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My PC's back... and so are my previews! (2018 CFB Preview thread, part 1)

Dolgevillefootballfan

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Sorry for being away for a while. Do you know that whole mess with the Windows 10 update that victimized QUITE a few PC's? Well, that fried my old laptop (at 6 to 7 years of continuous work).

The good news though, is that I got a new one just today! And after going through a song-and-dance with Avast Antivirus, it's up and running. That means I'm ready to show you my thoughts and give you my picks for the upcoming college football season (And yes, you guys can chime in as well)!

Coming up later will be the schedule for my preview segments. Look forward to it!
 

Droopdog51

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Sorry for being away for a while. Do you know that whole mess with the Windows 10 update that victimized QUITE a few PC's? Well, that fried my old laptop (at 6 to 7 years of continuous work).

The good news though, is that I got a new one just today! And after going through a song-and-dance with Avast Antivirus, it's up and running. That means I'm ready to show you my thoughts and give you my picks for the upcoming college football season (And yes, you guys can chime in as well)!

Coming up later will be the schedule for my preview segments. Look forward to it!

We have all been waiting and praying for this day......
ShadowyFreshBoa-size_restricted.gif
 

Dolgevillefootballfan

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Our itinerary for the summer

Nice to see such enthusiasm from such people as @Droopdog51 and many others! Now here is the schedule I'll be following for this year's previews:

Group of Five Conferences (to be done on this thread):
Week of May 28th: Sun Belt
(I've got a lot to say about one particular team from Louisiana, so this conference will go first.) [BONUS: I'll also look at Liberty, New Mexico State, and UMass here!]
Week of June 4th: American (AKA: "How long can Central Florida keep this joyride going?")
Week of June 11th: Mountain West (Hmmm... Athlon Sports has Utah State ranked pretty high. Do they know something we don't?)
Week of June 18th: Conference USA (11-3 last season, and Lane Kiffin's STILL at FAU? Does he spy a "New Year's Six" bowl on the horizon?)
Week of June 25th: MAC (Toledo all the way, baby! Wait... where did Logan Woodside go?)

Power 5 Conferences (to be done on separate threads):
Week of July 2nd: SEC (
Geez, you guys! One stupid game, and now EVERYONE'S calling Tua Tagovailoa the next Tom Brady! Can he lift up that rebuilding Tide defense? I guess we'll find out, now will we?)
Week of July 9th: Big 10 (On that note, will Shea Patterson save Jim Harbaugh's bacon at Michigan? He BETTER do it; Ohio State's starting over at QB.)
Week of July 16th: Big 12 (AKA: Texas fans bitching over their underachieving Longhorns... AGAIN.) [BONUS: Included will be FCS picks, as well as Army, BYU, and Notre Dame previews!]
Week of July 23rd: PAC-12 (This could be the year USC plays for the national title... wait, where did Sam Darnold go? Oh, there's Washington... wait, they play Auburn in Week 1. Well... NOW what do we do?)
Week of July 30th: ACC (I SO want to have Syracuse go last this year... mainly because I'm getting nausious over the prospect of Clemson-Bama Part 4.)
August 8th: Playoff and bowl predictions

...And there you go! Now if you excuse me, I need to sharpen my teeth for THAT team from Louisiana. See ya on Monday!
 

Dolgevillefootballfan

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Louisiana-Monroe

The first preview segment for the 2018 season: The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Last season: So why are the Warhawks going first, you ask? Because on November 6th of last year, UL-Monroe stood on the brink of history. They had JUST defeated Sun Belt power App. State, while meanwhile Florida State was trying to set up a rematch of a postponed game from September... just because they were desperate to keep their bowl streak alive.
So imagine how wonderful it would have been if UL-Monroe said "No". That's right! I WANTED the Warhawks to say "No way! Stay home during the holidays, you jackpipes. Wallow in your own mediocrity and abject failure!" It would have sent a great message to the other "Group of Five" schools; that they too can say "No" to those "Power 5" bullies!

...But the Warhawks agreed to the rematch. So FSU beat them up 42-10 to send UL-Monroe to another 4-8 record... and karmic payback in 2018. Ain't that right, coach Viator?
...NO?! What do you mean, no?

Good news: Oooo... I didn't know you had Caleb Evans at QB! He looked pretty good last season, and I expect him to be better as a junior. The kicking game looks good, Caleb will have a group of talented WR's to throw to, and the schedule's not AS bad as last year's.

Bad news: Improving the defense is a MUST for ULM; it ranked 2nd-to-last overall last season.

2018 X-factor: RB Derrick Gore- This time, for different reasons. He was okay in his 1st year in Monroe, but imagine how much better the Warhawk offense will be if he steps up his game.

Key games:
9/8 @ Southern Miss (If the Warhawks are to make a bowl in 2018, they need to win more games on the road. And this one in Hattiesburg looks winnable.)
9/22 vs. Troy (The Sun Belt opener for UL-Monroe... and a BIG one at that.)
11/17 @ Arkansas State (The nadir for ULM's defense in 2017 was the 67-50 loss they suffered on Senior Day against the Red Wolves.)
11/24 vs. UL-Lafayette (On that note, how cool does THIS game look on ULM's Senior Day? The Warhawks won last year's installment 57-50.)

Bottom line: With the Sun Belt now split into 2 divisions, nearly every team in the conference are now dreaming of a conference prize. And it looks like UL-Monroe can be one of the contenders... if the offense delivers on it's promise. And the defense shows ANY sigh of improvement.
 

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Louisiana-Lafayette

Preview segment: The UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

Last season: Man! From 2011 to 2014, life was sweet for the Ragin' Cajuns as they had 4 straight 9-4 seasons and 4 straight bowl wins. And after 2 straight losing season in 2015 and 2016, Mark Hudspeth looked to be safe with his team at 5-5.
Then they go and lose to a 1-9 Georgia Southern team on Senior Day, and then give up 63 points against App. State in their final game, and there you go! UL-Lafayette was out of a bowl, and Hudspeth was out of a job. Enter former Arizona State offensive coordinator Billy Napier, who has been hired to clean up this mess.

Bad news: The special teams flash promise, but needs to be more consistent. And much like UL-Monroe, the Cajuns had BIG problems on defense in 2017 that needs to be fixed quick...

Good news: ...so the fact the defense is starting over might not be a bad thing. RB and WR positions look to be in good hands, with it's top 6 receivers and RB Trey Ragas still in Lafayette.

2018 X-factor: Quarterback- The QB position was a revolving door for the Cajuns in 2017, and the new coach has declared a "clean slate" in deciding which one of the 3 QB's he has will start the opener. Something tells me that this will be a season-long issue for the Cajuns.

Key games:
9/1 vs. Grambling (Speaking of the opener, let's hope that the Cajuns will be ready as Grambling is a dangerous FCS team.)
10/6 @ Texas State (Texas State as a "Key game"? Well you see, this game comes after Alabama will clobber the Cajuns in Tuscaloosa. So we'll see how [or if] the Cajuns rebound.)
10/27 vs. Arkansas State (Sandwitched between road games at Troy and App. State is this big contest in the new Sun Belt West division.)
11/24 @ UL-Monroe (As mentioned earlier, UL-Monroe won a wild 56-50 brawl with the Cajuns last year. And you KNOW the Cajuns want payback.)

Bottom line: Oh man... With worries at quarterback and on defense, is UL-Monroe about to have a better season than UL-Lafayette? Fans in Lafayette are hoping that's not the case, so we'll see what Coach Napier does in his first year. If his squad gets 6 wins, it'll bode well for the Cajuns' future.
 

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Texas State

Preview segment: The Texas State Bobcats

Last season: If you haven't noticed already, the Sun Belt has divided itself into 2 divisions (East and West) and will now have a championship game in December (like almost everybody else). And our friends over at San Marcos, Texas is in the West division.
Sayyyy... This might just be the thing Texas State needs to reverse their fortunes; they were a miserable 2-10 last year.

Bad news: The QB spot is up for grabs, and once again, the Bobcats are fielding one of the younger teams in the nation.

Good news: Texas State's top 5 rushers are back, and their linebacker unit looks good. Plus, most of this team IS young, but they have had some playing time.

Key games:
9/15 @ South Alabama (The Bobcats's opener in the new-look Sun Belt.)
10/11 vs. Georgia Southern (We'll see if Texas State can stop that GSU option-attack in this Thursday night game.)
11/3 @ Georgia State (By this time, we'll know how much better the Bobcats are. Also, this starts a HARD November as they also must deal with App. State, Troy, and Arkansas State.)

Bottom line: Let's hope for some true progress for Texas State in Everett Withers's 3rd year. Until then, we can safely ignore Texas State again this season.
 

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Georgia State

Preview segment: The Georgia State Panthers

Last season: Ah... NOW we're getting our first whiff of team success on this thread. And, SURPRISE! It's coming from little ol' Georgia State!
I mean, it didn't look good for the Panthers when they started 2017; they lost to FCS team Tennessee State, and then Penn State whacked them 56-0. But thanks to the hard work of Conner Manning and a OK defense, Georgia State won a lot of close games in conference and even won the Cure Bowl! In fact, they were still sniffing the Sun Belt championship all the way to Rivalry Week.

Bad news: Sadly, Conner Manning is gone and 3 QB's are now fighting to replace him. The Panthers also lose a few good players in the secondary, and going to NC State and Memphis early will not help matters.

Good news: Whoever becomes the starting QB will have a LOT of good receivers to throw to. Does the name "Penny Hart" ring a bell to anyone?

2018 X-factor: Georgia State's O-line- The Panthers' O-line was a little weak last season. But thanks to 4 starters returning and better depth, it could turn into a strength sooner than later.

Key games:
8/30 vs. Kennesaw State (Be careful, Panthers! Kennesaw State is gonna be a handful in the FCS this season.)
9/29 vs. UL-Monroe (In the Panthers' conference opener, we'll see how well they handle the Warhawk offense.)
10/4 @ Troy (Both this [and Arkansas State] will be difficult Thursday-night road tests for the Panthers.)
11/24 @ Georgia Southern (Weaklings no more! Georgia State has beaten the Eagles 3 years in a row now.)

Bottom line: With some new pieces to deal with, a harder schedule, and everyone in the Sun Belt now taking them seriously, it doesn't look good for Georgia State's chances to return to a bowl. But Shawn Elliott surprised a lot of people last year, so just know that in 2018 the Panthers won't go down without a fight.
 

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Troy

Preview segment: The Troy Trojans

Last season: :music: See that? That's the sign of happiness and content. And right now, the Troy Trojans are VERY content as they come off the best season in school history; an 11-2 mark with a big win over LSU and Brandon Slivers having another great year. Now in the new-look Sun Belt, the Trojans look to keep it going...

Bad news: ...Oh NO! The almighty Slivers is GONE! And to make matters worse, nobody knows who'll replace him yet! Oh, and 6 starters from a darn-good defense in 2017 left as well.

Good news: But the people who ARE returning on defense for Troy are among-st the best in the Sun Belt; FS Cedarius Rookard is the one I'm watching. The offensive skill positions will help the new QB out a lot, as we have quite a few WR's and Jordan Chunn at RB...

More bad news: ...wait, WHAT? Jordan Chunn's gone too?! Well, super.

Key games:
9/1 vs. Boise State (It'll be interesting to see how Troy coach Neil Brown handles the mighty Broncos, especially with no more Slivers and no more Chunn.)
9/22 @ UL-Monroe (This is Troy's conference opener, and a scary one at that; the Warhawks can put up some points.)
10/23 @ South Alabama (As I said, Troy had a great 2017. Their only real blemish on the year? A loss at home to in-state rival South Alabama that would later cost them the outright Sun Belt title and year-end national ranking. The hatred WILL flow in this Tuesday-night game.)
11/24 @ Appalachian State (Hey, look Troy! App. State's breaking in a new QB as well. And they don't care; they want to win the new East division just as badly as you do.)

Bottom line: I'm surprised nobody had snatched up Neil Brown yet; he's created himself a Sun Belt power here. And despite losing some big-league players, there's still talent left over to snap up another Sun Belt title.
But will they topple App. State? ...Ah, I'll answer that question later.
 

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Appalachian State

Preview segment: The Appalachian State Mountaineers

Last season: Despite some odd occurrences (losing to UMass and UL-Monroe), it was another "hot, hot, hot" year for App. State as they grabbed another Sun Belt title (just like Troy). Plus, they smoked Toledo in a bowl game 34-0. But now this Sun Belt power is entering 2018 with a few questions (also like Troy).

Good news: App. State looks like they're better equipped to handle losing a multi-year QB than Troy is; RB Jalin Moore is back to lead the offense, and new QB Zac Thomas DOES have game experience. On defense, the secondary looks to be pretty tough.

Bad news: The rest of the defense, though, is a worry; it's got a new coordinator (Nate Woody left for Georgia Tech) and only 5 starters back.

Key games:
9/1 @ Penn State (Despite losing QUITE a few people, Penn State's defense still looks to be good. Remember that, Mountaineers.)
10/9 @ Arkansas State (After dodging the Red Wolves for the last 2 years, App. State now must play them in Jonesboro. And it may be a preview of the Sun Belt title game.)
10/25 @ Georgia Southern (By the time this Thursday night game comes around, the Eagles should have something going.)
11/24 vs. Troy (Trust me: This one WILL decide the East division one way or the other.)

Bottom line: The last 2 years had been great for App. State, but now they must adjust to a few new faces and a new division. If they manage to patch up things on defense, the Mountaineers could have another Sun Belt title in December. And best of all, they won't have to share it with anyone else this time!
 

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Coastal Carolina

Preview segment: The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Last season: It went as expected as the new team from Conway, S.C went 3-9 in it's 1st year.

2018 X-factor: Head coach Joe Moglia- Call me slow, but I didn't find out until recently that Mr. Moglia had an allergic reaction in his lungs that made him sit out the 2017 season. I thought he had left the team high and dry!
But it is good to see Joe back. Now let's see if his presence on the sideline will help the Chanticleers out.

Good news: The running-back and wide-receiver positions looks good; Boston College transfer Marcus Outlow is the one to watch.

Bad news: Questions abound on defense, as quite a few good men had left. Oh, and Coastal's yet ANOTHER team with QB issues; they've used 13 QB's over the past 2 years alone! Hopefully, that merry-go-round will stop shortly.

Key games:
9/1 @ South Carolina (Remember when Coastal went to Arkansas and almost shocked the Razorbacks? The Gamecocks certainly will.)
10/27 @ Georgia State (One of the games Coastal would like to win in order to boost their Sun Belt profile.)
11/17 vs. Georgia Southern (Coastal DID get better at the end of the season, beating Idaho and Georgia Southern over their last 2 games. And thanks to a scheduling quark, Coastal gets to beat the Eagles on Senior Day... again!)

Bottom line: Coastal's still adjusting to the FBS ranks, and quarterback issues need to get settled. This is gonna take a while for the Chanticleers to be a good FBS squad, but at least with Joe Moglia back we'll have something to talk about.
 

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South Alabama

Preview segment: The South Alabama Jaguars

Last season: It was a great ride that Joey Jones took us on, as he helped South Alabama acquaint itself in the FBS ranks. But after a couple of widely inconsistent years in Mobile (including a 4-8 mark last year), Joey's off to bigger things.
Enter former FCS big-wig Scott Campbell, who has QUITE a few things to clean up here.

Bad news: Chief among them is fixing the running game; the Jaguars have no go-to running back and the O-line needs to be more consistent.

Good news: The passing game has a better outlook, as the WR corps are pretty deep. The kicking game will be a menace for USA's opponents, and the secondary has great upside.

Key games:
9/1 vs. Louisiana Tech (This should be a competitive opener, and the Jaguars should win if their offense shows up.)
10/6 @ Georgia Southern (Unquestionably, USA's lowest point in 2017 was losing 52-0 to Georgia Southern... in Mobile.)
10/23 vs. Troy (On that note, their best 2017 moment was upsetting Troy 19-8. In the rematch, this in-state rivalry will be real.)
11/3 @ Arkansas State (The Jaguars managed to beat the Red Wolves last year 24-19.)

Bottom line: Every conference in the FBS has a "wild-card", and in the Sun Belt it's South Alabama. I mean, they got talent, but can the new coaching staff fix all of their problems quick enough? Most likely, the Jaguars will have to wait it out in 2018 with no bowl berth. But you never know...
 

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Georgia Southern

Preview segment: The Georgia Southern Eagles

Last season: After a 0-6 start in 2017 (which included a loss to New Hampshire), it was "good riddance to bad rubbish" to coach Tyson Summers. In came Chad Lunsford as the interim coach. And even though the Eagles finished the season 2-10, the team's improvement was enough to give Chad the full-time job.

Good news: The mood seems to be better in Statesboro than it was last year, as Chad is going back to the triple-option offense that gave the Eagles so much success. And he'll have people like RB Wesley Fields to help him out. The defense returns 9 starters, including some dominant corners.

Bad news: Despite those 9 starters returning, the Eagles defense is still a worry [especially on the D-line].

2018 X-factor: QB Shai Werts- Shai showed some flashes of greatness last year, but his continued improvement is a must for the Eagles offense to get going.

Key games:
9/1 vs. South Carolina State (If the Eagles are ready to make a move upwards this year, they should handle this FCS team... right?)
9/29 vs. Arkansas State (An important Sun Belt opener for the Eagles; they NEED to make the heavyweights in the Sun Belt fear them again.)
10/25 vs. Appalachian State (Case in point: This Thursday night game. Breaking that Mountaineer defense will be a must here.)
11/24 @ Georgia State (As the Eagles's star fell, the Panthers's ascended. It'll be fun to see if the Eagles can snap that 3-game slide against their new rivals.)

Bottom line: Georgia Southern isn't ready to challenge Troy for the East division just yet, but there's good room for improvement in 2018. It helps that the Eagles get Troy, App. State, and Arkansas State at home.
If they win 1 or 2 of those games, a bowl trip could be coming to Statesboro. Otherwise, Chad Lunsford will have to wait until 2019 for a leap up.
 

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Arkansas State

The final preview segment for the Sun Belt: The Arkansas State Red Wolves

Last season: Another relatively good year for Arkansas State as they went 7-5 while sporting a Top-10 offense. Still, losing the Sun Belt title to Troy and their bowl game to Middle Tennessee had to sting for the Red Wolves.

Good news: Justice Hansen is back for 1 more year, and with a strong group of WR's we can expect more proud numbers through the air.

Bad news: The Red Wolves are confident they can replace Ja'Von Rolland-Jones on defense, but it'll still be hard on a D-line that's a little thin.

2018 X-factor: Red-zone offense- In 2017, Arkansas State had a lot of problems scoring in the red zone as the running game struggled. Hopefully with 4 starters returning on the O-line, that problem will get fixed.

Key games:
9/22 vs. UNLV (Don't scoff at this game, folks. UNLV looks to be a better team this year, so winning this one would be nice for Arkansas State to take into conference play...)
9/29 @ Georgia Southern (...which starts with a familiar foe in the Eagles.)
10/9 vs. Appalachian State (See my Appalachian State preview.)
11/17 vs. UL-Monroe (In the new Sun Belt West division, Arkansas State is the huge favorite. That being said, if the Warhawks are within striking distance by this time, the Red Wolves' Senior Day could get ugly.)

Bottom line: It's a no contest; with all that firepower returning to Jonesboro, Arkansas State (to me) looks like a shoo-in for the Sun Belt West title and the favorite to win the conference. But they must remain vigilant! If they don't patch up the holes on their defense, there's a chance the West could fall to someone else.
 

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Sun Belt predictions

And here we go with my first round of predictions! Here's how I see the Sun Belt shaking out in 2018:

East Division:
1. Appalachian State (Conference champs)
2. Troy
3. Georgia Southern
4. Georgia State
5. Coastal Carolina

West Division:
1. Arkansas State
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. South Alabama
5. Texas State

Coming up tomorrow, it's Part 1 of the independents (UMass, Liberty, and New Mexico State)!
 

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Liberty

Preview segment: The Liberty Flames

Last season: So here we are. Yet another school is trying their luck at life in the FBS. And this school from Lynchburg, Virginia is hoping the transition goes as well as Air Force in 1958, Marshall in 1997, Georgia Southern in 2014, and the recent success of App. State.

Little history lesson: The Flames started out as a NAIA independent in 1973 before moving to Division II in 1981. After milling along for 20 years they joined the Big South in 2002, and had been in every conference race since 2007. In fact, from 2007 to 2016 Liberty won (or at least shared) the Big South title 8 times.
Now led by former Buffalo and Kansas coach Turner Gill, Liberty hopes to keep the good times rolling.

Good news: The pass defense looks good, and Liberty's O-line is perhaps the best they've ever had in school history. QB Buckshot Calvert is a true gamer.

Bad news: Sadly, Mr. Calvert can't help out on defense; the run defense is giving everyone cause for concern. Also, depth at running back is not great.

Key games:
9/1 vs. Old Dominion (It's Liberty's official debut as an FBS member, and it should be an intriguing game.)
9/8 @ Army (And here's Liberty's first road game in the FBS. Again, another intriguing contest.)
10/6 @ New Mexico State (This begins a home-and-home series between these 2 independents, to be played over... THIS SEASON?!)
11/10 @ Virginia (Finally! Liberty will see some familiar faces from their home state.)

Bottom line: Much like every new team, we must wait and see how well they'll adjust to life inside the FBS. However, if Liberty wants a winning season this year they MUST solve their problems on defense.
 

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Massachusetts

Preview segment: The UMass Minutemen

Last season: Another rough 4-8 season. But at least the beleaguered Minutemen finished strong as they won 4 of their final 6 games.

Good news: Lots of firepower is coming back to UMass, including RB Marquis Young, a gaggle of good WR's, and strong QB Andrew Ford (22 TD's and only 4 INT's last year).

Bad news: The D-line will be a big question mark, as well as the kicking game.

Key games:
9/1 @ Boston College (Call me nuts, but maybe UMass can give the Eagles a run for their money this time.)
9/29 @ Ohio (Remember when UMass was part of the MAC? Well in this game, they'll visit an old acquaintance.)
10/27 @ UConn (One of the swing games UMass will need to win to better their bowl hopes.)
11/10 vs. BYU [in Foxboro] (Another showcase game for the Minutemen at Gilette Stadium. A bowl berth for UMass could be decided here...)
11/17 @ Georgia (...because they probably won't get a win in Athens.)

Bottom line: ...Wait a minute! Was I just talking about a possible bowl trip for the Minutemen? ...Ah, there's no way I'll see those guys in a bowl in 2018!
But with an experienced roster and a nicer schedule than in years' past, it IS a possible goal for them this fall.
 

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New Mexico State

Preview segment: The New Mexico State Aggies

Last season: You KNOW you've endured quite a lot as a football program when you celebrate a 7-6 season like it's Christmas Day. So after 57 years of waiting, you couldn't blame New Mexico State for being so giddy while winning that Arizona Bowl 26-20. This down-and-outer had accomplished something!
That wasn't enough to keep them in the Sun Belt, though, so the Aggies are trying to make it as an independent. And strangely, they could actually be okay with it in 2018.

Good news: The defense got WAY better over the 2017 season, and with 7 starters returning it could be even better in 2018. Special teams look okay, and the O-line returns quite a few people.

Bad news: Let's just say the offense is gonna take a step backwards. I mean, you cannot lose people like Tyler Rogers, Larry Rose III, and Gregory Hogan and NOT feel it.

Key games:
8/25 vs. Wyoming (The Cowboys are also replacing a multi-year starting QB, so this should be a good one.)
9/8 @ Utah State (It's the rematch of that Arizona Bowl! And stopping Utah State's offense will be key for NMSU here.)
9/15 vs. New Mexico (Man! The Aggies are gonna be busy in September. Not just with Utah State, but with their in-state rivals in the "Rio Grande Rivalry"...)
9/22 @ UTEP (...and then the annual "Battle For the Silver Spade" against the Miners.)
11/24 @ Liberty (As I mentioned earlier, the Aggies and the Flames has a home-and-home series this season. And in the finale, NMSU might be playing for a 6th win... or better!)

Bottom line: Oh, trust me: NMSU will have SOME form of regression on offense with all those big players gone. But the schedule's not too bad, so if the defense stands tall the Aggies will be fine. Their goal is to have back-to-back winning seasons... something they haven't had since the 60's.
 
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