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Melo gone

tlance

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I think they're eventually going to trade Schroeder. He has 3 years left on his contract at 15 mill yearly. No way are they keeping him on their roster for another 3 years to be a 6th man.

This was more about getting rid of Melo but I'll be a little surprised if he is on their roster next summer.

Which is why I don't like the move for OKC.

They had to attach a first rounder to Melo to move him, and they will have to attach another pick to Shroder to get him out.

He does not have positive trade value. Tough to build a contender by making salary dump trades.
 

tlance

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I think they're eventually going to trade Schroeder. He has 3 years left on his contract at 15 mill yearly. No way are they keeping him on their roster for another 3 years to be a 6th man.

This was more about getting rid of Melo but I'll be a little surprised if he is on their roster next summer.

Which is why I don't like the move for OKC.

They had to attach a first rounder to Melo to move him, and they will have to attach another pick to Shroder to get him out.

He does not have positive trade value. Tough to build a contender by making salary dump trades.
 

Scapegoat

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I don't think so, just think the logic is a bit off.

'22 will be strong in theory because it will have the 1 and dones + the high schoolers and everyone else that needed more than a year of college.

'23 will have a new class of high schoolers along with everybody coming out of college. Just like every subsequent year. No reason to assume the class of '23 will be weaker than any other year, at least not at the top. There will always be a new class of high schoolers. '22 is special because it would be the first year those players are eligible, so you essentially get a double class of elite prospects.

We disagree again. Cool thing about this one is we will get to see it play out.
 

tlance

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We disagree again. Cool thing about this one is we will get to see it play out.

That is the thing.

It may be a weak class.

But as of today, there is no reason to think it will be any weaker than 2024 or 2025, or any year thereafter.

2006 was the year that was supposed to be weak, because it was the first year high schoolers weren't eligible. In that class, there were no elite prospects. Bargnani was drafted 1, Aldridge 2, and Adam Morrison 3.

While there were some good players in the class, like Aldridge, brandon Roy, rudy Gay, Rondo, Lowry and Millsap, it was clearly a weak class.

2022 will basically make up for what the league did in 2006, and every subsequent draft will Be similar to the talent available every year before.
 

Scapegoat

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That is the thing.

It may be a weak class.

But as of today, there is no reason to think it will be any weaker than 2024 or 2025, or any year thereafter.

2006 was the year that was supposed to be weak, because it was the first year high schoolers weren't eligible. In that class, there were no elite prospects. Bargnani was drafted 1, Aldridge 2, and Adam Morrison 3.

While there were some good players in the class, like Aldridge, brandon Roy, rudy Gay, Rondo, Lowry and Millsap, it was clearly a weak class.

2022 will basically make up for what the league did in 2006, and every subsequent draft will Be similar to the talent available every year before.

You're making my point. 2022 will be loaded. It will basically be a double class. So lottery level talent won't just be 1-14 it will be 1-28. The late first round talent will be in the second round.
Then 2023 will like you said be similar to 2006 because the high school talent went in 2022. Then again like you said the following years will be regular years.
But those two years will play out as a strong and weak draft.
 

thunderc

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As a result of this “horrible” trade along with shipping out Dakari Johnson the Thunder now have a $10.8 million trade exception they didn’t have before.
 

tlance

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You're making my point. 2022 will be loaded. It will basically be a double class. So lottery level talent won't just be 1-14 it will be 1-28. The late first round talent will be in the second round.
Then 2023 will like you said be similar to 2006 because the high school talent went in 2022. Then again like you said the following years will be regular years.
But those two years will play out as a strong and weak draft.

I don't think you are getting what I am saying.

2022 should be really good because it will combine the best 1 and dones with the best high school players.

2023 IS NOT like 2006 though. In that year, the top prospects from the high school class of 2005 went to the draft in 2005. The top high school players from '06 were forced to go to college. So, in theory all of the elite prospects should have been gone.

That IS NOT what is happening in 2023, because the top high school players from that class can enter the draft.
 

tlance

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You're making my point. 2022 will be loaded. It will basically be a double class. So lottery level talent won't just be 1-14 it will be 1-28. The late first round talent will be in the second round.
Then 2023 will like you said be similar to 2006 because the high school talent went in 2022. Then again like you said the following years will be regular years.
But those two years will play out as a strong and weak draft.

Also,

You are vastly overstating the impact in 2022, because it is harder to project high school players. Usually there aren't more than a small handful that make the jump. It shouldn't be a double class. You will just be adding in 6-8 high end prospects to a normal class.

If 15 high schoolers come out, I can almost guarantee that at least a few don't get drafted in round 1.

But yes, 2022 should be good.
 

Scapegoat

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I don't think you are getting what I am saying.

2022 should be really good because it will combine the best 1 and dones with the best high school players.

2023 IS NOT like 2006 though. In that year, the top prospects from the high school class of 2005 went to the draft in 2005. The top high school players from '06 were forced to go to college. So, in theory all of the elite prospects should have been gone.

That IS NOT what is happening in 2023, because the top high school players from that class can enter the draft.

I get what you're saying. And looks like you're right about 2023. I'm not sure what I was thinking.
 

Scapegoat

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Also,

You are vastly overstating the impact in 2022, because it is harder to project high school players. Usually there aren't more than a small handful that make the jump. It shouldn't be a double class. You will just be adding in 6-8 high end prospects to a normal class.

If 15 high schoolers come out, I can almost guarantee that at least a few don't get drafted in round 1.

But yes, 2022 should be good.

I still disagree on this one. I feel you are vastly understating 2022. No way 6-8. It will be a double draft class.
But again. This is something we will get to see play out.
 

tlance

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I still disagree on this one. I feel you are vastly understating 2022. No way 6-8. It will be a double draft class.
But again. This is something we will get to see play out.

Might be different now with the G league,

But I am pretty sure there have never been more than 5 or 6 to make the jump from high school. Most years even less than that.

Because there are a lot of guys like Colin Sexton and Trae Young who weren't good enough coming out of high school, but blew up in college. It is typically the Marvin Bagleys, Porter Jr., and JJJ type prospects who make the jump. And there aren't that many of those.
 

Scapegoat

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Might be different now with the G league,

But I am pretty sure there have never been more than 5 or 6 to make the jump from high school. Most years even less than that.

Because there are a lot of guys like Colin Sexton and Trae Young who weren't good enough coming out of high school, but blew up in college. It is typically the Marvin Bagleys, Porter Jr., and JJJ type prospects who make the jump. And there aren't that many of those.


There will be around 20 HS players enter the draft. That will push the late first rounders into the second. As this draft gets closer you will see the price for these picks get very expensive.
 

tlance

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There will be around 20 HS players enter the draft. That will push the late first rounders into the second. As this draft gets closer you will see the price for these picks get very expensive.

No way.

If that happens, at least half will never make out of the G league.

Hell, I used to coach a kid who was ranked #15 by ESPN and like 20 something by Rivals. If he had been allowed, he would of submitted for the draft out of high school. Kid never played more than 12 minutes per game in his 2 years at Maryland before they revoked his scholarship and told him to transfer. He was lazy as hell so he never developed.

There is a huge gap between the top few prospects and players ranked 10-50. Some of those guys might come out, but many won't make it.
 

Scapegoat

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No way.

If that happens, at least half will never make out of the G league.

Hell, I used to coach a kid who was ranked #15 by ESPN and like 20 something by Rivals. If he had been allowed, he would of submitted for the draft out of high school. Kid never played more than 12 minutes per game in his 2 years at Maryland before they revoked his scholarship and told him to transfer. He was lazy as hell so he never developed.

There is a huge gap between the top few prospects and players ranked 10-50. Some of those guys might come out, but many won't make it.

I don't believe I ever said they would all be successful. But the first year the door is open there will be a lot of kids go through. And NBA GM's will be afraid to not draft them.
 

tlance

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I don't believe I ever said they would all be successful. But the first year the door is open there will be a lot of kids go through. And NBA GM's will be afraid to not draft them.

Honestly,

Not if they are getting good advice.

Again though, if the plan is to play a couple years in the G league, then maybe you are right. Will be interesting to see.

Still I think at least half of the top 20 go to college in 2022, if not more.
 

Scapegoat

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Honestly,

Not if they are getting good advice.

Again though, if the plan is to play a couple years in the G league, then maybe you are right. Will be interesting to see.

Still I think at least half of the top 20 go to college in 2022, if not more.

Since the Thunder don't have a pick I hope you're right.
 

shopson67

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As a result of this “horrible” trade along with shipping out Dakari Johnson the Thunder now have a $10.8 million trade exception they didn’t have before.

Do you really think they'll use it? It would completely negate any savings made with the Melo dump.
 

shopson67

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Might be different now with the G league,

But I am pretty sure there have never been more than 5 or 6 to make the jump from high school. Most years even less than that.

Because there are a lot of guys like Colin Sexton and Trae Young who weren't good enough coming out of high school, but blew up in college. It is typically the Marvin Bagleys, Porter Jr., and JJJ type prospects who make the jump. And there aren't that many of those.

Take a look at the top recruit list from 2017 (dated 4/20/17) and how many of them were drafted in 2018. Your estimates may be low (sorry about the lack of formatting). By the way, Sexton was ranked tied for 4th and Trae was 21st in the class, not exactly "not good enough".

Rank Player Pos. Ht School State College 247 ESPN Scout Rivals Avg.
1 Michael Porter Jr. SF 6-10 Nathan Hale WA Missouri 1 1 1 1 1.00
2 Mohamed Bamba C 6-11 Westtown School PA Uncommitted 2 3 2 2 2.25
3 DeAndre Ayton C 7-0 Hillcrest Academy AZ Arizona 4 2 3 3 3.00
T4 Wendell Carter Jr. PF 6-10 Pace Academy GA Duke 9 4 4 5 5.50
T4 Trevon Duval PG 6-3 IMG Academy FL Uncommitted 6 5 7 4 5.50
T4 Collin Sexton SG 6-2 Pebblebrook GA Alabama 3 6 6 7 5.50
7 Jaren Jackson PF 6-10 La Lumiere IN Michigan St. 7 8 5 6 6.50
8 Mitchell Robinson C 7-0 Chalmette LA W. Kentucky 5 10 8 8 7.75
9 Kevin Knox SF 6-8 Tampa Catholic FL Uncommitted 17 9 9 9 11.00
10 Troy Brown Jr. SF 6-7 Centennial NV Oregon 11 14 13 12 12.50
11 Jarred Vanderbilt PF 6-8 Victory Prep TX Kentucky 8 18 11 13 12.50
12 Brandon McCoy C 6-10 Cathedral Catholic CA Uncommitted 15 15 12 11 13.25
13 P.J. Washington PF 6-8 Findlay Prep NV Kentucky 18 11 14 14 14.25
14 Lonnie Walker SF 6-5 Reading PA Miami 13 12 15 18 14.50
15 Gary Trent Jr. SG 6-5 Prolific Prep CA Duke 16 7 19 17 14.75
16 Nick Richards C 6-11 Patrick School NJ Kentucky 14 16 16 16 15.50
17 Brian Bowen SF 6-7 La Lumiere IN Uncommitted 12 13 18 20 15.75
18 Billy Preston PF 6-10 Oak Hill VA Kansas 21 17 21 10 17.25
19 Kris Wilkes SF 6-8 North Central IN UCLA 22 24 17 19 20.50
20 Jaylen Hands PG 6-0 Foothills Christian CA UCLA 20 19 25 22 21.50
21 Trae Young PG 6-2 Norman North OK Uncommitted 27 22 23 15 21.75
22 Quade Green PG 6-1 Neumann-Goretti PA Kentucky 30 23 22 21 24.00
23 Malik Williams PF 7-0 Snider IN Louisville 28 27 20 27 25.50
24 M.J. Walker SG 6-5 Jonesboro GA Uncommitted 32 25 28 24 27.25
25 Nick Weatherspoon PG 6-2 Jackson Magnet MS Mississippi St. 23 34 24 32 28.25
26 Jalek Felton SG 6-2 Gray Collegiate SC North Carolina 35 26 27 26 28.50
T27 John Petty SG 6-5 Jemison AL Alabama 31 21 45 25 30.50
T27 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 6-5 Hamilton Heights TN Kentucky 19 33 39 31 30.50
29 Paul Scruggs PG 6-4 Prolific Prep CA Xavier 29 30 29 36 31.00
30 Lindell Wigginton SG 6-1 Oak Hill VA Iowa State 43 37 32 23 33.75
 
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