A Quick View on how the AFCW is Perceived

[Fountain City Blues]

From OddsShark's Futures Article on the AFCW:

The AFC West could be wide open this season, despite the defending Super Bowl champions calling it their home. The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs have opened at virtually the same odds to win the AFC West with the Oakland Raiders close behind.

The Broncos open as the slight +165 favorite, but will need to somehow fill the void left at quarterback with Peyton Manning retiring and Brock Osweiller bolting to Houston. Whoever that quarterback is should have a stellar defense to carry the team, much like last season.

The Chiefs’ passing game was pretty mediocre last season, but managed to finish sixth in the NFL in rushing despite Jamaal Charles only playing five games. Kansas City held opponents to just 17.9 points per game — the third lowest mark in the NFL — while adding quality players in Chris Jones and KeiVarae Russell through the draft.

Oakland’s finally looking to become a respectable team with the rebuild over the past few seasons clearly working. The Raiders offense features – possibly – the best young quarterback-receiver duo in Derek Carr and Amari Cooper.

The Chargers could throw the ball well last season…and that’s about it.

At BetOnline, here are the odds:

• Denver Broncos +165
• Kansas City Chiefs +175
• Oakland Raiders +275
• San Diego Chargers +800

No clear favorite, little to no difference between the Broncos and the Chiefs, a coinflip if you will.

BOVADA had the following O/U's

Chiefs 9.5 (T-6th)
Broncos 9 (12th)
Raiders 8.5 (T-13th)
Chargers 7 (26th)

Another close and competitive group based on simply how the betting is playing out. The Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders are separated by 1 win or less. This time, the Chiefs are the slight favorite.

Football Outsiders

Being an analytical site at its core makes this arguably the most compelling projection, especially now, but I'd caution that it's just that: A Projection. I sure hope I don't see fans on the web claiming Andy Reid choked or some nonsense because they merely go 11-5 instead of 12-4, for instance. Injuries make any and all projections about football worth about the same as aged bread. What if Big Ben goes down, or Maclin, Von Miller, Rivers, Antonio Brown?

Chiefs 12-4
Chargers 8-8
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 6-10

Chiefs are a pretty strong favorite in this model which surprised me, but I suppose I am just trained to assume Denver can get away with juggling plates on a unicycle if they want to the past few years. My guess is simply that a lot of those close games break more 50/50 for Denver, takeaways regress (not a repeatable skill) without a terribly big dip in giveaways (Thanks Sanchez) and they have Mark freakin' Sanchez at QB; can't get much worse. San Diego is an interesting team and 8-8 isn't outrageous to me, but a more curious case is the Raiders. I'm legitimately curious to breakdown why the model pegged them as a ~6 win team.

Adam Schein of NFL.Com writes that the Raiders are poised to knock off Denver; not one mention of the Chiefs which you can take out of it what you will.

Rising Raiders poised to knock Broncos off AFC West throne

Sportsline

Sportsline claims the Chiefs are the best "value" pick in the NFL fwiw (not much) but their projection is relatively similar in theme to the others: It'll be a competitive division, with generally the Chiefs or Broncos being the slight favorite depending on who you talk to.

What's also interesting to see is the pessimism regarding Oakland in several projection and betting systems. Seems to be a lot more hype amongst talking heads, fans, and pundits than projection systems, bettors, and just analytics.

O/U

Chiefs 10.3 wins 56.3% chance to win the division
Broncos 9.5 wins 30.9% chance to win the division
Raiders 7.4 wins 7.9% chance to win the division
Chargers 6.8 wins 5.0% chance to win the division

There's a lot more out there, but it's generally the same theme with several competing narratives depending on who they pegged as 1-3 in the division for the most part. A few exceptions like Football Outsiders, but I haven't seen many claiming this will be a relatively uncompetitive division.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Seahawks, Steelers, Panthers headline 10 most talented teams

The seesaw of opinions regarding the Chiefs/Broncos continues.

 

[Clayton]

Philip Rivers had 119 more pass attempts than Alex Smith last year and Smith played in 2 playoff games.

The tread is going to come off Rivers game sometime in the next 3 years. He hasn't missed a game in 10 years and is coming off a seriously high usage year. I feel like the models that show the Chargers doing well are just assuming that Rivers will carry the team on his back again.

Chargers had really good red zone numbers last year. If 'bad decision' Rivers makes an appearance again then the Chargers could be a 2-14 type of team. They could also be a 2-14 type of team if he gets banged up. They could also be a 9-10 win team if they find anything resembling a defense and Gordon breaks out. I personally doubt it but it could certainly happen.

Chiefs turnover margin last year was unsustainably high. Part of that might just be the roster construction. I would certainly argue that. Chiefs also were lackluster in the red zone. There is the possibility that the team could go either direction but they have a lot of +s and a lot of -s and odds are the Chiefs are going to end up close to where they were last year - a fringe contender.

Broncos and Raiders are complete unknowns imo.