys like Ruf, Asche, Brown, and Revere provide a youthful mix of power and speed to balance out the lineup that includes Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Ruiz. That is how Sandberg will likely start the season. To win, the young guys must come through, and if they don't, the 35 year olds can't be blamed, and vise-versa. The Phillies can afford to gamble that the older guys can have a good year.

If it's not working, they have replacements to fill the positions, i.e., Hernadez at 2b and OF, AAA power hitting callup Franco at 1b/3b, and Rupp at catcher. Light hitting Galvis plays IF including short and OF. What the hell's to lose? It would be stupid and irrational not to try it.

Pitching will be the biggest problem with Halladay possibly not able to come back. Lee and Hamels must have a good year. Kendrick is a question mark, as are Lannan, Martin, Cloyd, and the entire relief staff. While I think the hitting will be fine, the Phils can only make the playoffs if the pitching gets fixed.

You forgot gonzalez probably in the rotation. You can't possibly be serious about listing kendrick, cloyd, and lannan! Not on the team next year. Also they are trying hard to make martin a reliever.
So overall, how do you like the team today? This is the same team that will be on the field next year, except they will be a year older and howard and revere will not be on the DL ( at least they should be back at the start of2014). If this is the team you think will be successful, then you are delussional.

 

[jvett77]

You forgot gonzalez probably in the rotation. You can't possibly be serious about listing kendrick, cloyd, and lannan! Not on the team next year. Also they are trying hard to make martin a reliever.
So overall, how do you like the team today? This is the same team that will be on the field next year, except they will be a year older and howard and revere will not be on the DL ( at least they should be back at the start of2014). If this is the team you think will be successful, then you are delussional.

Yeah, left out Gonzalez. And he's also a question mark. It won't be the same team. The team today is missing their lead off hitter, Revere. They have only sporadic power. A healthy Ryan Howard is missed. But Ruf, Brown, and Ashe must improve next year along with Hernandez and Franco if called up. If they don't, it really will be a struggle. Then the team will be bad for many years because the young guys are expected to be the saviors. You're too anti-old players.Guys like Beltran and Ortiz thrive. Ruiz has another year plus in him and he's showing that. I have to go with Utley and Howard back and healthy and see what happens next spring. I have no solution for Poppins, only Galvis.

 

[lhagen931]

IMO, the Phillies hitting has to get better and more consistent.

 

[Retroram52]

If the hitting AND the pitching don't improve, then we will continue to see the same old Phillies refrain of getting 2 or 3 players in scoring position and then leave them standing with two knuckleheads that strike-out or pop-out. I am soooooo tired of seeing that I could spit nails!! Then poor pitching gives up a homer or several runs and before anyone can say "Amaro's an idiot" we are down 3-4 runs and often in the first two innings.

 

[BPNAZ]

Like I said, he had a nice year. But there are obvious signs that his offense is in decline and you can not expect more next season. This season is the high water mark for Utley going forward.

Utley has never been the type that's been 100% healthy for long stretches during his career. He gets hit a lot, somethings always nagging him. Hes that type of player

also, when was Utley ever a perennial .300/30 guy like some of you always like to say. Just once in his career has he ever done that together in one season. Hes more a .285 guy with about 20-25 hrs a season on average, which would still put him top 5 at his position in the NL

I mean, he still has the 3rd highest OPS for 2B in ALL OF BASEBALL. He will likely reach just about 500 atbats this season, and would expect the same next season

 

[Caligula]

In his prime, he hit .291-.331 for four seasons with 28-33 home runs for five seasons.

He isn't a .285 hitter any more either. This was his first "healthy" season in the last four seasons and he still missed a month.

Again, if Utley was the only aging, declining, injury prone contract in the infield, it wouldn't be a problem. But, when they are shooting for four of them next year, this is a huge problem and one of the reasons why the team sucked this year.

Also, how can you expect 500 at-bats from him when he hasn't reached that number since 2009 and won't reach it this season either.