Bowden FA predictions

[tzill]

Athletic today, Bowden published his top 20 FAs with "best fits" and projected salaries. Historically, he's been pretty good. The occasional big miss, but generally fairly close. Here are the guys he thought would fit on the Giants, with years and projected salary:

Scherzer 3 years/ $150M
KB 6/150
Ray 5/120
Gaus 5/118
Stroman 5/110
Marte 4/104
Suzuki (27 yo OF/IF, the Carp are going to post him) 5/101
Jansen 2/40
Rodon 1/12
Verlander 1/18
Taylor 4/64
Iglesias 3/51
Belt 4/79

Assuming those numbers are close, I'd like:
Ray, Gaus, Suzuki, Rodon, Verlander, Taylor, Belt.

 

[calsnowskier]

Scherzer still looks great, but 3/150?

YIKES

No thank you.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am surprised that Gray isn’t on this list. I suspect he will stay in Denver, but I think a 3/45 gets him.

I would like to have Gas back, but at 24 per? On a long contract?

Jansen may be interesting. Take some pressure off Doval and show him the ropes.

If we can get Rodon a 1/12 show it contract, yes please.

Marte is too perfect a match for that not to happen. And 4/104 is not ridiculous.

 

[LHG]

I am surprised that Gray isn’t on this list. I suspect he will stay in Denver, but I think a 3/45 gets him.

I would like to have Gas back, but at 24 per? On a long contract?

Jansen may be interesting. Take some pressure off Doval and show him the ropes.

If we can get Rodon a 1/12 show it contract, yes please.

Marte is too perfect a match for that not to happen. And 4/104 is not ridiculous.

Over at MLBTR, their 3 prognosticators all think Gausman comes back on a 6 year, $138 million deal. That deal could get ugly real fast.

They think Marte signs somewhere at 4 years, $80 million.

Both would be 37 at the end of their contracts. I don't really like locking guys up that long, at that price, when they are that old at the end of the deal. Marte's deal seems like risky, overall.

Gray, by the way, they think will sign for 4 years, $56 million. One of the 3 seems to think he'll land with the Giants. The nice thing about that is that he'd be 34 when the contract expires.

On another player, 2 see Verlander signing a 2 year, $40 million deal with the Giants. Pretty risky to lock up that much money on him, in my opinion.

Last one to mention, one of them sees the Giants grabbing Corey Kluber in a 1 year, $12 million deal. Maybe.

 

[tzill]

A few sources released their free agency contract predictions today. Check out the variance on Kevin Gausman: MLBTR: Six years, $138M (23 AAV) ESPN: Five years, $105M (21 AAV) FanGraphs: Three years, $54M (18 AAV) I think ESPN will be closest, and would be shocked by 3/$54M.

 

[calsnowskier]

A few sources released their free agency contract predictions today. Check out the variance on Kevin Gausman: MLBTR: Six years, $138M (23 AAV) ESPN: Five years, $105M (21 AAV) FanGraphs: Three years, $54M (18 AAV) I think ESPN will be closest, and would be shocked by 3/$54M.

Personally, I see him more as a 3/54 than a 6/138. He was a stud pre-ASB, than he had some family issues and became a #3 at best from that point forward. The family issues might explain his bad second half, but IMHO, he needs to prove it. He doesn’t have the track record to fall back on.

 

[LHG]

Personally, I see him more as a 3/54 than a 6/138. He was a stud pre-ASB, than he had some family issues and became a #3 at best from that point forward. The family issues might explain his bad second half, but IMHO, he needs to prove it. He doesn’t have the track record to fall back on.

I agree with this. Two offseasons ago, his future looked like it was in the bullpen somewhere but the Giants took a gamble on him in the severely shortened 2020 season and it paid off. A 6 year contract, with his history, is extremely risky. A 3 year deal is significantly less risky. I hope the Giants don't sign him for more than that long.

 

[tzill]

Personally, I see him more as a 3/54 than a 6/138. He was a stud pre-ASB, than he had some family issues and became a #3 at best from that point forward. The family issues might explain his bad second half, but IMHO, he needs to prove it. He doesn’t have the track record to fall back on.

He's got a solid track record the last two years. He'll get 4-5 years from somebody. Might not be us.

 

[calsnowskier]

He's got a solid track record the last two years. He'll get 4-5 years from somebody. Might not be us.

He is a GREAT 60-game-season pitcher. I will grant you that.

 

[calsnowskier]

But with Posey gone, I doubt he will give us any kind of home-town discount, so if there is even 1 team out there stupid enough to give him a big 5 or 6 year deal based his ‘20/‘21 track record…

 

[LHG]

But with Posey gone, I doubt he will give us any kind of home-town discount, so if there is even 1 team out there stupid enough to give him a big 5 or 6 year deal based his ‘20/‘21 track record…

I do wonder how much of his success (and the success of the rest of the motley crew in the starting rotation) was due to Posey. They may be smart to find the next smartest catcher in MLB and sign with that team.