Discussion in 'Philadelphia Flyers' started by awaz, Apr 24, 2018.
I agree, I don't think we'll see Lehtera much this season. Fingers crossed lol.
Regarding Provorov. I think the Flyers can probably lock him up for 5/25 now. I mean he is so young and his big deal would be after the 5 years are up. I am sure the Flyers have a plan and wont let him go anywhere. Having these guys due big money will eventually cause issues picking who to keep. Thats a problem for another day
Its definitely a good problem to have.
WJSS 2018: The Americans
2017-18 Player Review: Shayne Gostisbehere emerges as top pairing defenseman
I believe it has to be a three year deal or shorter to keep his RFA status. If he signs for five years, he could just test the open market after that contract is up and leave the team at age 27. That's potentially right while he's in his prime too. He may not want to leave, but let's not give him the option until he is well into his 30's...Lol
So, possibly 3 years @ $15-17 million total is incoming here. It's around 10-20% more than Ghost is making.
Yeah, it will be either 3 years or less or 8 years. I don't see anything in the middle happening. I'm guessing they go the full 8, though. Ghost was still a bit of a risk hence the bridge deal. They already know what they have with Provy, they just need to agree on the dollar amount with his agent.
2017-18 Player Review: Sean Couturier is elite
Not to say it can't happen, but that type of deal, for this caliber of player, doesn't happen very often. Looking through bridge deals for RFA dmen, the only one I really see recently is Trouba. High end defensive talent, the Jets signed him to a 2 year bridge at 3M per, then did it again this season, 1 year at 5.5M. The Panthers did it with Kulikov back in 2014 also 3 years 4.3M, but he kinda flamed out so it's tough to compare.
I think you run a risk playing that game. 3 years from now, if things go well, Provorov may have won a Norris by then. The RFA thing only goes so far, you're probably not going to get a Norris trophy winner under 8M. Here are the last 6 winners (7 seasons)
Hedman - 7.875
Burns - 8
Doughty - 11
Karlsson - 6.5 (signed in 2012 as an RFA)
Keith - 5.5 (signed in 2010 as an RFA, good ole 13 year deal, before they protected GMs from themselves)
Subban - 9 (signed in 2014, not sure how he didn't show up in my initial research, he's a great example actually, more below)
So Subban is a perfect example. Montreal signed him to a 2x2.875 bridge deal when his ELC expired (2012). 4.5% of the cap. Then when that deal expired they went long term, 8x9, 13% of the cap. Subban won the Norris in 2013, the first year of his bridge deal.
So. You're thinking 3 years 15-17M for a bridge deal. We'll take the low end, and call it 3x5. 6.2% of the cap. I think that's probably a good estimate. He's more well rounded than Subban, especially when Subban was that age. And the points at that age don't lag that far behind either. So 3x5, then you're looking to re-sign him again in 2022. Say he wins the Norris sometime in those 3 years, not unrealistic IMO, especially as the rest of the Flyers team gets better. Then his long term, 8 year deal, is 13% of the cap. Over the past 3 seasons the cap has gone up 6.5M, seems like a fairly common trend to take a 4-5M jump every couple seasons. So lets be a little conservative, call it 85M cap in 2022. Provorov's long term deal (at 13% of the cap) would be 8x11M then. And just for fun, i'm pretty confident in 8x8 if they sign him to a long term deal now, using Ekblad as a comparable. But say it goes to 8x8.5.
So do you want:
22-25 Provorov at 5M
25-33 Provorov at 11M
22-30 Provorov at 8.5M
I can definitely see the argument on both sides. Option 1 you have Provorov locked up til he's 33. You get him at a ridiculous bargain until he's 25.
For me though, I'm taking Option 2 and getting him at 8.5 through his prime. IMO, the 3.5M you save during the bridge isn't as valuable as the 2.5M you save in his 25-30 years, when the Flyers have made a couple runs, the ELC's are running out, the prospect pool is thinning out and are trying to keep the band together.
Plus, it wouldn't be that surprising if the 30-33 years at 11M are an overpay as he starts his 30+ decline.
Also feel like I should pitch CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps to be fair to them. They've got a ton of cap stuff if you're interested in it. Clearly I should change professions...
Option 2 please! If we only have to worry about his contract every 8 years im good with that. When he is 30 who knows we may have a new young defenseman just as good as 22 year old Prov which will make his new contract after 30 expendable.
Option 2 for me, he'll be a horse through his prime.
Yes, if he's what we expect, age 30 will not slow him down one bit.
I'll gladly rather pay him an average of $9.4 million over 11 extra seasons than $8.5 million over just 8 extra seasons. We keep him for longer and save a lot in the first three years. Paying less than a million more per season to have him for three more seasons would be well worth it if he is in fact a perennial Norris candidate.
And again, if he's THAT good, he's not declining at age 30. Brent Burns is 33 and just put up 67 points. We could go on and on, plus Provy isn't as big and physical either. The wear and tear on his body will be lesser.
Definitely some logic to what you're suggesting in terms of not having to make a decision about signing him to another long term deal at age 30. Just look at the current Simmonds situation...
I can't wait to see this kid in a uni, he's got serious dedication..
True but I think he's a different type of player, we may be wanting to lock him up until he's 35 before it's all said and done. he doesn't seem overly injury prone(knock ob wood) I could see him having serious longevity but then again I want to see him play here a long time too.
Flyers Top 20 Prospects – July 2018
According to this hes our 18th best prospect so it may take a while for him to get to the bigs.
Is it just me or does Hart look REALLY small in this picture...
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