Adrian Beltre - Hall Of Fame Candidate?

[PolarVortex]

Might be a bit unorthodox putting a Beltre thread in here, but he did play for us for five years and I've wondered what Mariner fans think of his HOF candidacy?

He starts the 2015 season as a 36 year old. He has 2604 hits and 395 homeruns.

He should reach 3000 career hits in the second half of the 2017 season, factoring in declining stats as he gets further and further past his prime. Every HOF qualifying player with 3000 hits, who has not been blacklisted, is in the HOF. If he gets traded from Texas to a less hitter-friendly stadium, his stats could further suffer.

I don't think he can reach 500 homeruns but he should reach 450. Almost everyone with 450+ homers is eitther in the HOF, will be in the HOF or would be in the HOF if they weren't blacklisted. The only exceptions are Dunn, Delgado and McGriff.

The kicker for me is where he ranks in career offensive WAR. He is currently 42nd all time. Of the 41 guys above him, 34 are in the Hall. The other 7 are Bonds, ARod, Chipper Jones, Rose, Bagwell, Griffey, and Pujols.

He didn't put up HOF stats when he played here. Maybe some fans have a prejudice toward him for that reason. It's understandable.

 

[Mondo Jay]

A case can certainly be made. He did have that rather suspiciously productive 2004 season that seemed kinda juicy.

 

[PolarVortex]

Might be a bit unorthodox putting a Beltre thread in here, but he did play for us for five years and I've wondered what Mariner fans think of his HOF candidacy?

He starts the 2015 season as a 36 year old. He has 2604 hits and 395 homeruns.

He should reach 3000 career hits in the second half of the 2017 season, factoring in declining stats as he gets further and further past his prime. Every HOF qualifying player with 3000 hits, who has not been blacklisted, is in the HOF. If he gets traded from Texas to a less hitter-friendly stadium, his stats could further suffer.

I don't think he can reach 500 homeruns but he should reach 450. Almost everyone with 450+ homers is eitther in the HOF, will be in the HOF or would be in the HOF if they weren't blacklisted. The only exceptions are Dunn, Delgado and McGriff.

The kicker for me is where he ranks in career offensive WAR. He is currently 42nd all time. Of the 41 guys above him, 34 are in the Hall. The other 7 are Bonds, ARod, Chipper Jones, Rose, Bagwell, Griffey, and Pujols.

He didn't put up HOF stats when he played here. Maybe some fans have a prejudice toward him for that reason. It's understandable.

BTW - I said he ranks 42nd in career offensive WAR. This is incorrect. He ranks 42nd in overall WAR, which takes into account his defensive WAR also.

 

[PolarVortex]

A case can certainly be made. He did have that rather suspiciously productive 2004 season that seemed kinda juicy.

Without having any proof, I think it is pretty obviously that he had some help in 2004. But in later years after he left Seattle, I think his improved stats have just been the product of hitting in better lineups and smaller ballparks.

 

[jeffro151]

As long as he never gets named as a juicer, he's definitely going to the HOF.

 

[navamind]

Should be in.

 

[cezero]

Despite skating by here after realizing Seattle wasn't a great match for his hitting, he's had a HOF career, IMO.

 

[dude82]

Factoring in his defense, I'd say he could get in even if he retired now and was short of the offensive benchmarks people like to use to determine a player's Hall worthiness. It'd be hard to keep one of the best defensive third basemen of all-time out of the Hall of Fame even with his current numbers on offense. If he plays until he's 40 and gets to 3000 hits and/or 500 homeruns, I'd say he's a lock. Literally the only thing that could keep him out is if somebody could definitively prove he was juicing in 2004.

 

[Msfann]

I would say yes, he's a hell of a player. I wish he had never left Seattle.

 

[cezero]

I would say yes, he's a hell of a player. I wish he had never l. eft Seattle.

Where he hit well below his career average in every way possible every year.

...and yes, he would've remained the best player on the team.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not sure he is a "shoe-in", but he should certainly get some serious consideration. His defense alone should have him on many short-lists.

His offensive inconsistency will hurt him, though. He was a good/not-great player in LA before '04, then went back in his shell in Seattle. Then he miraculously exploded in '10 and has had interestingly MONSTROUS numbers since. I know his production-curve is counter to the PED years, but there will certainly be some who will look at him with a questioning eye.

At the end of the day, put a gun to my head, I think he misses the actual induction.

 

[SeattleCoug]

For as much as his numbers dropped here they were still way better then most hitters that come here. I would gladly take someone who could hit .270-.280 and put up 20 homers.

 

[wazzu31]

Beltre is the exact type of hitter that can flourish at Safeco Field but for some reason (a sense of pride with his contract, I don't know) he just refused to.

As for his HOF, I think it all depends on who the voters let in before him that have PED connections. I think his numbers will end up being he might end up being a victim of voters who want to erase the era from history.

 

[broncosmitty]

He's a HOFer.