76ers assets before/after Hinkie

[Sparhawk]

 

[Sparhawk]

If the Sixers had stayed the course and kept chasing the 8th seed in the playoffs with mid-tier draft picks and free agents, they could have lost multiple 1st round picks. They would have had to have gotten extremely lucky to land a draft pick like a Draymond Green to even have a chance at getting better. And what free agents are going to come to a team on the playoff bubble?

Hinkie recognized the inefficiency of chasing that playoff seed. And if you 're going to tank, you may as well tank in the most dramatic fashion as possible. Remember, the Sixers weren't the worst team in the league in 13-14 or 14-15. With two more potential top-10 picks in 2017 (better of SAC/PHI and LAL 4-10), this team has a future.

TTP

 

[knowyourenemy]

Are the assets ranked in order? I feel like, once you get past #18 on the current list, it gets a little wacky. For example, Henderson is clearly more valuable than any of the 4 guys above him and Carl Landry is clearly more valuable than Elton Brand (and probably a lot of the assets listed above him, but am I really going to make a stink about the 45th ranked asset on the team?)

It's a shame that they lost Christian Wood. I liked his upside. Then again, they really didn't need another big man.

I think the Lakers pick is more valuable than Nerlens Noel. I also think Okafor is more valuable than him and that will become apparent this season.

That being said, thanks for putting this together. It's amazing to see what we had (not much) and what Hinkie was able to turn it into.

 

[Sparhawk]

This was from the HoopsHype Twitter account, so it must be their own ranking system.
The list is what it is, I'm sure you can move some names around, but one is clearly better than the other.
Not sure how you could argue against that.

 

[Sparhawk]

Dario with 15-7-3 and 3-5 from 3PT range in win against Brazil.

 

[knowyourenemy]

This was from the HoopsHype Twitter account, so it must be their own ranking system.
The list is what it is, I'm sure you can move some names around, but one is clearly better than the other.
Not sure how you could argue against that.

I can't. Before Hinkie, this team was a disaster. During Hinkie, perhaps some may say the team was an embarrassment but it's undeniable that the team is in better shape now than when he arrived.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

It looks even better when you compare it to a team like Orlando, who didn't make the playoffs but "tried". That team is a trainwreck at this point. Moving Aaron Gordon to the 3 takes away his greatest asset (his athleticism at the 4). Trading Oladipo + other things for Ibaka remains something I cannot understand, especially given they already had Gordon at the 4 and Vucevic at the 5. In the end, Hinkie was a pretty damn good GM and the ownership stabbed him in the back, despite him being open and honest about the plan and its difficulty the whole time. The best I hope for now is that the Colangelo's just don't ruin it by chasing mirages.

 

[Sparhawk]

After The Process: Meet Sam Hinkie 2.0

 

[eaglesnut]

A great man

 

[knowyourenemy]

So, I wanted to reevaluate the 76ers players/assets.

1. Ben Simmons (3 years remaining until RFA)
2. Joel Embiid (1 year remaining until RFA)
3. Dario Saric (3 years remaining until RFA)
4. 76ers 2017 1st round pick (swap rights with SAC)
5. LAL Pick -- 2017 4-30, else 2018 unprotected
6. 76ers 2018 1st round pick
7. SAC 2019 1st round pick
8. Jahlil Okafor (2 years remaining until RFA)
9. Richaun Holmes (2 years remaining until UFA)
10. Robert Covington (1 year remaining until UFA)
11. 76ers 2019 1st round pick
12. T.J. McConnell (2 years remaining until UFA)
13. TLC (3 years remaining until RFA)
14. 2017 2nd round pick -- likely to be Knicks 2nd rounder
15. 76ers 2020 1st round pick
16. OKC 2020 1st round pick, top 20 protected
17. DAL Pick -- 2017 first rounder, top 18 protected (likely to convey as 2nd round pick in 2017 and 2nd round pick in 2018). 2017 second rounder is projected to be 40th overall.
18. Brooklyn 2018 2nd round pick
19. Justin Anderson (2 years remaining until RFA)
20. 76ers 2021 1st round pick

If my rankings are accurate at all, we traded one of our top 5 assets for our 17th and 19th most valuable assets (although #17 is really two assets).

 

[Sparhawk]

So, I wanted to reevaluate the 76ers players/assets.

1. Ben Simmons (3 years remaining until RFA)
2. Joel Embiid (1 year remaining until RFA)
3. Dario Saric (3 years remaining until RFA)
4. 76ers 2017 1st round pick (swap rights with SAC)
5. LAL Pick -- 2017 4-30, else 2018 unprotected
6. 76ers 2018 1st round pick
7. SAC 2019 1st round pick
8. Jahlil Okafor (2 years remaining until RFA)
9. Richaun Holmes (2 years remaining until UFA)
10. Robert Covington (1 year remaining until UFA)
11. 76ers 2019 1st round pick
12. T.J. McConnell (2 years remaining until UFA)
13. TLC (3 years remaining until RFA)
14. 2017 2nd round pick -- likely to be Knicks 2nd rounder
15. 76ers 2020 1st round pick
16. OKC 2020 1st round pick, top 20 protected
17. DAL Pick -- 2017 first rounder, top 18 protected (likely to convey as 2nd round pick in 2017 and 2nd round pick in 2018). 2017 second rounder is projected to be 40th overall.
18. Brooklyn 2018 2nd round pick
19. Justin Anderson (2 years remaining until RFA)
20. 76ers 2021 1st round pick

If my rankings are accurate at all, we traded one of our top 5 assets for our 17th and 19th most valuable assets (although #17 is really two assets).

I think Covington needs to be much higher and Okafor lower.
Also need to throw Korkmaz in there somewhere.

We traded Noel (top 5 asset) for three lower assets (JA and two 2nd rounders) and cap room, so before you can close the book on this trade, we need to see who the Sixers sign for the projected salary that Noel would have commanded (estimated $15-25M per year?). That money could go to Covington in a long term deal, so there are multiple ways to look at the Noel trade. If they don't use that money, then yes, it was terrible.

 

[knowyourenemy]

I think Covington needs to be much higher and Okafor lower.
Also need to throw Korkmaz in there somewhere.

We traded Noel (top 5 asset) for three lower assets (JA and two 2nd rounders) and cap room, so before you can close the book on this trade, we need to see who the Sixers sign for the projected salary that Noel would have commanded (estimated $15-25M per year?). That money could go to Covington in a long term deal, so there are multiple ways to look at the Noel trade. If they don't use that money, then yes, it was terrible.

What do you think Covington commands? He shoots under .400 from the field but he's solid from 3 point range. Obviously, his defense is his strength. I don't think he gets Allen Crabbe money because of his offensive shortcomings. If we look at some 2016 signings, it might be helpful.

Gerald Henderson got $9 million per year (2/18). Wesley Johnson got $6 million per year (3/18). Wayne Ellington got $6 million per year (2/12). Lance Thomas got $7 million per year (4/27). Jeff Green got $15 (1/15). Afflalo got $12.5 million per year (2/25). Dudley got $10 million per year (3/30).

Of course, there's Crabbe (4/72), Turner (4/70), Batum (5/120), Parson (4/94), Bazemore (4/70). But he's not any of those players (although I'm still wondering how Turner got 4/70).

I think anywhere from 3-4 years at $8-10 million per year is reasonable for him. I don't think you can justify going over $10 million per year for him and if it's for 4 years, I think it's got to be on the lower end of the scale. 3/30 would be perfectly justifiable, though.

 

[knowyourenemy]

I think Covington needs to be much higher and Okafor lower.
Also need to throw Korkmaz in there somewhere.

We traded Noel (top 5 asset) for three lower assets (JA and two 2nd rounders) and cap room, so before you can close the book on this trade, we need to see who the Sixers sign for the projected salary that Noel would have commanded (estimated $15-25M per year?). That money could go to Covington in a long term deal, so there are multiple ways to look at the Noel trade. If they don't use that money, then yes, it was terrible.

Covington will shoot up once he's signed. The uncertainty of his future with the team diminishes his value in my eyes. Probably bump Korkmaz in at 14 and push everything else down 1 spot. Depending on what pick that 2nd rounder is, I may value it more than both Korkmaz and TLC. We could get a solid player in the 2nd round this year or move it for something of value.

 

[Sparhawk]

What do you think Covington commands? He shoots under .400 from the field but he's solid from 3 point range. Obviously, his defense is his strength. I don't think he gets Allen Crabbe money because of his offensive shortcomings. If we look at some 2016 signings, it might be helpful.

Gerald Henderson got $9 million per year (2/18). Wesley Johnson got $6 million per year (3/18). Wayne Ellington got $6 million per year (2/12). Lance Thomas got $7 million per year (4/27). Jeff Green got $15 (1/15). Afflalo got $12.5 million per year (2/25). Dudley got $10 million per year (3/30).

Of course, there's Crabbe (4/72), Turner (4/70), Batum (5/120), Parson (4/94), Bazemore (4/70). But he's not any of those players (although I'm still wondering how Turner got 4/70).

I think anywhere from 3-4 years at $8-10 million per year is reasonable for him. I don't think you can justify going over $10 million per year for him and if it's for 4 years, I think it's got to be on the lower end of the scale. 3/30 would be perfectly justifiable, though.

Covington gets 4/40 at a minimum, but I think he'll be closer to 4/50, maybe even 4/60.
He's an elite defender and we haven't even seen what he can with both Embiid and Simmons out there.
I hope he signs a team friendly contract, but if I'm his agent, all I see are $$$.

 

[knowyourenemy]

Covington gets 4/40 at a minimum, but I think he'll be closer to 4/50, maybe even 4/60.
He's an elite defender and we haven't even seen what he can with both Embiid and Simmons out there.
I hope he signs a team friendly contract, but if I'm his agent, all I see are $$$.

What recent signing can he point to that justifies $15 million per year for 4 years? What other NBA team is going to offer him that kind of money? Does the new CBA blow all of that out of the water? I just don't see it happening. 3/30 or 4/36. They can't go higher than that for him.

 

[Sparhawk]

What recent signing can he point to that justifies $15 million per year for 4 years? What other NBA team is going to offer him that kind of money? Does the new CBA blow all of that out of the water? I just don't see it happening. 3/30 or 4/36. They can't go higher than that for him.

Hope you're right.
He's been playing very good ball in January and February.

Using advanced metrics, Covington leads the team in defensive win shares with 2.6 (McConell at 1.7, Saric at 1.5, and Embiid at 1.5).

Value over Replacement Player (VORP) : Covington is at 1.5 (Embiid 1.1, Saric -0.2)

 

[knowyourenemy]

Hope you're right.

He still has next year (unless they work out an extension before the end of 2017-2018) but barring a major improvement in his FG%, I don't think another NBA team could justify paying him $15 million per year. You may be right that 3/30 or 4/36 is too low. I'm just basing it off similar skillset players who signed last offseason.

Alternatively, the 76ers have a team option for 2017-2018. I wonder if Covington would be willing to take a smaller salary longterm in exchange for more money up front. They could opt out of the contract and extend him immediately, which has its pros and cons, but it could benefit them in the long run.

This team is struggling to hit the salary floor each year. Why not give some of that money to a guy you want to be a contributor going forward?

 

[Taddy Mason]

Oh, NBA...

 

[Sparhawk]

Insert Admiral Ackbar gif here....

It's a trap!

 

[eaglesnut]

Oh, NBA...

Fucking NBA. Hinkie would have us dominate for the next 20 years.