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Colin Cowherd makes his CFP predictions

NolePride

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You are thinking about it in a static fashion.

It isn't just who you lost to, but WHEN you lost to them. It's well established that early losses count against you FAR less than later ones. Also by how much. A 23-20 loss doesn't do nearly the damage needed to be the only factor in UW being left out.

I'm not saying a 12-1 UW is a lock, but they would have a higher chance than you are painting. The real question is how they looked against the rest of the ranked teams they played and how many close games do they have against any type of non ranked team. Those would be what it boils down to. So again, it's not quite as cut and dry as you want it to be.

I would say that neither team can be eliminated in week 1, but the road to a playoff berth is much more difficult for the loser.

Under the scenario I painted their chances would be nil. There's
not a potential top 10 team on their schedule other than Auburn.

Thus nothing to yank them up. They would climb in the polls, if
they continued to win, but even beating a Top 10 USC in the
title game probably wouldn't get them above 6th...maybe 5th.

If Bama lost in the SEC title game vs a 1-loss UGA team, Bama
would go over Washington based on beating Auburn.

People pay attention to the name on the front of the jersey.

Bama went to the playoffs, despite not playing for the league title.
Ohio St went to the playoffs despite not playing for its league title,
plus they got beat that year by the team that won the Big10.

Wisconsin was unbeaten and lost in the title game and stayed home.

The "name" Wisconsin doesn't have the same draw as the name
"Ohio St."
 

WizardHawk

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Under the scenario I painted their chances would be nil. There's
not a potential top 10 team on their schedule other than Auburn.

Thus nothing to yank them up. They would climb in the polls, if
they continued to win, but even beating a Top 10 USC in the
title game probably wouldn't get them above 6th...maybe 5th.

If Bama lost in the SEC title game vs a 1-loss UGA team, Bama
would go over Washington based on beating Auburn.

People pay attention to the name on the front of the jersey.

Bama went to the playoffs, despite not playing for the league title.
Ohio St went to the playoffs despite not playing for its league title,
plus they got beat that year by the team that won the Big10.

Wisconsin was unbeaten and lost in the title game and stayed home.

The "name" Wisconsin doesn't have the same draw as the name
"Ohio St."
Their trip to the CFP two years ago happened when they lost to the best team they faced and it was just before the end of the season. They had a fucking terrible OOC slate and beat a fraudulent Colorado team in the CCG.

I know how some of you want the CFP to work, but they have shown that isn't how it actually works.

If UW lost to Auburn and ran the table they have a decent shot at the playoffs. Period. History is on their side.
 

thunderc

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He is wrong, again.
 

Across The Field

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Out of these teams I give Washington the least likely chance. They have to play Auburn OOC. They lose that they need to go undefeated against the Pac 12. Which I don't think they can do. Penn State does have the schedule to do it, but can they overcome their personnel losses. I don't see anyway Bama and Clemson don't make it.
You're probably right about Clemson. They've got a cakewalk to the playoff, though they did show vulnerability last year with Bryant at QB. If he's still the starter this year, I wouldn't rule out an upset again, and this time it could be enough to keep them out depending on what happens in the other 4 conferences.
 

Bedlam131

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I think there is a legit chance Georgia doesn't make it to Atlanta

I disagree, I do not see anyone in the East that will give Georgia and real trouble with the exception of maybe Florida. The reason I mention Florida is because first, it is a rivalry game (the Oklahoma and Texas game is almost always interesting no matter where the teams are ranked and this seems to hold true for the Georgia/Florida game) and second it will depend on how ready Mullen gets Florida in his first year there. Auburn may give Georgia some trouble (Alabama too) but, Auburn is in the West.

Frankly, I think Alabama may have to watch out for a possible trap game against Mississippi State but, otherwise I agree with your assessment of their schedule. I do not think Jimbo Fisher is going to have A&M up and running at an SEC West competitive level in his first year.
 

ericd7633

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You're probably right about Clemson. They've got a cakewalk to the playoff, though they did show vulnerability last year with Bryant at QB. If he's still the starter this year, I wouldn't rule out an upset again, and this time it could be enough to keep them out depending on what happens in the other 4 conferences.

I think they'll be challenged against BC, FSU and A&M, and might even lose one, but they do have a pretty favorable schedule. No Miami or VT cross division. They do play alot of what I would call above average games. Teams that could finish in the 25-40 range with UL, NC State, Wake, A&M and South Carolina. They'd be better off losing to one of these teams than a team like BC or FSU because they would get a projected top 25 win.
 

Across The Field

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I think they'll be challenged against BC, FSU and A&M, and might even lose one, but they do have a pretty favorable schedule. No Miami or VT cross division. They do play alot of what I would call above average games. Teams that could finish in the 25-40 range with UL, NC State, Wake, A&M and South Carolina. They'd be better off losing to one of these teams than a team like BC or FSU because they would get a projected top 25 win.
The ACC Coastal is absolute junk this year. I don't think Miami or VT would give them much of a game honestly. I'd love to see calamity out of that division and we wind up with Duke or GT playing in the ACCCG.
 

7Samurai13

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The ACC Coastal is absolute junk this year. I don't think Miami or VT would give them much of a game honestly. I'd love to see calamity out of that division and we wind up with Duke or GT playing in the ACCCG.
2010 is the last time an ACC Coastal team won the conference.
 

ericd7633

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The ACC Coastal is absolute junk this year. I don't think Miami or VT would give them much of a game honestly. I'd love to see calamity out of that division and we wind up with Duke or GT playing in the ACCCG.

I don't think it's very good either. But those probably are the best two teams in it. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Ga Tech win the division. They get Miami at home and always play VT well.
 

ericd7633

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2010 is the last time an ACC Coastal team won the conference.

I think the Big 10 West might reach that level of drought. And that's with there being 3 different teams instead of just two with FSU and Clemson.
 

Across The Field

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I don't think it's very good either. But those probably are the best two teams in it. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Ga Tech win the division. They get Miami at home and always play VT well.
Good point. They beat VT last year and should've beaten Miami. I'm not thinking Miami will be so lucky this year. Either way, it's likely that if Clemson makes the ACCCG they're gonna win it.
 

Across The Field

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I think the Big 10 West might reach that level of drought. And that's with there being 3 different teams instead of just two with FSU and Clemson.
Who are you leaving out?
 

7Samurai13

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I think the Big 10 West might reach that level of drought. And that's with there being 3 different teams instead of just two with FSU and Clemson.
Since 2010 (for conferences that have title games)
PAC12 South is 1-6 in championship game
ACC Coastal is 1-7
B1G West is 0-4 (Wisconsin’s division is 2-5 winning the first two, losing the next 5)
SEC East is 1-7
 

Across The Field

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Since 2010 (for conferences that have title games)
PAC12 South is 1-6 in championship game
ACC Coastal is 1-7
B1G West is 0-4 (Wisconsin’s division is 2-5 winning the first two, losing the next 5)
SEC East is 1-7
Wow, I didn't realize how lopsided every conference is.
 

Across The Field

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Before the death of the Big12 title game the North was 4-11 and lost the last 7.
The North collapsed when Nebraska fell. There was never another real threat to win the conference coming from that division otherwise.
 

kburjr

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Since 2010 (for conferences that have title games)
PAC12 South is 1-6 in championship game
ACC Coastal is 1-7
B1G West is 0-4 (Wisconsin’s division is 2-5 winning the first two, losing the next 5)
SEC East is 1-7


Ah, yes, the good ol' Leaders and Legends days.
 
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