10,000 Posts for a Flyers Cup in 2019

awaz · Apr 24, 2018

lasgop8 said:
Carey Price played for the Tri City Americans in the WHL.

I know?

raptorlife4 · Apr 24, 2018

My plan with the price trade was we can get a number one goalie in our lineup next year. Montreal could be looking to move him to go full rebuild. Is it worth it I don't know. But its something to consider

awaz · Apr 24, 2018

They are coming in to form and I'm on board for starting to add 'now' pieces.

If you want to argue they should try to sign Tavares in FA. I'm on board. If you want them to go after Statsny in FA to be a major 3C upgrade. I'm on board. John Carlson is UFA this summer too, I'm on board for adding him. JvR, Kane, Enstrom, Perron, Sbisa, De Haan, Hickey, Cole. On board for any one of those guys. Or even 2 or 3 of them.

Then, if they're top 2-3 in the division and top 10 in the league around the deadline next year, I start looking at rentals. Obviously a lot can change between now and then, but Drew Doughty is UFA next summer. Erik Karlsson. Jordan Eberle. Matt Duchene. Tyler Seguin. Jeff Skinner. Mike Smith. Oliver Ekman-Larsson. If the Kings, Sens, Isles, Stars, Canes, Flames, or Coyotes are out of it come trade deadline and don't work out a new contract, are those guys available? If so, and the Flyers are top 10, I'm interested in making a buy move.

IMO, it's feasible for the Flyers to have something like

Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
Skinner-Patrick-Voracek
Lindblom-Statsny-Simmonds
Raffl-Laughton-Weal

Provorov-Ghost
Cole-Sanheim
Hagg-MacDonald
Gudas/Myers

Smith
Elliot

For the drive next year.

Statsny @ UFA - 3 years 5 mil
Cole @ UFA - 4 years 4 mil
Skinner @ deadline - 1st and 3rd rounders (prorated 6 mil for the remainder of the season)
Smith @ deadline - one or two of Vorobyov/Ratcliffe/Sandstrom/one of this year's 1st round picks and a 2nd (prorated 5 mil for the remainder of the season)

And how good does that team look? That team is a contender. You add a top 9 center and a top 4 dman in free agency. Flyers can stomach those contracts easy. Then you go out and add where it looks like they may need to (scoring and goaltending) for the stretch run. All that without giving up too many major assets that impact the near future of the team. And without trading major pieces to solve a problem that may be solved with an elite prospect (Hart) in the next 1-3 years.

That's what a little patience over the past couple years gets you. And what a little more patience gets you. Because the year after you're still loaded with prospects. Frost can come in and replace Skinner if you let him walk. Hart can replace Smith and it's like nothing ever happened. In 2019-20 you start with a team you could argue is BETTER than that team because your pool is so deep. Then you have Allison knocking on the door. Ratcliffe. Laberge. Rubtsov. The first round picks from this draft. Couple of those guys might be gone in the deadline deals, but not all of them. And you have the future 1st round picks. So you have more chips to add at the deadline in 2020 to make a run at another cup.

mall3013 · Apr 24, 2018

Stupid question here. If Carter Hart is indeed the stud we all think he will be at some point, then how in the hell did he fall into our lap with the 40 something pick? How did the scouts from other teams miss this? I'll wait for your answers.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

mall3013 said:
Stupid question here. If Carter Hart is indeed the stud we all think he will be at some point, then how in the hell did he fall into our lap with the 40 something pick? How did the scouts from other teams miss this? I'll wait for your answers.

Goalies aren't usually drafted in the first round these days. In fact, he was the first goalie taken in that 2016 draft at 48th overall.

mall3013 · Apr 24, 2018

Maverick426h said:
Goalies aren't usually drafted in the first round these days. In fact, he was the first goalie taken in that 2016 draft at 48th overall.

I get that, but if they are scouting a future stud to be the backstop for the future, why wouldn't they take him early? I mean MAF was a top pick for the Pens not that long ago..I realize it was 2003 but still.

awaz · Apr 24, 2018

Maverick426h said:
Goalies aren't usually drafted in the first round these days. In fact, he was the first goalie taken in that 2016 draft at 48th overall.

Exactly.

First goalie taken..
2017 - 26th (2nd was way back at 54)
2016 - 48th (Hart)
2015 - 22nd (Samsonov)
2014 - 34th (MacDonald)
2013 - 36th (Fucale)
2012 - 24th (Subban)

Goalies are hard to project. That's why Hextall always says he wants to take a goalie in each draft. They're a crap shoot. Lundqvist was 205th. Rinne 258th. Bishop 85th. Quick 72nd.

Hart has just come up aces.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

mall3013 said:
I get that, but if they are scouting a future stud to be the backstop for the future, why wouldn't they take him early? I mean MAF was a top pick for the Pens not that long ago..I realize it was 2003 but still.

You don't know whether a goalie is going to be that stud until much later, but he has improved ever since and looks the part now more than ever. You just don't know until he plays pro hockey and can make it into the Nhl, but he has excelled at every level so far. I wouldn't bet against him and I'm glad we drafted him at that spot and not in round one also.

awaz · Apr 24, 2018

Good article on in Mall. Just look at all the guys on that list that never made the NHL and that we've never heard of. The stats say about 75% of first round picks should play at least 100 NHL games. You can see from the list of goalies the odds are more like 15-20%. Not worth the risk at that point.

Ranking Every Goalie Selected In The First Round Since 2000

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

awaz said:
Good article on in Mall. Just look at all the guys on that list that never made the NHL and that we've never heard of. The stats say about 75% of first round picks should play at least 100 NHL games. You can see from the list of goalies the odds are more like 15-20%. Not worth the risk at that point.

Ranking Every Goalie Selected In The First Round Since 2000

Yep, only about 7 of those 30 goalies even became true starters in the Nhl...Lol Not very good odds.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

Remember, we traded down and got Rubtsov and Laberge, only to still get Hart later on. Not because we didn't like him, but because we were pretty certain he'd still be there at 48.

awaz · Apr 24, 2018

They're in such a good position right now. I'm giddy thinking about it. Ya it sucks they lost this year, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. They've got a young team, loaded with prospects, and even more draft picks in the pipeline. Now you can start making moves towards being a cup contender instead of a rebuilding team. They have the pieces and the cap space to do it.

2 first round picks, the deepest prospect pool in hockey, up to $20M in cap space. And a team that already has good/great top end talent. Two of which (Ghost/Couturier) are on amazing contracts and 2-3 on ELC's. The future is so bright.

mall3013 · Apr 24, 2018

awaz said:
Good article on in Mall. Just look at all the guys on that list that never made the NHL and that we've never heard of. The stats say about 75% of first round picks should play at least 100 NHL games. You can see from the list of goalies the odds are more like 15-20%. Not worth the risk at that point.

Ranking Every Goalie Selected In The First Round Since 2000

Thanks for sharing. Very interesting.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

I wish Gudas and Weise weren't signed for two more seasons, but otherwise most all of our garbage is being cleaned up here.

Even MacDonald, while overpaid, has played pretty well for us, Lehtera too. We can live with those guys for another season or two. They might sit on the bench for great lengths as time goes by, but they can certainly teach some younger guys how to be a pro during that period.

awaz · Apr 24, 2018

Maverick426h said:
I wish Gudas and Weise weren't signed for two more seasons, but otherwise most all of our garbage is being cleaned up here.

Even MacDonald, while overpaid, has played pretty well for us, Lehtera too. We can live with those guys for another season or two. They might sit on the bench for great lengths as time goes by, but they can certainly teach some younger guys how to be a pro during that period.

Gudas and Weise aren't a real big problem either. Their contracts will be up before we need to start giving out big contracts to Provorov, Konecny, Patrick etc. A key to being a perennial cup contender is to limit your bad contracts. Either limit the number, or limit the impact. Weiss and Gudas are low impact. Weiss sucks, but 2.4 mil isn't a killer. And Gudas is normally an OK 5 or 6 dman which probably costs 2 mil anyway so he's only 1-1.5 mil overpaid. His glaring issue was he was used as a #3 for a good portion of the Pens series and got exposed.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

There are really only five roster spots available as things stand right now. I just hope guys like Weise and Gudas are sitting on the bench in favor of rookies or vets acquired this offseason. That's my main concern, ahead of the cap space they are taking.

We're going to have literally around $20 million to sign these players, 2-3 of which could be rookies we already have on entry level deals. So, that's maybe $18 million for two players, presumably a defender and a forward, and still change leftover to make deadline moves.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

awaz said:
They are coming in to form and I'm on board for starting to add 'now' pieces.

If you want to argue they should try to sign Tavares in FA. I'm on board. If you want them to go after Statsny in FA to be a major 3C upgrade. I'm on board. John Carlson is UFA this summer too, I'm on board for adding him. JvR, Kane, Enstrom, Perron, Sbisa, De Haan, Hickey, Cole. On board for any one of those guys. Or even 2 or 3 of them.

Then, if they're top 2-3 in the division and top 10 in the league around the deadline next year, I start looking at rentals. Obviously a lot can change between now and then, but Drew Doughty is UFA next summer. Erik Karlsson. Jordan Eberle. Matt Duchene. Tyler Seguin. Jeff Skinner. Mike Smith. Oliver Ekman-Larsson. If the Kings, Sens, Isles, Stars, Canes, Flames, or Coyotes are out of it come trade deadline and don't work out a new contract, are those guys available? If so, and the Flyers are top 10, I'm interested in making a buy move.

IMO, it's feasible for the Flyers to have something like

Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
Skinner-Patrick-Voracek
Lindblom-Statsny-Simmonds
Raffl-Laughton-Weal

Provorov-Ghost
Cole-Sanheim
Hagg-MacDonald
Gudas/Myers

Smith
Elliot

For the drive next year.

Statsny @ UFA - 3 years 5 mil
Cole @ UFA - 4 years 4 mil
Skinner @ deadline - 1st and 3rd rounders (prorated 6 mil for the remainder of the season)
Smith @ deadline - one or two of Vorobyov/Ratcliffe/Sandstrom/one of this year's 1st round picks and a 2nd (prorated 5 mil for the remainder of the season)

And how good does that team look? That team is a contender. You add a top 9 center and a top 4 dman in free agency. Flyers can stomach those contracts easy. Then you go out and add where it looks like they may need to (scoring and goaltending) for the stretch run. All that without giving up too many major assets that impact the near future of the team. And without trading major pieces to solve a problem that may be solved with an elite prospect (Hart) in the next 1-3 years.

That's what a little patience over the past couple years gets you. And what a little more patience gets you. Because the year after you're still loaded with prospects. Frost can come in and replace Skinner if you let him walk. Hart can replace Smith and it's like nothing ever happened. In 2019-20 you start with a team you could argue is BETTER than that team because your pool is so deep. Then you have Allison knocking on the door. Ratcliffe. Laberge. Rubtsov. The first round picks from this draft. Couple of those guys might be gone in the deadline deals, but not all of them. And you have the future 1st round picks. So you have more chips to add at the deadline in 2020 to make a run at another cup.

It would be a formidable roster, for sure. I like Stastny, Cole and Smith. Skinner is a bit of a wild card, but would certainly add some dynamic offensive talent. He maybe could be had this offseason instead of at the deadline.

I think Cole would be a little cheaper and Stastny a little more expensive. It perhaps evens out in the end.

But yes, assuming Patrick, Provorov, Konecny, Lindblom, Sanheim, Hagg and Myers each take the next step forward, that will be a strong roster one way or another by season's end.

Maverick426h · Apr 24, 2018

I think a buyout of Lehtera makes a lot of sense in the offseason as well if we are truly serious about contending for the Cup right away. That clears $3.33 million in space for next season and only adds $1.66 million the following year. For a guy who was benched 20 times this season and may be overtaken by someone like Vecchione anyway, it could be a wise decision to shed him and a lot of his cap hit too.

Then, a buyout of MacDonald could also make a lot of sense in the next offseason when he will finally be overtaken (for good) by cheaper, better guys like Myers and Morin anyway.

These moves would give us that extra $3-4 million in each of the next two seasons that might allow us to sign an extra player or make another deadline deal.

Maverick426h · Apr 25, 2018

Also, I would go after Tavares and Carlson big time. Signing just one of those two guys would be a game-changer for us moving forward. One of them creates real matchup issues for pretty much any team trying to fend off our top three scoring lines and the other would give us two complete pairs of defenders than can essentially do it all.

Not to mention, it takes away one of the best players from one of our rivals, which we should all be fine with.

Chris p Bacon · Apr 25, 2018

Maverick426h said:
That's the kind of move you make when we have literally everything we need to win multiple Cups except a goalie. I don't think we're there yet and when we are finally there, Hart could already be our starter, and at a much cheaper rate of pay mind you.

So another 3 yr plan l0l. Nice.

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